Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HOG price $29.66 +0.14 +0.47%

Ticker
HOG
Price
$29.66
Change
+0.14 +0.47%
Market cap ?
$3.09B
P/E ?
17.73
Forward P/E ?
42.17
Dividend yield ?
2.52%
Beta ?
1.32
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
Stocklytics score
40
Value
50
Quality
42
Growth
27

Stocklytics score rationale: value 50, quality 42, growth 27.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
5996458000564722400057168750005361789000405437700053363080005755130000583647800051868020004473175000

Harley-Davidson, Inc., publicly traded under the symbol HOG, is fundamentally a manufacturer and seller of motorcycles. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings, and Financial Services. The Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings segment focuses on the design, production, and worldwide distribution of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, encompassing…

Fair value

HOG fair value $54.53. Price $29.66. Price is 46% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 84% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 610.00M. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.54% (beta 1.3). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 104.07M. Net debt -38.05M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare HOG

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-02-09—-0.76—591.52M
2026-10-290.400.47964.02M1.07B
2026-07-230.750.651.10B1.17B
2026-05-050.220.341.06B1.01B
2026-02-10-2.44-0.92379.19M484.56M
2025-11-043.101.381.07B509.26M
2025-07-300.880.991.31B1.05B
2025-05-011.070.801.33B1.18B
2025-02-05-0.93-0.65687.61M1.37B
2024-10-240.910.791.15B463.13M
2024-07-251.631.401.62B1.28B
2024-04-251.721.511.73B1.34B
2024-02-080.180.041.05B882.32M
2023-10-261.381.361.55B1.36B
2023-07-271.221.251.45B1.29B
2023-04-272.041.391.79B1.36B
2023-02-020.280.061.14B917.81M
2022-10-261.781.401.65B1.36B
2022-07-281.461.071.47B1.22B
2022-04-271.451.451.50B1.31B
2022-02-080.14-0.381.02B668.58M
2021-10-271.050.701.37B1.15B
2021-07-211.331.171.53B1.15B
2021-04-191.680.881.42B1.08B
2021-02-02-0.630.10725.22M771.10M
2020-10-270.780.211.17B1.80B
2020-07-28-0.600.06865.23M57.68M
2020-04-280.450.441.30B1.27B
2020-01-280.090.091.07B1.07B
2019-10-220.550.521.27B1.20B
2019-07-231.231.201.63B1.59B
2019-04-230.800.651.38B1.12B
2019-01-290.110.281.15B1.89B
2018-10-230.780.531.32B840.15M
2018-07-241.451.351.71B1.52B
2018-04-241.030.931.54B1.16B
2018-01-300.540.461.23B1.20B
2017-10-170.400.391.15B1.12B
2017-07-181.481.381.77B1.65B
2017-04-181.051.021.50B1.46B

Dividends

Yield 2.50%. Payout ratio 25.50%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 100/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 26% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 35 separate years. Yield is 2.5%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-09-15$0.192026-09-152026-09-29Quarterly
2026-06-08$0.192026-06-082026-06-25Quarterly
2026-03-02$0.192026-03-022026-03-17Quarterly
2025-12-09$0.182025-12-092025-12-22Quarterly
2025-09-10$0.182025-09-102025-09-24Quarterly
2025-06-02$0.182025-06-022025-06-18Quarterly
2025-02-28$0.182025-02-282025-03-14Quarterly
2024-12-10$0.172024-12-102024-12-23Quarterly
2024-09-16$0.172024-09-162024-09-27Quarterly
2024-06-05$0.172024-06-052024-06-21Quarterly
2024-03-01$0.172024-03-042024-03-20Quarterly
2023-12-08$0.172023-12-112023-12-27Quarterly
2023-09-11$0.172023-09-122023-09-27Quarterly
2023-06-02$0.172023-06-052023-06-21Quarterly
2023-03-02$0.172023-03-032023-03-20Quarterly
2022-12-08$0.162022-12-092022-12-23Quarterly
2022-09-09$0.162022-09-122022-09-22Quarterly
2022-06-01$0.162022-06-022022-06-17Quarterly
2022-02-25$0.162022-02-282022-03-18Quarterly
2021-12-07$0.152021-12-082021-12-23Quarterly
2021-09-09$0.152021-09-102021-09-24Quarterly
2021-06-09$0.152021-06-102021-06-25Quarterly
2021-03-01$0.152021-03-022021-03-19Quarterly
2020-12-03$0.022020-12-042020-12-18Quarterly
2020-09-09$0.022020-09-102020-09-25Quarterly
2020-05-21$0.022020-05-222020-06-12Quarterly
2020-03-04$0.382020-03-052020-03-20Quarterly
2019-12-13$0.382019-12-162019-12-27Quarterly
2019-09-16$0.382019-09-172019-09-27Quarterly
2019-05-29$0.382019-05-302019-06-14Quarterly
2019-03-13$0.382019-03-142019-03-29Quarterly
2018-12-13$0.372018-12-142018-12-28Quarterly
2018-09-17$0.372018-09-182018-09-28Quarterly
2018-05-30$0.372018-05-312018-06-15Quarterly
2018-02-13$0.372018-02-142018-03-02Quarterly
2017-12-14$0.362017-12-152017-12-29Quarterly
2017-09-11$0.362017-09-122017-09-22Quarterly
2017-05-23$0.362017-05-252017-06-09Quarterly
2017-02-13$0.362017-02-152017-03-03Quarterly
2016-12-14$0.352016-12-162016-12-30Quarterly
2016-09-09$0.352016-09-132016-09-23Quarterly
2016-05-24$0.352016-05-262016-06-10Quarterly
2016-02-12$0.352016-02-172016-03-04Quarterly
2015-12-09$0.312015-12-112015-12-28Quarterly
2015-09-11$0.312015-09-152015-09-25Quarterly
2015-05-26$0.312015-05-282015-06-12Quarterly
2015-02-13$0.312015-02-182015-03-06Quarterly
2014-12-12$0.282014-12-162014-12-26Quarterly
2014-09-12$0.282014-09-162014-09-26Quarterly
2014-05-27$0.282014-05-292014-06-13Quarterly
2014-02-14$0.282014-02-192014-03-07Quarterly
2013-12-13$0.212013-12-172013-12-27Quarterly
2013-09-13$0.212013-09-172013-09-27Quarterly
2013-05-28$0.212013-05-302013-06-14Quarterly
2013-02-14$0.212013-02-192013-03-01Quarterly
2012-12-14$0.152012-12-182012-12-28Quarterly
2012-09-26$0.152012-09-282012-10-12Quarterly
2012-05-29$0.152012-05-312012-06-15Quarterly
2012-02-16$0.152012-02-212012-03-02Quarterly
2011-12-16$0.122011-12-202011-12-30Quarterly
2011-09-28$0.122011-09-302011-10-14Quarterly
2011-05-31$0.122011-06-022011-06-17Quarterly
2011-02-17$0.102011-02-222011-03-04Quarterly
2010-12-17$0.102010-12-212010-12-31Quarterly
2010-09-29$0.102010-10-012010-10-15Quarterly
2010-06-01$0.102010-06-032010-06-18Quarterly
2010-02-19$0.102010-02-232010-03-05Quarterly
2009-12-17$0.102009-12-212009-12-31Quarterly
2009-09-24$0.102009-09-282009-10-08Quarterly
2009-06-02$0.102009-06-042009-06-19Quarterly
2009-03-03$0.102009-03-052009-03-19Quarterly
2008-12-17$0.332008-12-192008-12-30Quarterly
2008-09-29$0.332008-10-012008-10-10Quarterly
2008-06-03$0.332008-06-052008-06-20Quarterly
2008-03-03$0.302008-03-052008-03-18Quarterly
2007-12-19$0.302007-12-212007-12-28Quarterly
2007-09-27$0.302007-10-012007-10-11Quarterly
2007-06-07$0.252007-06-112007-06-19Quarterly
2007-03-01$0.212007-03-052007-03-20Quarterly
2006-12-20$0.212006-12-222006-12-28Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-01Root Jonathan RSell1.56K$24.4338.09K
2026-09-24NOVA DANIEL JBuy5.17K——
2026-09-24NOVA DANIEL JSell5.17K——
2026-09-01Root Jonathan RSell1.55K$27.4642.67K
2026-08-11Littleton GayleBuy7.50K$26.38197.85K
2026-08-10Starrs ArtieBuy10.00K$25.89258.94K
2026-08-03Root Jonathan RSell1.55K$24.8838.66K
2026-07-31NOVA DANIEL JBuy40.00K$24.57982.70K
2026-07-24Littleton GayleBuy39.23K——
2026-07-01Root Jonathan RSell1.55K$24.4437.98K
2026-06-29Littleton GayleOther0——
2026-05-21Sylvester MaryroseBuy6.25K——
2026-05-21Reintjes Matthew JBuy6.25K——
2026-05-21Reintjes Matthew JBuy2.48K——
2026-05-21NOVA DANIEL JBuy4.74K——
2026-05-21NOVA DANIEL JBuy6.52K——
2026-05-21Masood RafehBuy11.21K——
2026-05-21Golston Allan C.Buy6.25K——
2026-05-21Flees Lori AnnBuy8.62K——
2026-05-21Alstead TroyBuy6.25K——
2026-05-19Root Jonathan RSell1.55K$24.2137.62K
2026-05-14Sylvester MaryroseBuy6.01K——
2026-05-14Sylvester MaryroseSell6.01K——
2026-05-14Masood RafehBuy6.01K——
2026-05-14Masood RafehSell6.01K——
2026-05-14Golston Allan C.Buy3.01K——
2026-05-14Golston Allan C.Sell3.01K——
2026-05-14Flees Lori AnnBuy6.01K——
2026-05-14Flees Lori AnnSell6.01K——
2026-05-14FARLEY JR JAMES DBuy6.01K——
2026-05-14FARLEY JR JAMES DSell6.01K——
2026-05-14Alstead TroyBuy6.01K——
2026-05-14Alstead TroySell6.01K——
2026-05-11Krause Paul JSell1.56K$26.0040.66K
2026-04-06Beck Bryan AndrewBuy7.14K——
2026-03-12Do CharlesSell4.24K$18.0976.74K
2026-03-09Flees Lori AnnBuy4.00K$18.8975.55K
2026-03-09Starrs ArtieBuy15.00K$19.10286.50K
2026-02-27Masood RafehBuy2.77K$18.0049.95K
2026-02-25FARLEY JR JAMES DSell6.45K$18.71120.78K
2026-02-17Termaat ToriBuy2.54K——
2026-02-17Termaat ToriSell1.24K$20.4225.30K
2026-02-17Root Jonathan RBuy2.80K——
2026-02-17Root Jonathan RSell821$20.4216.76K
2026-02-17Krause Paul JBuy3.76K——
2026-02-17Krause Paul JSell1.77K$20.4236.06K
2026-02-17Koval GlenBuy2.29K——
2026-02-17Koval GlenSell742$20.4215.15K
2026-02-13Ryan Matthew ABuy19.59K——
2026-02-13Termaat ToriBuy12.34K——
2026-02-13Termaat ToriBuy2.54K——
2026-02-13Termaat ToriSell1.24K$20.4225.30K
2026-02-13Starrs ArtieBuy159.16K——
2026-02-13Root Jonathan RBuy48.97K——
2026-02-13Root Jonathan RBuy2.80K——
2026-02-13Root Jonathan RSell821$20.4216.76K
2026-02-13Niketh BryanBuy36.73K——
2026-02-13Krause Paul JBuy24.49K——
2026-02-13Krause Paul JBuy3.76K——
2026-02-13Krause Paul JSell1.77K$20.4236.06K
2026-02-13Koval GlenBuy15.43K——
2026-02-13Koval GlenBuy2.29K——
2026-02-13Koval GlenSell742$20.4215.15K
2026-02-13Do CharlesBuy20.47K——
2026-02-13Beck Bryan AndrewBuy9.55K——
2026-02-09Termaat ToriBuy1.07K——
2026-02-09Termaat ToriSell562$20.4911.52K
2026-02-09Termaat ToriSell1.07K——
2026-02-09Root Jonathan RBuy1.19K——
2026-02-09Root Jonathan RSell348$20.497.13K
2026-02-09Root Jonathan RSell1.19K——
2026-02-09Krause Paul JBuy1.59K——
2026-02-09Krause Paul JSell748$20.4915.33K
2026-02-09Krause Paul JSell1.59K——
2026-02-09Koval GlenBuy968——
2026-02-09Koval GlenSell362$20.497.42K
2026-02-09Koval GlenSell968——
2026-02-09Beck Bryan AndrewBuy398——
2026-02-09Beck Bryan AndrewSell135$20.492.77K
2026-02-09Beck Bryan AndrewSell398——
2026-02-06Termaat ToriBuy3.14K——
2026-02-06Termaat ToriSell1.64K$20.0132.90K
2026-02-06Termaat ToriSell3.14K——
2026-02-06Root Jonathan RBuy9.98K——
2026-02-06Root Jonathan RSell3.00K$20.0160.03K
2026-02-06Root Jonathan RSell9.98K——
2026-02-06Krause Paul JBuy4.80K——
2026-02-06Krause Paul JSell2.44K$20.0148.72K
2026-02-06Krause Paul JSell4.80K——
2026-02-06Koval GlenBuy3.93K——
2026-02-06Koval GlenSell1.47K$20.0129.33K
2026-02-06Koval GlenSell3.93K——
2026-02-06Do CharlesSell5.21K——
2026-02-06Do CharlesBuy5.21K——
2026-02-06Do CharlesSell1.94K$20.0138.76K
2026-02-06Beck Bryan AndrewSell1.10K——
2026-02-06Beck Bryan AndrewBuy1.10K——
2026-02-06Beck Bryan AndrewSell372$20.017.44K
2026-02-06Beck Bryan AndrewOther3.29K——
2026-02-05Termaat ToriBuy1.51K——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 474, holders +48 vs prior quarter. Ownership 102.49%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.10.20M-409.78K-3.86%249.39M
DONALD SMITH & CO., INC.9.28M-737.80K-7.37%226.97M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP5.97M123.38K+2.11%145.98M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC5.63M341.50K+6.46%137.59M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC5.35M594.79K+12.51%130.89M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT5.08M-92.98K-1.80%124.28M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC4.75M-313.85K-6.20%116.11M
FIFTHDELTA LTD4.37M2.24M+105.24%106.94M
STATE STREET CORP4.24M440.90K+11.62%103.62M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC3.00M710.29K+31.08%73.29M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.62M1.02M+64.14%63.83M
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC.2.27M2.16M+1841.66%55.61M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC2.11M2.00M+1953.58%51.54M
GATE CITY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC1.97M-296.45K-13.06%48.26M
UBS GROUP AG1.95M-909.18K-31.84%47.60M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP1.86M-1.18M-38.91%45.46M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/1.84M107.00K+6.17%45.06M
MORGAN STANLEY1.84M-53.84K-2.85%44.93M
THIRD AVENUE MANAGEMENT LLC1.48M18.21K+1.24%36.22M
INVESCO LTD.1.38M705.99K+104.73%33.76M
AEGIS FINANCIAL CORP1.37M00.00%33.49M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP1.37M341.86K+33.38%33.41M
GOTHAM ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC1.33M153.92K+13.04%32.64M
PINE VALLEY INVESTMENTS LTD LIABILITY CO1.33M956.52K+258.03%32.46M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.1.25M1.25MNew30.63M

Forecast

Consensus Hold from 16 analysts. Average price target $28.83, -2.8% versus the current price. Low $19.00. High $33.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $28.83 for Harley-Davidson (HOG), 2.8% below the current price of $29.66. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 Hold, and 2 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Hold.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

HOG price target

12-month price target
Low$19.00
Average$28.83
High$33.00

The average is 2.8% below the current price of $29.66.

Is Harley-Davidson a buy or sell?

Of 16 analysts, 6 rate Harley-Davidson Buy or Strong Buy, 8 Hold, and 2 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Hold. That split is not a recommendation.

Harley-Davidson earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $0.70, revenue $3.86 billion. 2027, EPS $1.93, revenue $4.03 billion.

HOG score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for HOG is 40 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

HOG forecast FAQs

What is the HOG price target?

$28.83 average, with a published range of $19.00 to $33.00.

Is Harley-Davidson a buy or sell?

The consensus is Hold from 16 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the Harley-Davidson stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $0.70. The average revenue estimate is $3.86 billion.

What will HOG be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is Harley-Davidson's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HOG$29.66+0.14 +0.47%

$3.09B

Market Cap

17.73

P/E

42.17

Forward P/E

40

Score

Price History