Ameresco (AMRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
AMRC$21.35+1.04 +5.12%
$1.13B
Market Cap
38.32
P/E
17.05
Forward P/E
46
Score
Ameresco (AMRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
AMRC price $21.35 +1.04 +5.12%
- Ticker
- AMRC
- Price
- $21.35
- Change
- +1.04 +5.12%
- Market cap ?
- $1.13B
- P/E ?
- 38.32
- Forward P/E ?
- 17.05
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 2.62
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Stocklytics score
- 46
- Value
- 62
- Quality
- 30
- Growth
- 47
Stocklytics score rationale: value 62, quality 30, growth 47.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 651227000 | 717152000 | 787138000 | 866933000 | 1032275000 | 1215697000 | 1824422000 | 1374633000 | 1769928000 | 1932126000 |
Ameresco, Inc. operates as a clean technology integrator, offering a broad spectrum of solutions focused on energy efficiency and sustainable energy generation across the United States, Canada, and global markets. The company serves diverse businesses and organizations by implementing strategies for enhanced energy efficiency, critical infrastructure improvements, bolstered energy security and resilience, improved…
Fair value
AMRC fair value $40.55. Price $21.35. Price is 47% below fair value.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 135.14M. Growth 10.39%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 2.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 53.07M. Net debt 1.87B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | — | 0.57 | — | 572.89M |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 515.46M | 465.18M |
| 2026-05-04 | -0.33 | -0.27 | 401.46M | 362.92M |
| 2026-03-02 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 581.03M | 556.09M |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 525.99M | 556.50M |
| 2025-08-04 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 472.28M | 517.69M |
| 2025-05-05 | -0.11 | -0.26 | 352.83M | 444.55M |
| 2025-02-27 | 0.88 | 0.76 | 532.67M | 525.09M |
| 2024-11-07 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 500.87M | 526.27M |
| 2024-08-05 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 437.98M | 378.79M |
| 2024-05-07 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 298.41M | 255.43M |
| 2024-02-28 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 441.37M | 399.97M |
| 2023-11-06 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 335.15M | 402.80M |
| 2023-07-31 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 327.07M | 290.69M |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 271.04M | 231.97M |
| 2023-02-27 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 331.73M | 368.17M |
| 2022-11-01 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 441.30M | 418.78M |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 577.40M | 511.46M |
| 2022-05-02 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 474.00M | 411.51M |
| 2022-02-28 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 415.89M | 412.84M |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 273.68M | 304.62M |
| 2021-08-02 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 273.92M | 273.92M |
| 2021-05-04 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 252.20M | 208.07M |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 314.32M | — |
| 2020-11-02 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 282.51M | 185.86M |
| 2020-08-03 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 223.04M | 82.17M |
| 2020-05-04 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 212.41M | 168.98M |
| 2020-03-02 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 306.61M | 259.95M |
| 2019-11-05 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 212.03M | 306.26M |
| 2019-08-08 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 198.18M | 165.15M |
| 2019-04-30 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 150.11M | 225.17M |
| 2019-03-06 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 217.37M | 163.03M |
| 2018-10-30 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 205.38M | 142.87M |
| 2018-08-07 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 196.98M | 164.54M |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 167.41M | 22.32M |
| 2018-03-06 | 0.48 | 0.14 | 211.13M | 124.74M |
| 2017-10-31 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 204.74M | 170.58M |
| 2017-08-09 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 166.66M | 154.69M |
| 2017-05-02 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 134.61M | 134.60M |
| 2017-03-02 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 174.22M | 99.54M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 3.00K | $95.31 | 285.93K |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 5.00K | $59.88 | 299.40K |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 4.00K | $21.13 | 84.52K |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 4.00K | $26.36 | 105.44K |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 5.00K | $23.93 | 119.65K |
| 2026-09-25 | Angelico Debra L | Other | 375 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 2.50K | $43.00 | 107.50K |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 5.00K | $59.88 | 299.40K |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 4.00K | $21.13 | 84.52K |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 4.00K | $26.36 | 105.44K |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 5.00K | $23.93 | 119.65K |
| 2026-09-25 | Bradshaw Julie A | Other | 375 | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | Chiplock Mark | Sell | 476 | $22.46 | 10.69K |
| 2026-09-15 | Maltezos Louis P | Sell | 592 | $22.46 | 13.30K |
| 2026-09-10 | Chiplock Mark | Sell | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Chiplock Mark | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 6.25K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Sakellaris George P | Sell | 6.25K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Buy | 2.12K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Sell | 2.12K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Christakis Peter | Buy | 1.75K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Christakis Peter | Sell | 1.75K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Buy | 1.88K | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Sell | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 3.00K | $22.13 | 66.39K |
| 2026-08-27 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 4.00K | $22.84 | 91.36K |
| 2026-08-26 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 1.00K | $21.92 | 21.92K |
| 2026-08-25 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 4.06K | $22.03 | 89.49K |
| 2026-08-25 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 938 | $21.60 | 20.26K |
| 2026-08-24 | Miller Jennifer L | Buy | 2.00K | $20.96 | 41.92K |
| 2026-08-24 | Sutton Joseph W. | Buy | 9.70K | $20.87 | 202.44K |
| 2026-08-24 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 5.00K | $20.91 | 104.55K |
| 2026-08-21 | Cox Brian C | Buy | 4.62K | $21.64 | 100.08K |
| 2026-08-17 | Corrsin David J | Buy | 25.00K | $14.55 | 363.75K |
| 2026-08-11 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 1.00K | $25.90 | 25.90K |
| 2026-08-10 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 1.00K | $25.27 | 25.27K |
| 2026-08-10 | Cox Brian C | Buy | 39.70K | $25.07 | 995.28K |
| 2026-08-07 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 5.00K | $25.95 | 129.75K |
| 2026-08-01 | Cox Brian C | Buy | 5.13K | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Cox Brian C | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Patton Charles R. | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Patton Charles R. | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Buy | 4.81K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Buy | 4.81K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | Buy | 4.81K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | Buy | 4.81K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | Buy | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | Buy | 4.81K | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | Sell | 10.44K | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Buy | 5.00K | $5.80 | 29.00K |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Sell | 5.00K | $36.12 | 180.60K |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Sell | 5.00K | $5.80 | 29.00K |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Buy | 10.00K | $5.80 | 58.00K |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Sell | 10.00K | $30.29 | 302.90K |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | Sell | 10.00K | $5.80 | 58.00K |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | Buy | 10.00K | $4.74 | 47.40K |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | Sell | 7.64K | $32.13 | 245.54K |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | Sell | 2.36K | $32.73 | 77.18K |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | Sell | 10.00K | $4.74 | 47.40K |
| 2026-05-18 | Maltezos Louis P | Buy | 30.00K | $31.02 | 930.60K |
| 2026-05-18 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Buy | 30.00K | $31.02 | 930.60K |
| 2026-05-18 | Christakis Peter | Buy | 30.00K | $31.02 | 930.60K |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Buy | 1.35K | $16.33 | 22.13K |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Sell | 1.35K | $34.00 | 46.07K |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | Sell | 1.35K | $16.33 | 22.13K |
| 2026-04-23 | Sutton Joseph W. | Buy | 10.00K | $4.74 | 47.40K |
| 2026-04-23 | Sutton Joseph W. | Sell | 10.00K | $4.74 | 47.40K |
| 2026-03-12 | Chiplock Mark | Sell | 273 | $25.31 | 6.91K |
| 2026-03-12 | Maltezos Louis P | Sell | 306 | $25.31 | 7.74K |
| 2026-03-12 | Corrsin David J | Sell | 19 | $25.31 | 481 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 3.75K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 100.00K | $26.36 | 2.64M |
| 2026-03-10 | Sakellaris George P | Buy | 10.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Sakellaris George P | Sell | 3.75K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Buy | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Buy | 20.00K | $26.36 | 527.20K |
| 2026-03-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Buy | 4.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | Sell | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Chiplock Mark | Buy | 20.00K | $26.36 | 527.20K |
| 2026-03-10 | Chiplock Mark | Buy | 3.50K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Chiplock Mark | Sell | 750 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Chiplock Mark | Buy | 750 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bakas Michael T | Buy | 20.00K | $26.36 | 527.20K |
| 2026-03-10 | Bakas Michael T | Buy | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bakas Michael T | Buy | 4.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Bakas Michael T | Sell | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Buy | 875 | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Buy | 20.00K | $26.36 | 527.20K |
| 2026-03-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Buy | 5.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Maltezos Louis P | Sell | 875 | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 193, holders +2 vs prior quarter. Ownership 66.11%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 3.37M | -166.81K | -4.71% | 93.14M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 2.65M | 194.78K | +7.93% | 73.18M |
| GRANTHAM, MAYO, VAN OTTERLOO & CO. LLC | 2.03M | -198.68K | -8.91% | 56.05M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 1.60M | 161.67K | +11.23% | 44.19M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 1.60M | 271.61K | +20.43% | 44.19M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.49M | 1.23M | +489.40% | 41.05M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.43M | 71.86K | +5.29% | 39.49M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 1.26M | -13.70K | -1.08% | 34.73M |
| DNB ASSET MANAGEMENT AS | 1.03M | 123.21K | +13.66% | 28.30M |
| ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP | 998.18K | -251.72K | -20.14% | 27.55M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 914.16K | 68.29K | +8.07% | 25.23M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 862.85K | 70.00K | +8.83% | 23.82M |
| HANDELSBANKEN FONDER AB | 857.98K | 42.83K | +5.25% | 23.68M |
| GAGNON SECURITIES LLC | 826.56K | -13.50K | -1.61% | 22.81M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 798.12K | 271.97K | +51.69% | 22.03M |
| LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC | 796.27K | 247.06K | +44.98% | 21.98M |
| FIRST EAGLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 749.08K | 193.75K | +34.89% | 20.67M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 726.03K | 307.90K | +73.64% | 20.04M |
| SWEDBANK AB | 718.00K | 73.00K | +11.32% | 19.82M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 648.02K | -22.60K | -3.37% | 17.89M |
| REDWOOD GROVE CAPITAL, LLC | 543.52K | 74.00K | +15.76% | 15.00M |
| GAGNON ADVISORS, LLC | 472.80K | 0 | 0.00% | 13.05M |
| BANDERA PARTNERS LLC | 476.31K | 0 | 0.00% | 12.15M |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 418.88K | -85.27K | -16.91% | 11.56M |
| MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP | 371.05K | 371.05K | New | 10.24M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 12 analysts. Average price target $44.67, +109.2% versus the current price. Low $36.00. High $62.00.
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