Alcoa (AA) Stock Price & Analysis

AA price $40.25 +0.04 +0.10%

Ticker
AA
Price
$40.25
Change
+0.04 +0.10%
Market cap ?
$10.62B
P/E ?
6.87
Forward P/E ?
5.84
Dividend yield ?
0.99%
Beta ?
1.74
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Aluminum
Stocklytics score
68
Value
87
Quality
46
Growth
70

Stocklytics score rationale: value 87, quality 46, growth 70.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
932500000011780000000135170000001049500000093720000001243700000012762000000107060000001218400000012831000000

Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three…

Fair value

AA fair value $90.23. Price $40.25. Price is 55% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 97% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 758.00M. Growth 0.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.7). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 263.91M. Net debt 1.05B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare AA

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-01-28—1.56—3.80B
2026-10-151.821.513.70B3.77B
2026-07-162.122.253.97B3.99B
2026-04-161.401.533.19B3.28B
2026-01-221.260.933.45B3.28B
2025-10-22-0.02-0.143.00B3.09B
2025-07-160.390.323.02B2.91B
2025-04-162.151.683.37B3.47B
2025-01-221.040.933.49B3.46B
2024-10-160.570.252.90B2.97B
2024-07-170.160.082.91B2.84B
2024-04-17-0.81-0.642.60B2.55B
2024-01-17-0.56-0.992.60B2.63B
2023-10-18-1.14-1.132.60B2.58B
2023-07-19-0.35-0.592.68B2.69B
2023-04-19-0.23-0.052.67B2.73B
2023-01-18-0.70-0.852.66B2.65B
2022-10-19-0.330.092.85B2.96B
2022-07-202.672.313.64B3.45B
2022-04-203.062.933.29B3.46B
2022-01-192.502.043.34B3.27B
2021-10-142.051.803.11B2.77B
2021-07-151.491.372.83B2.64B
2021-04-150.790.462.87B2.01B
2021-01-200.260.152.39B2.15B
2020-10-14-1.17-1.512.37B2.79B
2020-07-15-0.02-0.062.15B40.81B
2020-04-22-0.23-0.292.38B2.48B
2020-01-15-0.31-0.222.44B1.73B
2019-10-16-0.44-0.352.57B1.93B
2019-07-17-0.01-0.132.71B35.24B
2019-04-17-0.23-0.172.72B2.33B
2019-01-160.660.323.34B2.53B
2018-10-170.630.253.39B3.15B
2018-07-181.521.333.58B3.11B
2018-04-180.770.703.09B2.81B
2018-01-171.041.233.17B3.72B
2017-10-180.720.772.96B3.17B
2017-07-190.620.602.86B2.77B
2017-04-240.630.552.65B2.23B

Dividends

Yield 1.24%. Payout ratio 6.94%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 7% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 53 separate years. Yield is 1.2%, which is modest.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-10-27$0.102026-10-272026-11-13Quarterly
2026-08-11$0.102026-08-112026-08-27Quarterly
2026-05-19$0.102026-05-192026-06-05Quarterly
2026-03-10$0.102026-03-102026-03-26Quarterly
2025-11-04$0.102025-11-042025-11-21Quarterly
2025-08-12$0.102025-08-122025-08-28Quarterly
2025-05-20$0.102025-05-202025-06-06Quarterly
2025-03-04$0.102025-03-042025-03-20Quarterly
2024-10-29$0.102024-10-292024-11-15Quarterly
2024-08-12$0.102024-08-122024-08-29Quarterly
2024-05-20$0.102024-05-212024-06-07Quarterly
2024-03-04$0.102024-03-052024-03-21Quarterly
2023-10-30$0.102023-10-312023-11-17Quarterly
2023-08-07$0.102023-08-082023-08-24Quarterly
2023-05-15$0.102023-05-162023-06-02Quarterly
2023-03-06$0.102023-03-072023-03-23Quarterly
2022-10-31$0.102022-11-012022-11-18Quarterly
2022-08-08$0.102022-08-092022-08-25Quarterly
2022-05-16$0.102022-05-172022-06-03Quarterly
2022-03-07$0.102022-03-082022-03-24Quarterly
2021-10-28$0.102021-10-292021-11-19Quarterly
2016-11-02$0.092016-11-042016-11-25Quarterly
2016-08-03$0.072016-08-052016-08-25Quarterly
2016-05-04$0.072016-05-062016-05-25Quarterly
2016-02-03$0.072016-02-052016-02-25Quarterly
2015-11-04$0.072015-11-062015-11-25Quarterly
2015-08-05$0.072015-08-072015-08-25Quarterly
2015-05-07$0.072015-05-112015-05-25Quarterly
2015-02-04$0.072015-02-062015-02-25Quarterly
2014-11-05$0.072014-11-072014-11-25Quarterly
2014-08-06$0.072014-08-082014-08-25Quarterly
2014-05-08$0.072014-05-122014-05-27Quarterly
2014-02-05$0.072014-02-072014-02-25Quarterly
2013-11-06$0.072013-11-082013-11-25Quarterly
2013-08-07$0.072013-08-092013-08-26Quarterly
2013-05-09$0.072013-05-132013-05-27Quarterly
2013-02-06$0.072013-02-082013-02-25Quarterly
2012-10-31$0.07—2012-11-25Quarterly
2012-08-01$0.07—2012-08-27Quarterly
2012-05-10$0.07—2012-05-25Quarterly
2012-02-01$0.07—2012-02-25Quarterly
2011-11-02$0.07—2011-11-25Quarterly
2011-08-03$0.07—2011-08-25Quarterly
2011-05-12$0.07—2011-05-25Quarterly
2011-02-02$0.07—2011-02-25Quarterly
2010-11-03$0.07—2010-11-25Quarterly
2010-08-04$0.07—2010-08-25Quarterly
2010-05-05$0.07—2010-05-25Quarterly
2010-02-03$0.07—2010-02-25Quarterly
2009-11-04$0.07—2009-11-25Quarterly
2009-08-05$0.07—2009-08-25Quarterly
2009-05-06$0.07——Quarterly
2009-02-04$0.41——Quarterly
2008-11-05$0.41——Quarterly
2008-08-06$0.41——Quarterly
2008-04-30$0.41——Quarterly
2008-02-06$0.41——Quarterly
2007-10-31$0.41——Quarterly
2007-08-01$0.41——Quarterly
2007-05-02$0.41——Quarterly
2007-01-31$0.41——Quarterly
2006-12-21$0.36——Monthly
2006-11-01$0.36——Quarterly
2006-08-02$0.36——Quarterly
2006-05-03$0.36——Quarterly
2006-02-01$0.36——Quarterly
2005-11-02$0.36——Quarterly
2005-08-03$0.36——Quarterly
2005-05-04$0.36——Quarterly
2005-02-02$0.36——Quarterly
2004-11-03$0.36——Quarterly
2004-08-04$0.36——Quarterly
2004-05-06$0.36——Quarterly
2004-02-04$0.36——Quarterly
2003-11-05$0.36——Quarterly
2003-08-06$0.36——Quarterly
2003-04-30$0.36——Quarterly
2003-02-05$0.36——Quarterly
2002-11-06$0.36——Quarterly
2002-07-31$0.36——Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-09-15Hastings AndrewBuy2.64K——
2026-09-15Hastings AndrewSell1.20K$46.5255.82K
2026-09-15Hastings AndrewSell2.52K$46.52117.46K
2026-08-31Bacchi RenatoSell700$51.0235.71K
2026-08-27Jones Tammi ASell15.63K$50.60790.73K
2026-08-17Hastings AndrewSell6.00K$50.90305.41K
2026-07-22Reed Matthew TSell4.60K$46.82215.37K
2026-05-08Roberts Jackson PrinceBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Roberts Carol LBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08de Oliveira Marques RobertoBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08HUGHES JAMES ALTONBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Gorman Thomas JosephBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Galovich BrianBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Fiore PasqualeBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Field AlistairBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Citrino Mary AnneBuy2.53K——
2026-05-08Bevan John ABuy2.53K——
2026-05-06Galovich BrianOther0——
2026-04-15Olson Emily M.Buy8.76K——
2026-04-06Olson Emily M.Other0——
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ABuy3.88K——
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ABuy77$59.814.61K
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ASell41$59.812.45K
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ASell2.06K$59.81123.15K
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ABuy1.46K——
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ABuy29$59.811.73K
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ASell16$59.81957
2026-02-23Jones Tammi ASell762$59.8145.58K
2026-02-23Bacchi RenatoBuy4.86K——
2026-02-23Bacchi RenatoSell2.11K$59.81126.38K
2026-02-23Beerman Molly S.Buy6.99K——
2026-02-23Beerman Molly S.Sell3.04K$59.81181.82K
2026-02-23Oplinger William FBuy8.74K——
2026-02-23Oplinger William FSell3.80K$59.81227.34K
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy35$60.642.12K
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ASell19$60.641.15K
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ASell2.82K$60.64170.94K
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy8$60.64485
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ASell5$60.64303
2026-01-29Jones Tammi ASell683$60.6441.42K
2026-01-29Henry ReneeSell366$60.6422.19K
2026-01-29Hastings AndrewSell1.74K$60.64105.27K
2026-01-29Bacchi RenatoSell2.29K$60.64138.87K
2026-01-29Beerman Molly S.Sell3.94K$60.64238.92K
2026-01-29Oplinger William FSell14.84K$60.64899.90K
2026-01-28Reed Matthew TBuy3.47K——
2026-01-28Reed Matthew TBuy17.34K——
2026-01-28Jones Tammi ABuy1.87K——
2026-01-28Jones Tammi ABuy9.34K——
2026-01-28Jones Tammi ABuy530——
2026-01-28Jones Tammi ABuy1.77K——
2026-01-28Henry ReneeBuy1.77K——
2026-01-28Hastings AndrewBuy1.87K——
2026-01-28Hastings AndrewBuy9.34K——
2026-01-28Bacchi RenatoBuy9.34K——
2026-01-28Beerman Molly S.Buy17.34K——
2026-01-28Oplinger William FBuy66.66K——
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ABuy248$58.5514.52K
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ASell133$58.557.79K
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ASell7.63K$58.55446.74K
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ABuy80$58.554.68K
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ASell42$58.552.46K
2026-01-26Jones Tammi ASell2.30K$58.55134.90K
2026-01-26Henry ReneeSell1.30K$58.5576.29K
2026-01-26Hastings AndrewSell1.76K$58.55102.93K
2026-01-26Bacchi RenatoSell7.21K$58.55422.38K
2026-01-26Beerman Molly S.Sell10.21K$58.55597.50K
2026-01-26Oplinger William FSell21.08K$58.551.23M
2025-07-03Williams Steven WBuy1.02K$31.1531.84K
2025-05-12Zedillo ErnestoBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Roberts Jackson PrinceBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Roberts Carol LBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12de Oliveira Marques RobertoBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12HUGHES JAMES ALTONBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Gorman Thomas JosephBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Fiore PasqualeBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Field AlistairBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Citrino Mary AnneBuy5.69K——
2025-05-12Bevan John ABuy5.69K——
2025-04-03Williams Steven WBuy2.79K$27.3376.22K
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy15.95K——
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy5.14K——
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy175$35.136.15K
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ASell93$35.133.27K
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ASell2.72K$35.1395.69K
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy910——
2025-01-29Jones Tammi ABuy3.02K——
2025-01-29Oplinger William FBuy102.48K——
2025-01-29Oplinger William FBuy9.25K——
2025-01-29Oplinger William FSell4.00K$35.13140.38K
2025-01-29Reed Matthew TBuy27.33K——
2025-01-29Henry ReneeBuy910——
2025-01-29Henry ReneeBuy3.02K——
2025-01-29Hastings AndrewBuy15.95K——
2025-01-29Gagstetter NicolBuy5.30K——
2025-01-29Beerman Molly S.Buy27.33K——
2025-01-29Beerman Molly S.Buy1.80K——
2025-01-29Beerman Molly S.Sell497$35.1317.46K
2025-01-29Bacchi RenatoBuy15.95K——
2025-01-29Bacchi RenatoBuy5.14K——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 777. Ownership 78.54%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.29.32MNewNew1.53B
FMR LLC17.00MNewNew886.18M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC13.00MNewNew677.61M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC11.93MNewNew621.82M
EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC11.88MNewNew619.41M
STATE STREET CORP10.88MNewNew567.07M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP5.85MNewNew304.84M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC5.83MNewNew304.06M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC4.09MNewNew213.08M
MORGAN STANLEY3.59MNewNew187.11M
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC.3.59MNewNew186.97M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP3.19MNewNew166.19M
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD2.77MNewNew144.19M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC2.74MNewNew142.76M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP2.53MNewNew131.68M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP2.48MNewNew129.22M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC2.36MNewNew122.83M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC2.33MNewNew121.72M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP2.29MNewNew119.61M
INVESCO LTD.2.15MNewNew111.99M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC2.12MNewNew110.51M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC2.12MNewNew110.31M
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO2.02MNewNew108.55M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.2.08MNewNew108.51M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC2.08MNewNew108.51M

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Alcoa (AA) Stock Price & Analysis

AA$40.25+0.04 +0.10%

$10.62B

Market Cap

6.87

P/E

5.84

Forward P/E

68

Score

Price History