Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Price & Analysis
GENI$6.42+0.07 +1.02%
$1.72B
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score
Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Price & Analysis
GENI price $6.42 +0.07 +1.02%
- Ticker
- GENI
- Price
- $6.42
- Change
- +0.07 +1.02%
- Market cap ?
- $1.72B
- Beta ?
- 1.91
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
Fair value
GENI fair value $7.34. Price $6.42. Price is 13% below fair value.
Above fair value, around its usual premium.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 53.63M. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.9). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 267.63M. Net debt -250.06M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | — | 0.02 | — | 261.13M |
| 2026-08-06 | -0.28 | -0.07 | 195.50M | 184.43M |
| 2026-05-07 | -0.21 | -0.09 | 187.95M | 170.60M |
| 2026-03-04 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 240.50M | 239.98M |
| 2025-11-04 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 166.28M | 156.78M |
| 2025-08-06 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 118.72M | 118.48M |
| 2025-05-06 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 143.99M | 143.35M |
| 2025-03-04 | -0.12 | 0.04 | 175.53M | 175.56M |
| 2024-11-12 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 120.20M | 118.94M |
| 2024-08-06 | -0.09 | -0.03 | 95.45M | 94.26M |
| 2024-05-08 | -0.11 | -0.10 | 119.72M | 116.53M |
| 2024-03-06 | -0.12 | -0.07 | 127.17M | 126.13M |
| 2023-11-13 | -0.06 | -0.04 | 101.73M | 100.38M |
| 2023-08-07 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 86.85M | 80.57M |
| 2023-05-09 | -0.12 | -0.09 | 97.23M | 92.28M |
| 2023-03-10 | -0.18 | -0.11 | 105.34M | 104.36M |
| 2022-11-10 | -0.04 | -0.07 | 78.65M | 77.18M |
| 2022-08-16 | -0.02 | -0.09 | 71.12M | 64.63M |
| 2022-05-12 | -0.21 | -0.16 | 85.92M | 77.88M |
| 2022-03-11 | -0.28 | -0.23 | 84.01M | 80.72M |
| 2021-11-23 | -0.37 | -0.12 | 69.14M | 81.57M |
| 2021-09-08 | -0.69 | -0.91 | 55.85M | 53.93M |
| 2021-05-20 | -1.68 | -0.12 | 53.74M | 44.60M |
| 2021-03-26 | -0.08 | — | 47.02M | — |
| 2020-11-16 | -0.01 | — | 40.56M | — |
| 2020-08-17 | -0.04 | — | 26.80M | — |
| 2020-01-01 | -0.05 | — | 30.58M | — |
| 2018-12-31 | -0.05 | — | 30.58M | — |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Castellani Bryan | Sell | 151.77K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Castellani Bryan | Buy | 151.77K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Castellani Bryan | Sell | 53.30K | $5.68 | 302.73K |
| 2026-09-17 | Russell Thomas | Sell | 50.00K | $6.51 | 325.56K |
| 2026-09-17 | Locke Mark | Sell | 50.00K | $6.54 | 327.05K |
| 2026-09-16 | Locke Mark | Sell | 272.55K | $6.56 | 1.79M |
| 2026-09-15 | Locke Mark | Sell | 477.45K | $6.58 | 3.14M |
| 2026-09-15 | Locke Mark | Buy | 1 | $5.00 | 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | Locke Mark | Sell | 1 | $10.20 | 10 |
| 2026-03-20 | Davison Jack | Buy | 75.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Davison Jack | Sell | 35.25K | $4.53 | 159.68K |
| 2026-03-20 | Davison Jack | Sell | 75.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Locke Mark | Buy | 120.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Locke Mark | Sell | 7.80K | $4.53 | 35.33K |
| 2026-03-20 | Locke Mark | Sell | 120.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Russell Thomas | Buy | 35.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Russell Thomas | Sell | 16.45K | $4.53 | 74.52K |
| 2026-03-20 | Russell Thomas | Sell | 35.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Bradley Kimberly Ann | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Bradley Kimberly Ann | Other | 18.63K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Castellani Bryan | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Castellani Bryan | Other | 153.85K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Davison Jack | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Davison Jack | Other | 113.25K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Locke Mark | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Locke Mark | Other | 508.55K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kay Kenneth J | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kay Kenneth J | Other | 28.70K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Burns Daniel Paul | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Burns Daniel Paul | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Burns Daniel Paul | Other | 18.63K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | BACH ROBERT J | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | BACH ROBERT J | Other | 18.63K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Nooriala Claire | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Nooriala Claire | Other | 18.63K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Russell Thomas | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Russell Thomas | Other | 85.79K | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 295, holders +3 vs prior quarter. Ownership 89.27%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 19.77M | 5.14M | +35.11% | 119.84M |
| SENVEST MANAGEMENT, LLC | 15.88M | 2.23M | +16.32% | 96.24M |
| GLENVIEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 13.50M | 4.93M | +57.64% | 81.78M |
| HOOD RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 12.93M | 5.69M | +78.50% | 78.35M |
| STEPHENS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC | 10.69M | 3.09M | +40.71% | 64.79M |
| SHAPIRO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 9.89M | -725.01K | -6.83% | 59.92M |
| FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC | 9.43M | 4.46M | +89.88% | 57.16M |
| DISCOVERY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC / CT | 7.23M | -223.10K | -2.99% | 43.82M |
| PORTOLAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 7.03M | 4.23M | +151.73% | 42.58M |
| GRANAHAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 7.02M | 1.64M | +30.47% | 42.57M |
| VOSS CAPITAL, LP | 6.85M | -6.22M | -47.61% | 41.51M |
| NEEDHAM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC | 4.92M | 925.00K | +23.12% | 29.85M |
| SAMJO MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.91M | 1.16M | +30.95% | 29.77M |
| LONGAEVA PARTNERS L.P. | 4.74M | 896.65K | +23.34% | 28.71M |
| GLOBAL ALPHA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD. | 4.44M | -4.63K | -0.10% | 28.17M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 4.58M | 127.60K | +2.86% | 27.78M |
| WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.37M | 1.46M | +49.94% | 27.73M |
| CYPRESS POINT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LP | 4.15M | 195.54K | +4.94% | 25.16M |
| IFC ADVISORS LLC | 4.05M | 469.29K | +13.09% | 24.56M |
| POINT72 ASSET MANAGEMENT, L.P. | 3.98M | 488.70K | +14.00% | 24.12M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 3.83M | 312.60K | +8.89% | 23.20M |
| ORBIS ALLAN GRAY LTD | 3.77M | 3.77M | New | 22.83M |
| SUMITOMO MITSUI TRUST GROUP, INC. | 3.53M | -382.92K | -9.79% | 21.37M |
| AMOVA ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS, INC. | 3.51M | -394.98K | -10.10% | 21.27M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 3.25M | 658.13K | +25.37% | 19.71M |
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