Boot Barn (BOOT) Stock Forecast & Price Target
BOOT$130.15+16.85 +14.87%
$3.94B
Market Cap
14.45
P/E
14.26
Forward P/E
64
Score
Boot Barn (BOOT) Stock Forecast & Price Target
BOOT price $130.15 +16.85 +14.87%
- Ticker
- BOOT
- Price
- $130.15
- Change
- +16.85 +14.87%
- Market cap ?
- $3.94B
- P/E ?
- 14.45
- Forward P/E ?
- 14.26
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 1.76
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Retail
- Stocklytics score
- 64
- Value
- 68
- Quality
- 55
- Growth
- 69
Stocklytics score rationale: value 68, quality 55, growth 69.
Financials
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 629816000 | 677949000 | 776854000 | 845575000 | 893491000 | 1488256000 | 1657615000 | 1667009000 | 1911104000 | 2253859000 |
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. engages in the operation of retail stores of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories. The firm's products include boots, jeans, accessories, hats, gifts and home products, and work wear. Its brands include Ariat, Wrangler, Lucchese Boots, Idyllwind, and Cinch. The company was founded by Kenneth Meany in 1978 and is headquartered in Irvine, CA.
Fair value
BOOT fair value $143.71. Price $130.15. Price is 9% below fair value.
Around fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 81% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 80.96M. Growth 16.28%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 30.28M. Net debt 632.44M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-27 | — | 3.21 | — | 802.97M |
| 2026-10-28 | 1.68 | 1.64 | 581.80M | 580.81M |
| 2026-07-29 | 2.29 | 1.69 | 593.51M | 583.15M |
| 2026-05-14 | 1.45 | 1.42 | 538.75M | 531.43M |
| 2026-02-04 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 705.64M | 704.92M |
| 2025-10-29 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 505.40M | 494.46M |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.74 | 1.55 | 504.07M | 495.19M |
| 2025-05-14 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 453.75M | 458.40M |
| 2025-01-30 | 2.43 | 2.38 | 608.17M | 607.00M |
| 2024-10-28 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 425.80M | 424.42M |
| 2024-08-07 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 423.39M | 415.17M |
| 2024-05-14 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 388.46M | 384.89M |
| 2024-01-31 | 1.81 | 1.79 | 520.40M | 520.48M |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 374.46M | 375.67M |
| 2023-08-02 | 1.13 | 0.84 | 383.69M | 362.70M |
| 2023-05-17 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 425.66M | 441.17M |
| 2023-01-25 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 514.55M | 514.11M |
| 2022-10-26 | 1.06 | 0.90 | 351.55M | 343.77M |
| 2022-07-27 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 365.86M | 366.89M |
| 2022-05-10 | 1.47 | 1.32 | 383.31M | 355.13M |
| 2022-01-27 | 2.27 | 2.22 | 485.90M | 483.10M |
| 2021-10-27 | 1.25 | 0.93 | 312.72M | 289.38M |
| 2021-08-04 | 1.35 | 0.88 | 306.33M | 306.33M |
| 2021-05-12 | 0.82 | 0.47 | 258.87M | 245.38M |
| 2021-01-25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 302.34M | 302.34M |
| 2020-10-28 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 184.51M | 152.22M |
| 2020-08-04 | -0.02 | -0.17 | 147.77M | 1.26B |
| 2020-05-20 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 188.63M | 221.43M |
| 2020-02-04 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 284.00M | 273.97M |
| 2019-10-30 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 187.18M | 143.99M |
| 2019-07-31 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 185.77M | 123.84M |
| 2019-05-15 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 192.75M | 162.64M |
| 2019-02-05 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 254.01M | 254.01M |
| 2018-10-25 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 168.11M | 138.68M |
| 2018-08-07 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 161.98M | 81.00M |
| 2018-05-15 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 170.77M | 113.87M |
| 2018-01-31 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 224.73M | 254.01M |
| 2017-11-02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 143.07M | 71.55M |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.03 | — | 139.38M | — |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 163.00M | 244.50M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 49/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. Dividends were paid in 4 separate years. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-05-18 | $0.13 | — | 2012-06-18 | Quarterly |
| 2012-02-17 | $0.13 | — | 2012-03-18 | Quarterly |
| 2011-11-18 | $0.13 | — | 2011-12-18 | Quarterly |
| 2011-08-18 | $0.13 | — | 2011-09-18 | Quarterly |
| 2011-05-18 | $0.13 | — | 2011-06-18 | Quarterly |
| 2011-02-17 | $0.13 | — | 2011-03-18 | Quarterly |
| 2010-11-18 | $0.13 | — | 2010-12-18 | Quarterly |
| 2010-08-18 | $0.13 | — | 2010-09-18 | Quarterly |
| 2010-05-19 | $0.13 | — | 2010-06-18 | Quarterly |
| 2010-02-18 | $1.00 | — | 2010-03-18 | Quarterly |
| 2009-11-18 | $0.13 | — | 2009-12-18 | Quarterly |
| 2009-08-19 | $0.13 | — | 2009-09-18 | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Kosoff Jonathon David | Sell | 230 | $160.31 | 36.87K |
| 2026-05-20 | Love Michael A | Buy | 13.54K | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | Love Michael A | Sell | 5.33K | $142.27 | 758.30K |
| 2026-05-20 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Buy | 13.54K | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 6.89K | $142.27 | 980.52K |
| 2026-05-20 | Watkins James M | Buy | 13.54K | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | Watkins James M | Sell | 6.89K | $142.27 | 980.52K |
| 2026-05-20 | Hazen John | Buy | 13.54K | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | Hazen John | Sell | 6.89K | $142.27 | 980.52K |
| 2026-05-19 | Love Michael A | Sell | 810 | $141.54 | 114.65K |
| 2026-05-19 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 1.05K | $141.54 | 148.33K |
| 2026-05-19 | Hazen John | Sell | 1.05K | $141.54 | 148.33K |
| 2026-05-18 | Love Michael A | Buy | 4.08K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Buy | 4.08K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Watkins James M | Buy | 4.61K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Hazen John | Buy | 16.83K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Kosoff Jonathon David | Buy | 3.01K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Weston Bradley Morgan | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Burt Gene Eddie | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Bruzzo Chris | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | MACDONALD ANNE | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Laube Lisa | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | Morris Brenda I | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | STARRETT PETER | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-16 | Love Michael A | Sell | 893 | $141.09 | 125.99K |
| 2026-05-16 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 1.23K | $141.09 | 173.96K |
| 2026-05-16 | Hazen John | Sell | 3.06K | $141.09 | 431.03K |
| 2026-05-16 | Kosoff Jonathon David | Sell | 268 | $141.09 | 37.81K |
| 2026-02-25 | Morris Brenda I | Sell | 1.00K | $197.74 | 197.74K |
| 2025-12-01 | Burt Gene Eddie | Sell | 1.20K | $191.41 | 229.69K |
| 2025-11-20 | Watkins James M | Sell | 2.00K | — | — |
| 2025-11-03 | Watkins James M | Sell | 176 | $191.17 | 33.65K |
| 2025-11-03 | STARRETT PETER | Sell | 6.50K | $190.00 | 1.23M |
| 2025-08-26 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 7.49K | $172.14 | 1.29M |
| 2025-08-21 | Morris Brenda I | Sell | 1.50K | $170.00 | 255.00K |
| 2025-05-23 | Love Michael A | Sell | 2.61K | $155.14 | 405.54K |
| 2025-05-23 | Love Michael A | Sell | 1.54K | $155.68 | 239.75K |
| 2025-05-22 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 2.44K | $160.67 | 391.71K |
| 2025-05-19 | Love Michael A | Sell | 502 | $160.94 | 80.79K |
| 2025-05-19 | Hazen John | Sell | 1.05K | $160.94 | 168.34K |
| 2025-05-19 | Watkins James M | Sell | 737 | $160.94 | 118.61K |
| 2025-05-19 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 737 | $160.94 | 118.61K |
| 2025-05-16 | Laube Lisa | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | MACDONALD ANNE | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Morris Brenda I | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Weston Bradley Morgan | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Burt Gene Eddie | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Bruzzo Chris | Buy | 926 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | STARRETT PETER | Buy | 5.74K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Kosoff Jonathon David | Buy | 2.23K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Love Michael A | Buy | 3.67K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Love Michael A | Sell | 400 | $156.71 | 62.68K |
| 2025-05-16 | Hazen John | Buy | 13.08K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Hazen John | Sell | 834 | $156.71 | 130.70K |
| 2025-05-16 | Watkins James M | Sell | 588 | $156.71 | 92.15K |
| 2025-05-16 | Watkins James M | Buy | 4.15K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 588 | $156.71 | 92.15K |
| 2025-05-16 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Buy | 3.67K | — | — |
| 2025-05-14 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 248 | $132.84 | 32.94K |
| 2025-05-14 | Hazen John | Sell | 353 | $132.84 | 46.89K |
| 2025-05-14 | Love Michael A | Sell | 112 | $132.84 | 14.88K |
| 2025-05-12 | Love Michael A | Sell | 328 | $133.30 | 43.72K |
| 2025-05-12 | Hazen John | Sell | 681 | $133.30 | 90.78K |
| 2025-05-12 | Grijalva Laurie Marie | Sell | 480 | $133.30 | 63.98K |
| 2025-01-27 | Kosoff Jonathon David | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Buy | 3.26K | $24.08 | 78.45K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 354 | $151.47 | 53.62K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Buy | 3.05K | $20.94 | 63.93K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 5.31K | $152.95 | 812.16K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 614 | $154.06 | 94.59K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 33 | $154.65 | 5.10K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 3.05K | $20.94 | 63.93K |
| 2025-01-02 | Hazen John | Sell | 3.26K | $24.08 | 78.45K |
| 2024-11-22 | Watkins James M | Buy | 1.09K | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | STARRETT PETER | Buy | 6.38K | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | Hazen John | Buy | 5.47K | — | — |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Buy | 6.11K | $20.94 | 127.86K |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 9.37K | $134.63 | 1.26M |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 33.62K | $135.43 | 4.55M |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 8.30K | $136.49 | 1.13M |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 1.10K | $137.22 | 150.94K |
| 2024-11-11 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 6.11K | $20.94 | 127.86K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Buy | 18.88K | $28.63 | 540.53K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Buy | 31.18K | $24.08 | 750.91K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 34.71K | $135.12 | 4.69M |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Buy | 3.63K | $20.94 | 76.08K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 18.99K | $135.79 | 2.58M |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 3.63K | $20.94 | 76.08K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 18.88K | $28.63 | 540.53K |
| 2024-11-08 | Conroy James Grant | Sell | 31.18K | $24.08 | 750.91K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Buy | 730 | $24.08 | 17.58K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Buy | 1.50K | $23.57 | 35.40K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Buy | 1.37K | $20.94 | 28.67K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Sell | 7.78K | $153.58 | 1.19M |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Sell | 1.58K | $154.23 | 243.53K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Sell | 1.50K | $23.57 | 35.40K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Sell | 1.37K | $20.94 | 28.67K |
| 2024-09-10 | Watkins James M | Sell | 730 | $24.08 | 17.58K |
| 2024-08-30 | MACDONALD ANNE | Sell | 1.70K | $135.20 | 229.57K |
| 2024-08-12 | Watkins James M | Sell | 269 | $136.97 | 36.84K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 472, holders +9 vs prior quarter. Ownership 115.65%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 5.12M | 371.96K | +7.84% | 840.63M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.71M | 54.16K | +3.26% | 281.70M |
| FMR LLC | 1.60M | 161.56K | +11.22% | 263.02M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.37M | 17.65K | +1.31% | 225.06M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 1.28M | 59.81K | +4.91% | 209.92M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | 841.14K | 498.18K | +145.26% | 138.17M |
| CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO | 797.62K | 80.05K | +11.15% | 131.02M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 774.24K | 43.80K | +6.00% | 127.21M |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 773.75K | 84.25K | +12.22% | 127.10M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 668.23K | 22.89K | +3.55% | 109.77M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 606.31K | 89.61K | +17.34% | 99.60M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 554.62K | -424.39K | -43.35% | 91.11M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 520.83K | -76.29K | -12.78% | 85.56M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 498.31K | -23.21K | -4.45% | 81.86M |
| PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC | 498.00K | -38.52K | -7.18% | 81.81M |
| THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS | 489.20K | 114.33K | +30.50% | 80.36M |
| STEPHENS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC | 485.10K | 53.12K | +12.30% | 79.69M |
| T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. | 484.73K | -6.03K | -1.23% | 79.63M |
| WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC | 414.09K | 200.82K | +94.16% | 68.02M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 413.86K | 286.18K | +224.14% | 67.98M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 380.35K | 23.90K | +6.70% | 62.48M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 379.72K | -58.59K | -13.37% | 62.38M |
| QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD | 377.92K | -51.83K | -12.06% | 62.08M |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | 371.75K | 4.84K | +1.32% | 61.07M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 371.75K | 371.75K | New | 61.07M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 29 analysts. Average price target $202.00, +55.2% versus the current price. Low $150.00. High $232.00.
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