Cenovus Energy (CVE) Stock Forecast & Price Target
CVE$31.82-0.47 -1.46%
$58.68B
Market Cap
12.74
P/E
5.50
Forward P/E
66
Score
Cenovus Energy (CVE) Stock Forecast & Price Target
CVE price $31.82 -0.47 -1.46%
- Ticker
- CVE
- Price
- $31.82
- Change
- -0.47 -1.46%
- Market cap ?
- $58.68B
- P/E ?
- 12.74
- Forward P/E ?
- 5.50
- Dividend yield ?
- 1.83%
- Beta ?
- 0.50
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Stocklytics score
- 66
- Value
- 62
- Quality
- 61
- Growth
- 75
Stocklytics score rationale: value 62, quality 61, growth 75.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11015000000 | 17314000000 | 21389000000 | 20542000000 | 13914000000 | 48811000000 | 71765000000 | 55474000000 | 57726000000 | 49655501039 |
Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated energy firm involved in the exploration, extraction, processing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its operations span Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company organizes its extensive activities across six core segments: Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Manufacturing, U.S. Manufacturing, and Retail. The Oil Sands…
Fair value
CVE fair value $92.94. Price $31.82. Price is 66% below fair value.
Below fair value, but more expensive than usual. A smaller discount than on 72% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 7.56B. Growth 7.93%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.84B. Net debt 14.26B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | — | 1.12 | — | 11.85B |
| 2026-07-29 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 14.59B | 11.87B |
| 2026-05-06 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 8.47B | 9.47B |
| 2026-02-19 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 9.42B | 8.64B |
| 2025-10-31 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 9.46B | 11.04B |
| 2025-07-31 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 9.04B | 11.39B |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 9.97B | 12.60B |
| 2025-02-20 | — | 0.32 | — | 11.08B |
| 2024-10-31 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 10.50B | 10.18B |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 10.89B | 10.21B |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 9.87B | 10.35B |
| 2024-02-15 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 9.89B | 10.11B |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 10.76B | 12.33B |
| 2023-07-27 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 9.71B | 9.71B |
| 2023-04-26 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 9.50B | 10.13B |
| 2023-02-16 | 0.29 | 0.48 | 11.13B | 10.13B |
| 2022-11-02 | 0.61 | 0.98 | 13.65B | 10.42B |
| 2022-07-28 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 11.27B | 12.56B |
| 2022-04-27 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 13.90B | 13.54B |
| 2022-02-08 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 11.40B | 11.27B |
| 2021-11-03 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 10.59B | 10.72B |
| 2021-07-29 | 0.11 | 0.28 | 8.96B | 8.58B |
| 2021-05-07 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 7.58B | 6.86B |
| 2021-02-09 | -0.35 | -0.06 | 2.80B | 2.33B |
| 2020-10-29 | -0.28 | -0.05 | 2.86B | 2.97B |
| 2020-07-23 | -0.25 | -0.44 | 1.62B | 1.79B |
| 2020-04-29 | -0.72 | -0.19 | 2.84B | 2.29B |
| 2020-02-12 | -0.10 | 0.08 | 3.63B | 4.09B |
| 2019-10-31 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 3.81B | 4.32B |
| 2019-07-25 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 4.51B | 4.46B |
| 2019-04-24 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 3.88B | 3.50B |
| 2019-02-13 | -1.03 | -0.16 | 3.57B | 3.48B |
| 2018-10-31 | -0.15 | 0.17 | 4.74B | 4.51B |
| 2018-07-26 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 4.55B | 4.37B |
| 2018-04-25 | -0.48 | -0.13 | 3.65B | 3.78B |
| 2018-02-15 | -0.35 | 0.10 | 4.10B | 3.93B |
| 2017-11-02 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 3.58B | 3.31B |
| 2017-07-27 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 3.13B | 3.59B |
| 2017-04-26 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 2.95B | 2.72B |
| 2017-02-16 | 0.29 | -0.06 | 2.73B | 2.73B |
Dividends
Yield 1.91%. Payout ratio 22.91%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 100/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 23% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 18 separate years. Yield is 1.9%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2026-06-15 | $0.16 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-13 | $0.15 | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.15 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.14 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.15 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.13 | 2025-03-14 | 2025-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.13 | 2024-12-13 | 2024-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.13 | 2024-09-13 | 2024-09-27 | Quarterly |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.13 | 2024-06-14 | 2024-06-28 | Quarterly |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.10 | 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-31 | Special |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.10 | 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-28 | Quarterly |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.10 | 2023-12-15 | 2023-12-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.10 | 2023-09-15 | 2023-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.11 | 2023-06-15 | 2023-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.08 | 2023-03-15 | 2023-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.08 | 2022-12-15 | 2022-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2022-11-17 | $0.09 | 2022-11-18 | 2022-12-02 | Special |
| 2022-09-14 | $0.08 | 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.08 | 2022-06-15 | 2022-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.03 | 2022-03-15 | 2022-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.03 | 2021-12-15 | 2021-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.01 | 2021-09-15 | 2021-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2021-06-14 | $0.01 | 2021-06-15 | 2021-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-12 | $0.01 | 2021-03-15 | 2021-03-31 | Annual |
| 2020-03-12 | $0.05 | 2020-03-13 | 2020-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2019-12-12 | $0.05 | 2019-12-13 | 2019-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2019-09-12 | $0.04 | 2019-09-13 | 2019-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2019-06-13 | $0.04 | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-28 | Quarterly |
| 2019-03-14 | $0.05 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-03-29 | Quarterly |
| 2018-12-13 | $0.05 | 2018-12-14 | 2018-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2018-09-13 | $0.04 | 2018-09-14 | 2018-09-28 | Quarterly |
| 2018-06-14 | $0.04 | 2018-06-15 | 2018-06-29 | Quarterly |
| 2018-03-14 | $0.04 | 2018-03-15 | 2018-03-29 | Quarterly |
| 2017-12-14 | $0.04 | 2017-12-15 | 2017-12-29 | Quarterly |
| 2017-09-14 | $0.04 | 2017-09-15 | 2017-09-29 | Quarterly |
| 2017-06-13 | $0.04 | 2017-06-15 | 2017-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2017-03-13 | $0.04 | 2017-03-15 | 2017-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2016-12-13 | $0.04 | 2016-12-15 | 2016-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2016-09-13 | $0.04 | 2016-09-15 | 2016-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2016-06-13 | $0.04 | 2016-06-15 | 2016-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2016-03-11 | $0.04 | 2016-03-15 | 2016-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2015-12-11 | $0.12 | 2015-12-15 | 2015-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2015-09-11 | $0.12 | 2015-09-15 | 2015-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2015-06-11 | $0.22 | 2015-06-15 | 2015-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2015-03-11 | $0.21 | 2015-03-13 | 2015-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2014-12-11 | $0.23 | 2014-12-15 | 2014-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2014-09-11 | $0.24 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2014-06-11 | $0.24 | 2014-06-13 | 2014-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2014-03-12 | $0.24 | 2014-03-14 | 2014-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2013-12-11 | $0.23 | 2013-12-13 | 2013-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2013-09-11 | $0.23 | 2013-09-13 | 2013-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2013-06-12 | $0.24 | 2013-06-14 | 2013-06-28 | Quarterly |
| 2013-03-13 | $0.24 | 2013-03-15 | 2013-03-28 | Quarterly |
| 2012-12-12 | $0.22 | 2012-12-14 | 2012-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2012-09-12 | $0.23 | 2012-09-14 | 2012-09-28 | Quarterly |
| 2012-06-13 | $0.21 | 2012-06-15 | 2012-06-29 | Quarterly |
| 2012-03-13 | $0.22 | 2012-03-15 | 2012-03-30 | Quarterly |
| 2011-12-13 | $0.20 | 2011-12-15 | 2011-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2011-09-13 | $0.20 | 2011-09-15 | 2011-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2011-06-13 | $0.21 | 2011-06-15 | 2011-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2011-03-11 | $0.21 | 2011-03-15 | 2011-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2010-12-13 | $0.20 | 2010-12-15 | 2010-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2010-09-13 | $0.19 | 2010-09-15 | 2010-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2010-06-11 | $0.19 | 2010-06-15 | 2010-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2010-03-11 | $0.20 | 2010-03-15 | 2010-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2009-12-09 | $23.55 | — | — | Weekly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 534, holders +33 vs prior quarter. Ownership 49.71%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 73.84M | -2.09M | -2.75% | 1.83B |
| CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS | 59.77M | -45.48M | -43.21% | 1.48B |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 46.87M | -792.98K | -1.66% | 1.16B |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 43.04M | 40.54M | +1621.71% | 1.07B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 38.40M | -16.84K | -0.04% | 952.75M |
| FIL LTD | 37.38M | -5.38M | -12.58% | 927.48M |
| BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ | 32.92M | 9.52M | +40.70% | 816.05M |
| MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP | 21.25M | -4.23M | -16.59% | 747.80M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 16.12M | -1.27M | -7.29% | 650.52M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 24.94M | 1.03M | +4.30% | 618.66M |
| FMR LLC | 23.95M | -5.33M | -18.21% | 594.19M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 21.42M | 4.83M | +29.15% | 531.41M |
| BOSTON PARTNERS | 17.72M | 848.42K | +5.03% | 442.98M |
| MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE | 17.12M | -612.66K | -3.46% | 423.89M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 17.04M | -976.54K | -5.42% | 422.74M |
| GQG PARTNERS LLC | 16.59M | -10.18M | -38.03% | 411.55M |
| CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 15.26M | -1.37M | -8.21% | 379.24M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 14.90M | -7.87M | -34.56% | 369.70M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 14.40M | 665.37K | +4.85% | 361.85M |
| CONNOR, CLARK & LUNN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LTD. | 14.28M | 5.45M | +61.74% | 355.75M |
| TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 14.18M | -3.00M | -17.45% | 351.74M |
| SMEAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. | 13.37M | -1.50M | -10.07% | 331.45M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 11.82M | -73.17K | -0.62% | 293.33M |
| CIBC WORLD MARKET INC. | 11.35M | -993.80K | -8.05% | 281.36M |
| CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | 10.56M | 8.52M | +417.42% | 261.81M |
Forecast
Consensus Hold from 27 analysts. Average price target $36.00, +13.1% versus the current price. Low $36.00. High $36.00.
Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn