Autodesk (ADSK) Fair Value & DCF

ADSK$255.71-4.40 -1.69%
Software - ApplicationLarge CapGrowth StockHigh Quality
Compare
Market cap$53.44BEnterprise value$56.06BRevenue (TTM)$7.79BMarket positionTop 25%

Score

66
Bullish
Value
50
Quality
72
Growth
76

ADSK fair value $355.08. Price $255.71. Price is 28% below fair value.

Worked example

Cash-flow value. Starting free cash flow is $13.55 a share. Year 1 is the first earnings forecast, so it has no growth rate of its own. The forecast then reaches 13.51%, and that pace fades in a straight line to 3% terminal growth by year 10. The discount rate is 11.30% (beta 1.27). It is beta-adjusted and capped at 12%. The cash-flow value is $304.15 a share.

Earnings value. Next-twelve-months earnings per share of $13.53 times 30.00 is $406.02. The peer group is Software - Application, 25 companies worth at least $10 billion. Peer median 33.4. Own 10-year median 60.2. The multiple used is the average of the two, kept between 8 and 30, which is 30.00.

Fair value is the average of the two, $355.08. The price is $255.71, which is 28.0% below fair value.

Autodesk (ADSK) Fair Value & DCF

ADSK price $255.71 -4.40 -1.69%

Ticker
ADSK
Price
$255.71
Change
-4.40 -1.69%
Market cap
$53.44B
P/E
33.11
Forward P/E
19.22
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.27
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Stocklytics score
66
Value
50
Quality
72
Growth
76

Stocklytics score rationale: value 50, quality 72, growth 76.

AI Score 75. Autodesk, Inc. has a strong gross profit margin of approximately 91.2% and a net profit margin of about 21.1%, indicating solid profitability

Fair value

ADSK fair value $355.08. Price $255.71. Price is 28% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on more than 99% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price.

Fair value blends a 10-year DCF and an earnings multiple: the average of the DCF value and an earnings value from next-twelve-months EPS times 30.0, a blend of the Software - Application median (33.4) and the stock's own 10-year median (60.2). How we calculate it →

Compare ADSK

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-24—3.07—2.13B
2026-08-273.303.122.05B2.01B
2026-05-282.992.841.93B1.89B
2026-02-262.852.651.96B1.91B
2025-11-252.672.501.85B1.81B
2025-08-282.622.451.76B1.72B
2025-05-222.292.151.63B1.61B
2025-02-272.292.141.64B1.63B
2024-11-272.172.121.57B1.56B
2024-08-292.152.001.50B1.48B
2024-06-111.871.771.42B1.40B
2024-02-292.091.951.47B1.43B
2023-11-212.071.991.41B1.39B
2023-08-231.911.731.34B1.33B
2023-05-251.551.551.27B1.27B
2023-02-231.861.811.32B1.31B
2022-11-221.701.701.28B1.28B
2022-08-241.651.571.24B1.22B
2022-05-261.431.341.17B1.15B
2022-02-241.501.441.21B1.19B
2021-11-231.331.261.13B1.20B
2021-08-251.211.131.06B1.12B
2021-05-271.030.94989.00M964.77M
2021-02-251.181.071.04B932.37M
2020-11-241.040.96952.40M873.03M
2020-08-250.980.90913.10M838.56M
2020-05-270.850.80885.70M833.60M
2020-02-270.920.89899.30M869.98M
2019-11-260.780.72842.70M777.88M
2019-08-270.650.61796.80M747.77M
2019-05-230.450.47735.50M768.19M
2019-02-280.460.42737.30M673.19M
2018-11-200.290.27660.90M615.32M
2018-08-230.190.15611.70M515.12M
2018-05-240.060.03559.90M279.95M
2018-03-06-0.09-0.11553.80M676.87M
2017-11-28-0.12-0.13515.30M558.24M
2017-08-24-0.11-0.15501.80M684.27M
2017-05-18-0.16-0.24485.70M728.55M
2017-03-02-0.28-0.34478.80M581.40M

Dividends

Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 62/100 · Moderate. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. Dividends were paid in 17 separate years. There is no dividend yield.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2005-03-22$0.012005-03-252005-04-08Quarterly
2004-12-22$0.012004-12-272005-01-07Quarterly
2004-09-22$0.012004-09-242004-10-08Quarterly
2004-06-30$0.012004-07-022004-07-16Quarterly
2004-03-31$0.012004-04-022004-04-16Quarterly
2003-12-30$0.012004-01-022004-01-16Quarterly
2003-10-01$0.012003-10-032003-10-17Quarterly
2003-07-09$0.012003-07-112003-07-25Quarterly
2003-04-02$0.012003-04-042003-04-18Quarterly
2002-12-31$0.012003-01-032003-01-17Quarterly
2002-10-02$0.012002-10-042002-10-18Quarterly
2002-07-02$0.012002-07-052002-07-19Quarterly
2002-04-02$0.012002-04-042002-04-18Quarterly
2002-01-02$0.012002-01-042002-01-18Quarterly
2001-10-03$0.012001-10-052001-10-19Quarterly
2001-07-03$0.012001-07-062001-07-20Quarterly
2001-04-04$0.012001-04-062001-04-20Quarterly
2001-01-03$0.012001-01-052001-01-19Quarterly
2000-10-04$0.012000-10-062000-10-20Quarterly
2000-07-05$0.012000-07-072000-07-21Quarterly
2000-04-05$0.012000-04-072000-04-21Quarterly
2000-01-10$0.012000-01-072000-01-21Quarterly
1999-10-06$0.011999-10-081999-10-22Quarterly
1999-07-07$0.011999-07-091999-07-23Quarterly
1999-04-07$0.011999-04-091999-04-23Quarterly
1999-01-06$0.011999-01-081999-01-22Quarterly
1998-10-07$0.011998-10-091998-10-23Quarterly
1998-07-08$0.011998-07-101998-07-24Quarterly
1998-04-07$0.011998-04-101998-04-24Quarterly
1998-01-07$0.011998-01-091998-01-23Quarterly
1997-10-08$0.011997-10-101997-10-24Quarterly
1997-07-09$0.011997-07-111997-07-25Quarterly
1997-04-09$0.011997-04-111997-04-25Quarterly
1997-01-08$0.011997-01-101997-01-24Quarterly
1996-10-09$0.011996-10-111996-10-25Quarterly
1996-07-10$0.011996-07-121996-07-26Quarterly
1996-04-10$0.011996-04-121996-04-26Quarterly
1996-01-10$0.011996-01-121996-01-26Quarterly
1995-10-11$0.011995-10-131995-10-27Quarterly
1995-07-05$0.011995-07-071995-07-21Quarterly
1995-04-03$0.011995-04-071995-04-21Quarterly
1995-01-09$0.011995-01-131995-01-27Quarterly
1994-09-13$0.011994-09-191994-10-03Quarterly
1994-07-01$0.01——Quarterly
1994-04-04$0.011994-04-081994-04-22Quarterly
1994-01-10$0.011994-01-141994-01-28Quarterly
1993-09-20$0.011993-09-241993-10-08Quarterly
1993-06-21$0.011993-06-251993-07-09Quarterly
1993-04-02$0.011993-04-091993-04-23Quarterly
1993-01-11$0.011993-01-151993-01-29Special
1992-09-11$0.011992-09-171992-10-01Quarterly
1992-06-22$0.011992-06-261992-07-10Quarterly
1992-03-27$0.011992-04-021992-04-16Quarterly
1991-12-30$0.011992-01-061992-01-20Quarterly
1991-09-12$0.011991-09-181991-10-02Quarterly
1991-06-11$0.011991-06-171991-07-01Quarterly
1991-03-26$0.011991-04-021991-04-17Quarterly
1990-12-14$0.01——Quarterly
1990-09-04$0.001990-09-101990-09-17Quarterly
1990-06-18$0.001990-06-221990-06-29Quarterly
1990-03-05$0.001990-03-091990-03-16Quarterly
1989-12-19$0.011989-12-261990-01-03Semi-Annual
1989-07-14$0.011989-07-201989-08-10Semi-Annual

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-06-23CAHILL JOHN TBuy2.00K$189.20378.40K
2026-06-22Krishnan Ram R.Buy0——
2026-06-17Smith Stacy JBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Smith Stacy JBuy1.09K——
2026-06-17Simons Anna CBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Simons Anna CBuy466——
2026-06-17Howard AyannaBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Howard AyannaBuy466——
2026-06-17Irving BlakeBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Irving BlakeBuy559——
2026-06-17BLASING KARENBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17BLASING KARENBuy590——
2026-06-17rahim ramiBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17rahim ramiBuy466——
2026-06-17Epstein JeffBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Epstein JeffBuy466——
2026-06-17CAHILL JOHN TBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17CAHILL JOHN TBuy621——
2026-06-17Abbosh OmarBuy1.55K——
2026-06-17Abbosh OmarOther0——
2026-06-16Anagnost AndrewBuy2.46K$202.66498.54K
2026-06-15Moorjani JaneshBuy2.50K$197.67494.17K
2026-05-29Smith Stacy JBuy2.74K$231.34633.64K
2026-05-29Smith Stacy JBuy696$230.48160.41K
2026-04-10Anagnost AndrewBuy52.76K——
2026-04-10Pearce RebeccaBuy7.45K——
2026-04-10Moorjani JaneshBuy12.42K——
2026-04-10Keene Ruth AnnBuy7.79K——
2026-04-10Blum Steven MBuy12.92K——
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewBuy43.09K——
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewSell21.37K$247.445.29M
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewSell21.20K$247.445.25M
2026-03-24Blum Steven MBuy15.40K——
2026-03-24Blum Steven MSell6.07K$247.441.50M
2026-03-24Blum Steven MSell5.24K$247.441.30M
2026-03-24Moorjani JaneshBuy18.93K——
2026-03-24Moorjani JaneshSell8.79K$247.442.18M
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaBuy7.75K——
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaSell3.64K$247.44901.67K
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaSell3.70K$247.44916.27K
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnBuy7.75K——
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnSell3.85K$247.44953.88K
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnSell3.17K$247.44785.13K
2025-12-16Moorjani JaneshSell7.77K$294.312.29M
2025-12-02Anagnost AndrewSell26.27K——
2025-09-29Howard AyannaSell917$325.00298.02K
2025-09-05Blum Steven MSell5.27K$322.511.70M
2025-09-05Blum Steven MSell5.26K$323.441.70M
2025-09-05Blum Steven MSell11.37K$324.413.69M
2025-09-05Blum Steven MSell520$325.03169.02K
2025-09-03Keene Ruth AnnSell2.76K$315.10869.99K
2025-08-29Howard AyannaSell3.16K$325.001.03M
2025-08-29Pearce RebeccaSell2.38K$320.00760.64K
2025-08-29Pearce RebeccaSell3.75K$325.001.22M
2025-07-03Pearce RebeccaSell3.25K$315.001.02M
2025-06-30Pearce RebeccaSell3.11K$310.00964.10K
2025-06-24Pearce RebeccaSell2.54K$305.00775.92K
2025-06-18RAFAEL BETSYSell292$296.8586.68K
2025-06-18CAHILL JOHN TBuy846——
2025-06-18CAHILL JOHN TBuy406——
2025-06-18rahim ramiBuy846——
2025-06-18rahim ramiBuy304——
2025-06-18FRENCH R REID JRBuy846——
2025-06-18FRENCH R REID JRBuy386——
2025-06-18Howard AyannaBuy846——
2025-06-18Howard AyannaBuy304——
2025-06-18BLASING KARENBuy846——
2025-06-18BLASING KARENBuy304——
2025-06-18Irving BlakeBuy846——
2025-06-18Irving BlakeBuy345——
2025-06-18Krishnan Ram R.Buy846——
2025-06-18Krishnan Ram R.Buy304——
2025-06-18Epstein JeffBuy846——
2025-06-18Smith Stacy JBuy846——
2025-06-18Smith Stacy JBuy609——
2025-06-18MILLIGAN STEPHEN DBuy846——
2025-06-18MILLIGAN STEPHEN DBuy304——
2025-06-18Simons Anna CBuy846——
2025-06-18Epstein JeffOther0——
2025-06-18Simons Anna COther0——
2025-06-17Pearce RebeccaSell486$300.00145.80K
2025-04-10Blum Steven MBuy13.27K——
2025-04-10Keene Ruth AnnBuy6.75K——
2025-04-10Hope Stephen W.Buy2.30K——
2025-04-10Pearce RebeccaBuy6.52K——
2025-04-01Hope Stephen W.Sell57$261.1814.89K
2025-03-28Hope Stephen W.Sell2.45K$267.29655.40K
2025-03-27Hope Stephen W.Buy1.94K——
2025-03-27Hope Stephen W.Sell689$271.21186.86K
2025-03-27Hope Stephen W.Sell671$271.21181.98K
2025-03-27Pearce RebeccaBuy10.03K——
2025-03-27Pearce RebeccaSell4.72K$271.211.28M
2025-03-27Pearce RebeccaSell3.09K$271.21838.04K
2025-03-27Keene Ruth AnnBuy10.45K——
2025-03-27Keene Ruth AnnSell4.97K$271.211.35M
2025-03-27Keene Ruth AnnSell2.90K$271.21786.78K
2025-03-27Blum Steven MBuy19.91K——
2025-03-27Blum Steven MSell7.84K$271.212.13M
2025-03-27Blum Steven MSell4.72K$271.211.28M
2025-03-27Anagnost AndrewBuy56.49K——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 1.26K, holders -127 vs prior quarter. Ownership 97.07%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.24.84M2.91M+13.25%4.83B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC13.80M17.71K+0.13%2.68B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC11.61M2.92M+33.60%2.26B
STATE STREET CORP10.27M284.62K+2.85%2.00B
INVESCO LTD.7.85M3.40M+76.33%1.53B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC6.89M1.07M+18.30%1.34B
LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P6.34M595.24K+10.37%1.23B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO5.02M818.62K+19.47%980.74M
FMR LLC3.80M-1.23M-24.50%739.55M
NINETY ONE UK LTD3.80M-226.02K-5.61%738.72M
ARISTOTLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC3.56M3.56MNew692.28M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP3.31M161.06K+5.12%642.69M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/2.97M435.55K+17.21%576.73M
NORGES BANK2.90M2.90MNew564.52M
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC2.82M-317.52K-10.13%547.88M
PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDING SA2.75M643.27K+30.58%534.01M
MORGAN STANLEY2.72M-162.67K-5.64%528.67M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP2.60M27+0.00%504.79M
LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC2.18M45.71K+2.15%422.93M
AMUNDI2.00M-112.86K-5.35%388.03M
FIL LTD1.83M197.08K+12.10%355.03M
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA1.77M555.08K+45.79%343.62M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC1.73M403.90K+30.37%336.79M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC1.71M142.23K+9.05%333.34M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.1.71M1.71MNew333.34M

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