AFYA Stock Forecast & Price Target
AFYA$10.09-0.15 -1.51%
$922.30M
Market Cap
6.58
P/E
1.08
Forward P/E
65
Score
AFYA Stock Forecast & Price Target
AFYA price $10.09 -0.15 -1.51%
- Ticker
- AFYA
- Price
- $10.09
- Change
- -0.15 -1.51%
- Market cap ?
- $922.30M
- P/E ?
- 6.58
- Forward P/E ?
- 1.08
- Dividend yield ?
- 6.17%
- Beta ?
- 0.37
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Education & Training Services
- Stocklytics score
- 65
- Value
- 72
- Quality
- 74
- Growth
- 49
Stocklytics score rationale: value 72, quality 74, growth 49.
Financials
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 216008000 | 333935000 | 750630000 | 1201191000 | 1719371000 | 2329057000 | 2875913000 | 3304329000 | 3624629082 |
Afya Limited, operating through its subsidiaries, is a prominent medical education provider in Brazil. The company delivers a comprehensive array of educational products and services primarily focused on the medical field, encompassing medical schools, preparatory courses for medical residency, advanced graduate studies, and various other programs tailored for medical professionals at all career stages. These…
Fair value
AFYA fair value $230.12. Price $10.09. Price is 96% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 79% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 1.16B. Growth 5.97%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 91.45M. Net debt 1.99B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | — | 0.38 | — | 192.70M |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 187.42M | 189.62M |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 192.67M | 204.49M |
| 2026-03-12 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 166.26M | 167.59M |
| 2025-11-12 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 174.05M | 174.53M |
| 2025-08-13 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 169.26M | 173.03M |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 160.33M | 165.50M |
| 2025-03-13 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 136.95M | 160.51M |
| 2024-11-13 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 153.95M | 146.35M |
| 2024-08-15 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 145.00M | 26.93M |
| 2024-05-09 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 158.76M | 29.51M |
| 2024-03-14 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 148.42M | 28.01M |
| 2023-11-13 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 143.49M | 28.91M |
| 2023-08-28 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 147.33M | 28.85M |
| 2023-05-24 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 138.91M | 27.24M |
| 2023-03-22 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 109.05M | 21.82M |
| 2022-11-21 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 108.27M | 106.48M |
| 2022-08-22 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 113.31M | 103.18M |
| 2022-05-23 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 120.06M | 119.82M |
| 2022-03-31 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 88.72M | 90.37M |
| 2021-11-22 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 83.62M | 86.22M |
| 2021-08-26 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 73.93M | 78.75M |
| 2021-05-27 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 69.06M | 71.96M |
| 2021-04-08 | 0.12 | — | 66.28M | — |
| 2020-12-03 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 54.84M | — |
| 2020-08-27 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 51.04M | 205.66M |
| 2020-05-28 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 51.61M | 219.41M |
| 2020-03-26 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 57.71M | 250.23M |
| 2019-12-02 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 50.31M | 156.36M |
| 2019-08-30 | 10.41 | 0.63 | 46.45M | 10.80M |
| 2019-03-31 | 0.12 | — | 36.96M | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 0.08 | — | 32.00M | — |
| 2018-09-30 | 0.07 | — | 22.89M | — |
| 2018-06-30 | 0.06 | — | 19.46M | — |
| 2018-03-31 | 0.06 | — | 18.49M | — |
Dividends
Yield 6.51%. Payout ratio 18.27%. Frequency Annual.
Safety score 72/100 · Moderate. Payout ratio is 18% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividend history is short. Yield is 6.5%, which is on the high side.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | $0.66 | 2026-03-25 | 2026-04-06 | Annual |
| 2025-03-26 | $0.23 | 2025-03-26 | 2025-04-04 | Special |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030-05-01 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Other | 8.00K | $62.59 | 500.72K |
| 2030-05-01 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Other | 14.00K | $62.59 | 876.26K |
| 2030-05-01 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Other | 6.00K | $62.59 | 375.54K |
| 2030-05-01 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Other | 2.00K | $62.59 | 125.18K |
| 2030-05-01 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Other | 36.00K | $62.59 | 2.25M |
| 2028-05-01 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Other | 26.00K | $59.47 | 1.55M |
| 2028-05-01 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Other | 20.40K | $59.47 | 1.21M |
| 2027-05-01 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Other | 21.00K | $52.00 | 1.09M |
| 2027-05-01 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Other | 19.00K | $52.00 | 988.00K |
| 2027-05-01 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Other | 4.91K | $52.00 | 255.48K |
| 2027-05-01 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Other | 50.00K | $52.00 | 2.60M |
| 2027-05-01 | Alves Stella Caldeira Brant Rodrigues | Other | 20.00K | $52.00 | 1.04M |
| 2026-10-05 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Sell | 4.16K | $13.30 | 55.34K |
| 2026-07-01 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 36.20K | $15.00 | 543.06K |
| 2026-06-26 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Sell | 10.00K | $14.80 | 148.00K |
| 2026-06-26 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 41.54K | $15.00 | 623.12K |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Buy | 59.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 16.23K | $14.41 | 233.80K |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 9.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 32.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Sell | 3.50K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Buy | 21.90K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Sell | 6.02K | $14.41 | 86.79K |
| 2026-05-07 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Sell | 15.20K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Buy | 12.78K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Sell | 3.52K | $14.41 | 50.65K |
| 2026-05-07 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Sell | 12.78K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero | Buy | 23.50K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero | Sell | 6.46K | $14.41 | 93.13K |
| 2026-05-07 | Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero | Sell | 3.50K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero | Sell | 16.80K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Buy | 16.20K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 4.46K | $14.41 | 64.20K |
| 2026-05-07 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 2.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 14.20K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | De Souza Portes Meirelles Gustavo | Sell | 7.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | De Souza Portes Meirelles Gustavo | Buy | 7.00K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | De Souza Portes Meirelles Gustavo | Sell | 1.93K | $14.41 | 27.74K |
| 2026-05-07 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Buy | 10.20K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Sell | 2.81K | $14.41 | 40.42K |
| 2026-05-07 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Sell | 10.20K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Buy | 5.74K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Sell | 1.58K | $14.41 | 22.74K |
| 2026-05-07 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Sell | 500 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Sell | 5.24K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Buy | 17.50K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 4.81K | $14.41 | 69.36K |
| 2026-05-07 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 1.50K | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 13.60K | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Other | 36.00K | $52.00 | 1.87M |
| 2026-05-01 | Alves Stella Caldeira Brant Rodrigues | Other | 20.00K | $62.59 | 1.25M |
| 2026-04-22 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Buy | 19.00K | $11.83 | 224.77K |
| 2026-04-22 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 19.00K | $11.83 | 224.77K |
| 2026-04-22 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Buy | 66.00K | $11.83 | 780.78K |
| 2026-04-22 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 30.00K | $11.83 | 354.90K |
| 2026-04-22 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 36.00K | $11.83 | 425.88K |
| 2026-04-17 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Sell | 3.33K | $15.90 | 52.87K |
| 2026-04-13 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 5.00K | $15.35 | 76.75K |
| 2026-04-13 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 6.00K | $15.42 | 92.52K |
| 2026-04-13 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 3.00K | $15.50 | 46.50K |
| 2026-04-09 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 16.28K | $14.53 | 236.53K |
| 2026-04-08 | Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero | Sell | 10.00K | $15.20 | 152.00K |
| 2026-04-07 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Sell | 26.75K | $14.95 | 399.96K |
| 2026-04-07 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Sell | 5.00K | $15.20 | 76.00K |
| 2026-04-06 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 770 | $14.91 | 11.48K |
| 2026-04-02 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 20.90K | $14.94 | 312.25K |
| 2026-04-01 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 19.50K | $14.98 | 292.11K |
| 2026-03-31 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 2.32K | $14.92 | 34.61K |
| 2026-03-30 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 1.51K | $14.91 | 22.51K |
| 2026-03-27 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 300 | $15.00 | 4.50K |
| 2026-03-26 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 800 | $15.21 | 12.17K |
| 2026-03-25 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Sell | 3.90K | $15.18 | 59.20K |
| 2026-03-18 | Esteves Nicolau Carvalho | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Esteves Nicolau Carvalho | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Esteves Nicolau Carvalho | Other | 4.50M | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Junior Lelio de Souza | Other | 29.40K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Basolli Gomiero Mirella | Other | 29.82K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Suhara Marcelo Ken | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DEL BIANCO DENIS | Other | 15.20K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Seibel de Faria Joao Paulo | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE | Other | 13.60K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER | Other | 5.24K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Coelho Ribeiro Erico | Other | 23.80K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco | Other | 32.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Krebs Christina Bacon | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Alves Stella Caldeira Brant Rodrigues | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Alves Stella Caldeira Brant Rodrigues | Other | 15.20K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Claro Lopes Vanessa | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Dominik Dalkmann Benedikt Karl | Other | 0 | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 55, holders +1 vs prior quarter. Ownership 12.22%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | 2.61M | -88.40K | -3.27% | 38.79M |
| SOFTBANK GROUP CORP. | 2.43M | 0 | 0.00% | 36.11M |
| DOMA PERPETUAL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 2.40M | 115.74K | +5.06% | 35.63M |
| BAMCO INC /NY/ | 1.18M | -307.41K | -20.72% | 17.46M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | 343.30K | -35.70K | -9.42% | 5.09M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 323.79K | -10.79K | -3.22% | 4.80M |
| SWEDBANK AB | 189.20K | 0 | 0.00% | 2.81M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 155.71K | -166.57K | -51.69% | 2.31M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 128.44K | -571 | -0.44% | 1.91M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 108.59K | 59.70K | +122.12% | 1.61M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 107.28K | 2.78K | +2.66% | 1.59M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 75.79K | -8.61K | -10.20% | 1.12M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 66.62K | -16.35K | -19.71% | 988.58K |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 63.30K | -2.02K | -3.10% | 939.34K |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 51.38K | -44.72K | -46.53% | 762.46K |
| DODGE & COX | 51.29K | 0 | 0.00% | 761.10K |
| LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 47.45K | -1.33K | -2.72% | 704.14K |
| RENAISSANCE GROUP LLC | 46.72K | -100 | -0.21% | 693.29K |
| R SQUARED LTD | 43.86K | 4.78K | +12.24% | 650.94K |
| ERSTE ASSET MANAGEMENT GMBH | 41.19K | 0 | 0.00% | 612.51K |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 40.78K | 0 | 0.00% | 605.13K |
| ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 40.56K | -10.76K | -20.96% | 601.96K |
| UBS GROUP AG | 39.25K | -9.07K | -18.77% | 582.41K |
| PDT PARTNERS, LLC | 34.03K | -10.19K | -23.04% | 505.02K |
| PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDING SA | 30.06K | 0 | 0.00% | 446.12K |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 8 analysts. Average price target $17.00, +68.6% versus the current price. Low $17.00. High $17.00.
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