Vistra (VST) Stock Price & Analysis
VST$140.41-2.31 -1.62%
$47.13B
Market Cap
23.84
P/E
16.26
Forward P/E
48
Score
Vistra (VST) Stock Price & Analysis
VST price $140.41 -2.31 -1.62%
- Ticker
- VST
- Price
- $140.41
- Change
- -2.31 -1.62%
- Market cap ?
- $47.13B
- P/E ?
- 23.84
- Forward P/E ?
- 16.26
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.64%
- Beta ?
- 1.38
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- Stocklytics score
- 48
- Value
- 66
- Quality
- 30
- Growth
- 49
Stocklytics score rationale: value 66, quality 30, growth 49.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5164000000 | 5430000000 | 9144000000 | 11809000000 | 11443000000 | 12077000000 | 13728000000 | 14779000000 | 17224000000 | 17738000000 |
Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of…
Fair value
VST fair value $175.96. Price $140.41. Price is 20% below fair value.
Around fair value, and around its usual valuation.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 2.13B. Growth 18.03%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.91% (beta 1.4). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 335.64M. Net debt 19.58B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | — | 3.01 | — | 6.03B |
| 2026-08-07 | 0.77 | 1.61 | 4.02B | 5.46B |
| 2026-05-07 | 2.87 | 1.32 | 5.64B | 5.22B |
| 2026-02-26 | 0.54 | 2.31 | 4.58B | 5.79B |
| 2025-11-06 | 1.75 | 2.08 | 4.97B | 6.11B |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 4.25B | 4.74B |
| 2025-05-08 | -0.93 | 0.54 | 5.17B | 4.55B |
| 2025-02-27 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 7.36B | 3.91B |
| 2024-11-07 | 5.40 | 1.20 | 6.29B | 5.01B |
| 2024-08-08 | 0.90 | 1.38 | 3.69B | 3.96B |
| 2024-05-09 | 0.23 | 0.62 | 2.79B | 2.92B |
| 2024-02-28 | -0.55 | -0.04 | 3.39B | 3.47B |
| 2023-11-07 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 5.20B | 4.09B |
| 2023-08-09 | 1.17 | 0.82 | 3.19B | 5.91B |
| 2023-05-09 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 3.76B | 1.89B |
| 2023-03-01 | -0.73 | 4.63 | 4.31B | 6.43B |
| 2022-11-04 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 5.80B | 6.63B |
| 2022-08-05 | 1.48 | 0.24 | 1.59B | 4.01B |
| 2022-05-06 | -0.06 | 0.19 | 3.12B | 3.83B |
| 2022-02-25 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 3.50B | 6.01B |
| 2021-11-05 | 0.03 | 1.52 | 3.91B | 4.71B |
| 2021-08-05 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 2.75B | 3.31B |
| 2021-05-04 | -4.21 | -2.33 | 3.12B | 2.30B |
| 2021-02-26 | -0.02 | 0.87 | 2.54B | 4.69B |
| 2020-11-04 | 0.97 | 0.76 | 3.40B | 3.01B |
| 2020-08-05 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 2.52B | 3.03B |
| 2020-05-05 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 2.61B | 9.61B |
| 2020-02-28 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 2.83B | 3.15B |
| 2019-11-05 | 0.23 | 0.87 | 3.67B | 12.08B |
| 2019-08-02 | 0.70 | 0.26 | 2.30B | 1.96B |
| 2019-05-03 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 2.71B | 2.71B |
| 2019-02-28 | -0.37 | 0.50 | 2.78B | 3.46B |
| 2018-11-02 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 3.54B | 4.70B |
| 2018-08-06 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 2.53B | 3.47B |
| 2018-05-04 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 1.21B | 140.07M |
| 2018-02-26 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1.22B | 1.15B |
| 2017-11-03 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 1.67B | 1.63B |
| 2017-08-04 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 1.30B | 1.51B |
| 2017-05-18 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 1.18B | 1.26B |
| 2017-03-30 | -0.38 | — | 1.28B | — |
Dividends
Yield 0.65%. Payout ratio 22.53%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 84/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 23% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 9 separate years. Yield is 0.7%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | $0.23 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2026-06-22 | $0.23 | 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-20 | $0.23 | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2025-12-22 | $0.23 | 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2025-09-19 | $0.23 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.23 | 2025-06-18 | 2025-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-20 | $0.22 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.22 | 2024-12-20 | 2024-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.22 | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.22 | 2024-06-19 | 2024-06-28 | Quarterly |
| 2024-03-19 | $0.21 | 2024-03-20 | 2024-03-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-12-19 | $0.21 | 2023-12-20 | 2023-12-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-09-19 | $0.21 | 2023-09-20 | 2023-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-06-20 | $0.20 | 2023-06-21 | 2023-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-21 | $0.20 | 2023-03-22 | 2023-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2022-12-19 | $0.19 | 2022-12-20 | 2022-12-29 | Quarterly |
| 2022-09-20 | $0.18 | 2022-09-21 | 2022-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2022-06-21 | $0.18 | 2022-06-22 | 2022-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-21 | $0.17 | 2022-03-22 | 2022-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2021-12-15 | $0.15 | 2021-12-16 | 2021-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2021-09-15 | $0.15 | 2021-09-16 | 2021-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2021-06-15 | $0.15 | 2021-06-16 | 2021-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-16 | $0.15 | 2021-03-17 | 2021-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2020-12-15 | $0.14 | 2020-12-16 | 2020-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2020-09-15 | $0.14 | 2020-09-16 | 2020-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2020-06-15 | $0.14 | 2020-06-16 | 2020-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2020-03-16 | $0.14 | 2020-03-17 | 2020-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2019-12-13 | $0.12 | 2019-12-16 | 2019-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2019-09-13 | $0.12 | 2019-09-16 | 2019-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2019-06-13 | $0.12 | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-28 | Quarterly |
| 2019-03-14 | $0.12 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-03-29 | Quarterly |
| 2016-12-15 | $2.32 | 2016-12-19 | 2016-12-30 | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Sell | 20.00K | $165.00 | 3.30M |
| 2026-10-06 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 22.22K | $160.14 | 3.56M |
| 2026-09-08 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Sell | 20.00K | $151.03 | 3.02M |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 7.78K | $150.97 | 1.17M |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 28.83K | $151.85 | 4.38M |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 7.84K | $152.56 | 1.20M |
| 2026-09-01 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 4.46K | $135.25 | 603.89K |
| 2026-08-31 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 2.20K | $135.99 | 299.18K |
| 2026-08-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 2.00K | $135.00 | 270.00K |
| 2026-06-18 | SULT JOHN R | Sell | 6.50K | $170.00 | 1.10M |
| 2026-06-18 | Acosta Arcilia | Sell | 7.50K | $165.04 | 1.24M |
| 2026-06-18 | Acosta Arcilia | Sell | 7.50K | $170.00 | 1.27M |
| 2026-06-16 | HELM SCOTT B | Sell | 25.00K | $160.00 | 4.00M |
| 2026-06-15 | BARBAS PAUL M | Sell | 244 | $153.00 | 37.33K |
| 2026-06-12 | BARBAS PAUL M | Sell | 244 | $147.93 | 36.09K |
| 2026-06-02 | Montemayor Margaret | Sell | 4.60K | $160.00 | 736.00K |
| 2026-05-27 | Montemayor Margaret | Sell | 5.00K | $164.96 | 824.80K |
| 2026-05-15 | SULT JOHN R | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Pitesa John William | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | HELM SCOTT B | Buy | 2.01K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | BARBAS PAUL M | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Crutchfield Lisa | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Baiera Gavin R. | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Acosta Arcilia | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Ackermann Hilary E. | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Walters Robert Charles | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Lagacy Julie A. | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 10.00K | $160.31 | 1.60M |
| 2026-03-05 | Dore Stacey H | Buy | 12.86K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Dore Stacey H | Sell | 4.19K | $167.40 | 700.74K |
| 2026-03-05 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Buy | 6.11K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 2.84K | $167.40 | 475.08K |
| 2026-03-05 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Buy | 5.36K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 1.96K | $167.40 | 328.61K |
| 2026-03-05 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 28.28K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 9.38K | $167.40 | 1.57M |
| 2026-03-05 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Buy | 10.71K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Sell | 4.23K | $167.40 | 707.43K |
| 2026-03-05 | Montemayor Margaret | Buy | 1.99K | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Montemayor Margaret | Sell | 561 | $167.40 | 93.91K |
| 2026-02-24 | Dore Stacey H | Buy | 134.44K | $171.62 | 23.07M |
| 2026-02-24 | Dore Stacey H | Sell | 52.06K | $171.62 | 8.93M |
| 2026-02-24 | Dore Stacey H | Sell | 7.21K | $171.62 | 1.24M |
| 2026-02-24 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Buy | 79.44K | $171.62 | 13.63M |
| 2026-02-24 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 30.42K | $171.62 | 5.22M |
| 2026-02-24 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 4.26K | $171.62 | 731.79K |
| 2026-02-24 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Buy | 136.89K | $171.62 | 23.49M |
| 2026-02-24 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Sell | 53.02K | $171.62 | 9.10M |
| 2026-02-24 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | Sell | 7.35K | $171.62 | 1.26M |
| 2026-02-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 320.00K | $171.62 | 54.92M |
| 2026-02-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 125.05K | $171.62 | 21.46M |
| 2026-02-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 13.99K | $171.62 | 2.40M |
| 2026-02-24 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Buy | 79.44K | $171.62 | 13.63M |
| 2026-02-24 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Sell | 30.42K | $171.62 | 5.22M |
| 2026-02-24 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Sell | 4.26K | $171.62 | 731.79K |
| 2026-02-24 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Buy | 117.33K | $171.62 | 20.14M |
| 2026-02-24 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 45.32K | $171.62 | 7.78M |
| 2026-02-24 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 6.30K | $171.62 | 1.08M |
| 2025-12-12 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 27.75K | $14.03 | 389.32K |
| 2025-12-12 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 27.75K | $14.03 | 389.32K |
| 2025-12-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 22.25K | $14.03 | 312.18K |
| 2025-12-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.25K | $162.05 | 3.61M |
| 2025-12-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 27.75K | — | — |
| 2025-12-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.25K | $14.03 | 312.18K |
| 2025-11-28 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 3.60K | — | — |
| 2025-11-24 | Moore Stephanie Zapata | Sell | 8.22K | $173.35 | 1.42M |
| 2025-11-20 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Sell | 182 | $174.69 | 31.79K |
| 2025-11-20 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 1.14K | $174.69 | 199.32K |
| 2025-11-14 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Buy | 56.00K | $19.68 | 1.10M |
| 2025-11-14 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 56.00K | $168.86 | 9.46M |
| 2025-11-14 | HUDSON SCOTT A | Sell | 56.00K | $19.68 | 1.10M |
| 2025-11-14 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Buy | 58.27K | $22.98 | 1.34M |
| 2025-11-14 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Sell | 58.27K | $174.75 | 10.18M |
| 2025-11-14 | Kirby Carrie Lee | Sell | 58.27K | $22.98 | 1.34M |
| 2025-11-13 | Montemayor Margaret | Sell | 1.47K | $171.56 | 252.54K |
| 2025-11-12 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 28.07K | $14.03 | 393.75K |
| 2025-11-12 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 28.07K | $14.03 | 393.75K |
| 2025-11-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 21.93K | $14.03 | 307.75K |
| 2025-11-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 21.93K | $186.53 | 4.09M |
| 2025-11-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 27.89K | — | — |
| 2025-11-11 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 21.93K | $14.03 | 307.75K |
| 2025-10-29 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 9.64K | $19.68 | 189.73K |
| 2025-10-29 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 9.64K | $192.30 | 1.85M |
| 2025-10-29 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 9.64K | $19.68 | 189.73K |
| 2025-10-27 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 22.01K | $19.68 | 433.18K |
| 2025-10-27 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 20.47K | $203.64 | 4.17M |
| 2025-10-27 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.01K | $19.68 | 433.18K |
| 2025-10-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 19.60K | $196.46 | 3.85M |
| 2025-10-24 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-23 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-23 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 17.60K | $187.25 | 3.30M |
| 2025-10-23 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 2.01K | $186.00 | 374.42K |
| 2025-10-23 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-22 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-22 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 19.61K | $188.30 | 3.69M |
| 2025-10-22 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 22.00K | $19.68 | 432.96K |
| 2025-10-21 | BURKE JAMES A | Buy | 4.40K | $19.68 | 86.59K |
| 2025-10-21 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 2.00K | $193.15 | 387.27K |
| 2025-10-21 | BURKE JAMES A | Sell | 4.40K | $19.68 | 86.59K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.52K, holders +104 vs prior quarter. Ownership 84.51%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 29.06M | 584.12K | +2.05% | 4.61B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 21.39M | -102 | -0.00% | 3.39B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 16.94M | 37.07K | +0.22% | 2.69B |
| STATE STREET CORP | 16.85M | 79.97K | +0.48% | 2.67B |
| FMR LLC | 14.16M | -1.65M | -10.42% | 2.25B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 9.04M | 3.72K | +0.04% | 1.43B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 8.88M | 623.79K | +7.55% | 1.41B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 8.07M | 7.32M | +980.93% | 1.28B |
| NORGES BANK | 5.81M | 5.81M | New | 921.83M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 5.40M | 800.52K | +17.41% | 856.36M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 5.14M | 4.47M | +661.27% | 816.12M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 4.74M | 4.11M | +653.59% | 752.27M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 3.71M | 560.12K | +17.76% | 589.13M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 3.55M | 109.58K | +3.19% | 562.66M |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 3.25M | -4.24M | -56.57% | 528.20M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 3.21M | 2.53M | +374.82% | 509.03M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 3.16M | -790.96K | -20.02% | 501.63M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 3.02M | -125.89K | -4.00% | 479.39M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 2.95M | -31.40K | -1.05% | 468.35M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 2.85M | 207.78K | +7.86% | 452.26M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 2.69M | 94.55K | +3.65% | 426.06M |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 2.57M | 40.01K | +1.58% | 408.35M |
| SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC | 2.55M | 1.93M | +311.08% | 404.28M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 2.51M | 1.76M | +235.73% | 397.40M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 2.46M | 1.67M | +210.09% | 390.88M |
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