Ardmore Shipping (ASC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
ASC$21.16+0.36 +1.76%
$864.22M
Market Cap
7.58
P/E
5.94
Forward P/E
64
Score
Ardmore Shipping (ASC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
ASC price $21.16 +0.36 +1.76%
- Ticker
- ASC
- Price
- $21.16
- Change
- +0.36 +1.76%
- Market cap ?
- $864.22M
- P/E ?
- 7.58
- Forward P/E ?
- 5.94
- Dividend yield ?
- 6.98%
- Beta ?
- 0.02
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Marine Shipping
- Stocklytics score
- 64
- Value
- 55
- Quality
- 62
- Growth
- 75
Stocklytics score rationale: value 55, quality 62, growth 75.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 164403938 | 195935392 | 210179181 | 230042240 | 220058000 | 192484000 | 445741000 | 395978000 | 405784000 | 310197000 |
Ardmore Shipping Corporation is a global enterprise dedicated to the maritime carriage of refined oil derivatives and various chemical substances. By February 15, 2022, the firm maintained an active fleet of 25 modern, twin-hulled vessels specifically designed for the transport of these product types. It caters to a diverse range of clientele, including prominent oil industry giants, independent petroleum companies…
Fair value
ASC fair value $38.10. Price $21.16. Price is 44% below fair value.
Below fair value, but more expensive than usual. A smaller discount than on 94% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 76.00M. Growth 0.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 40.85M. Net debt 82.03M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | — | 0.49 | — | 59.58M |
| 2026-07-29 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 116.21M | 86.28M |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 87.92M | 58.08M |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 82.91M | 53.60M |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 81.25M | 54.20M |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 72.05M | 48.38M |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 74.00M | 44.45M |
| 2025-02-13 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 82.04M | 43.04M |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 96.12M | 74.25M |
| 2024-07-31 | 1.13 | 1.02 | 121.33M | 74.25M |
| 2024-05-08 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 106.30M | 93.69M |
| 2024-02-15 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 98.88M | 74.25M |
| 2023-11-07 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 86.94M | 59.11M |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 91.93M | 66.69M |
| 2023-05-09 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 118.23M | 87.90M |
| 2023-02-14 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 132.83M | 87.81M |
| 2022-11-02 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 142.42M | 89.72M |
| 2022-07-27 | 0.81 | 0.68 | 107.12M | 60.46M |
| 2022-05-04 | -0.03 | -0.07 | 63.37M | 32.85M |
| 2022-02-15 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 52.46M | 28.32M |
| 2021-11-10 | -0.37 | -0.34 | 47.20M | 43.04M |
| 2021-07-27 | -0.23 | -0.25 | 47.27M | 25.76M |
| 2021-05-05 | -0.26 | -0.28 | 45.55M | 52.90M |
| 2021-02-10 | -0.39 | -0.41 | 41.73M | 44.93M |
| 2020-11-04 | -0.20 | -0.22 | 45.21M | 45.21M |
| 2020-07-28 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 67.93M | 71.25M |
| 2020-05-05 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 65.19M | 45.64M |
| 2020-02-11 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 60.69M | 83.44M |
| 2019-11-05 | -0.17 | -0.18 | 52.10M | 55.16M |
| 2019-07-31 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 54.99M | 54.99M |
| 2019-05-01 | -0.08 | -0.11 | 62.27M | 77.83M |
| 2019-02-06 | -0.26 | -0.24 | 58.42M | 53.93M |
| 2018-11-07 | -0.37 | -0.33 | 48.92M | 46.28M |
| 2018-07-31 | -0.25 | -0.26 | 52.36M | 50.35M |
| 2018-05-02 | -0.16 | -0.15 | 50.47M | 50.47M |
| 2018-02-07 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 47.77M | 59.71M |
| 2017-11-01 | -0.14 | -0.14 | 48.65M | 52.12M |
| 2017-08-02 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 49.85M | 58.16M |
| 2017-05-03 | -0.06 | -0.10 | 49.67M | 82.78M |
| 2017-02-07 | -0.11 | -0.06 | 43.18M | 43.18M |
Dividends
Yield 6.48%. Payout ratio 26.11%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 69/100 · Moderate. Payout ratio is 26% of earnings. Dividends use most of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 9 separate years. Yield is 6.5%, which is on the high side.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | $0.79 | 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-15 | Quarterly |
| 2026-05-29 | $0.39 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-12 | Quarterly |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.09 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-13 | Quarterly |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.10 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-12-12 | Quarterly |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.07 | 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-12 | Quarterly |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.05 | 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-13 | Quarterly |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.08 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-14 | Quarterly |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.18 | 2024-11-29 | 2024-12-13 | Quarterly |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.38 | 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-13 | Quarterly |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.31 | 2024-05-31 | 2024-06-14 | Quarterly |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.21 | 2024-02-29 | 2024-03-15 | Quarterly |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.16 | 2023-11-30 | 2023-12-15 | Quarterly |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.19 | 2023-08-31 | 2023-09-15 | Quarterly |
| 2023-05-30 | $0.35 | 2023-05-31 | 2023-06-15 | Quarterly |
| 2023-02-27 | $0.45 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-03-15 | Quarterly |
| 2020-02-20 | $0.05 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-02-28 | Irregular |
| 2016-08-12 | $0.11 | 2016-08-16 | 2016-08-31 | Quarterly |
| 2016-05-12 | $0.16 | 2016-05-16 | 2016-05-31 | Quarterly |
| 2016-02-10 | $0.13 | 2016-02-15 | 2016-02-29 | Quarterly |
| 2015-11-04 | $0.31 | 2015-11-06 | 2015-11-16 | Quarterly |
| 2015-07-29 | $0.10 | 2015-07-31 | 2015-08-14 | Quarterly |
| 2015-04-28 | $0.10 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-05-15 | Quarterly |
| 2015-01-28 | $0.10 | 2015-01-30 | 2015-02-18 | Quarterly |
| 2014-10-29 | $0.10 | 2014-10-31 | 2014-11-18 | Quarterly |
| 2014-07-29 | $0.10 | 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-14 | Quarterly |
| 2014-04-28 | $0.10 | 2014-04-30 | 2014-05-15 | Quarterly |
| 2014-01-29 | $0.10 | 2014-01-31 | 2014-02-14 | Quarterly |
| 2013-11-06 | $0.07 | 2013-11-08 | 2013-11-20 | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-03-01 | O'Driscoll Aideen Siobhan | Other | 6.60K | — | — |
| 2027-03-01 | Ruppelt Gernot | Other | 32.98K | — | — |
| 2027-03-01 | Gaina Robert Cristian | Other | 7.92K | — | — |
| 2027-03-01 | Russell John Mr | Other | 5.28K | — | — |
| 2027-03-01 | Kelleher Bart B | Other | 27.31K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Fok James Alistair | Buy | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Fok James Alistair | Sell | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | BERGLUND MATS | Buy | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | BERGLUND MATS | Sell | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Tikka Kirsi | Buy | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Tikka Kirsi | Sell | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Buy | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Sell | 8.47K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | McWilliams Curtis B | Buy | 15.36K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | McWilliams Curtis B | Sell | 15.36K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Tikka Kirsi | Other | 8.15K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Other | 8.15K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Fok James Alistair | Other | 8.15K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | BERGLUND MATS | Other | 8.15K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | McWilliams Curtis B | Other | 14.78K | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | Fok James Alistair | Buy | 257 | $17.06 | 4.38K |
| 2026-06-15 | Fok James Alistair | Buy | 4.56K | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | BERGLUND MATS | Buy | 5.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | Tikka Kirsi | Buy | 4.84K | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Buy | 5.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | McWilliams Curtis B | Buy | 9.11K | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | McWilliams Curtis B | Sell | 16.28K | $19.38 | 315.45K |
| 2026-05-15 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Sell | 1.53K | $18.93 | 29.04K |
| 2026-05-15 | McWilliams Curtis B | Sell | 848 | $19.01 | 16.12K |
| 2026-05-13 | McWilliams Curtis B | Sell | 303 | $19.02 | 5.76K |
| 2026-05-12 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Sell | 1.97K | $19.02 | 37.39K |
| 2026-05-12 | McWilliams Curtis B | Sell | 2.57K | $19.05 | 49.00K |
| 2026-05-12 | Tikka Kirsi | Sell | 12.00K | $18.93 | 227.16K |
| 2026-05-12 | O'Driscoll Aideen Siobhan | Sell | 15.85K | $18.96 | 300.48K |
| 2026-05-05 | Kelleher Bart B | Sell | 8.00K | $19.07 | 152.56K |
| 2026-03-18 | O'Driscoll Aideen Siobhan | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Ruppelt Gernot | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Gaina Robert Cristian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Tikka Kirsi | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | de Jong Helen Johanna | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kelleher Bart B | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Fok James Alistair | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | BERGLUND MATS | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | McWilliams Curtis B | Other | 0 | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 197, holders +2 vs prior quarter. Ownership 85.00%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 3.85M | 665.59K | +20.93% | 53.88M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 2.50M | 45.38K | +1.85% | 35.00M |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 1.98M | 116.15K | +6.22% | 27.78M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 1.74M | 28.97K | +1.70% | 24.31M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | 1.58M | -156.21K | -8.99% | 22.14M |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.50M | 125.53K | +9.12% | 21.03M |
| PRIVATE MANAGEMENT GROUP INC | 1.07M | -145.46K | -11.98% | 14.97M |
| NUVEEN, LLC | 1.06M | -428.19K | -28.74% | 14.87M |
| FLAT FOOTED LLC | 948.87K | -55.83K | -5.56% | 13.29M |
| RBF CAPITAL, LLC | 901.88K | 0 | 0.00% | 12.64M |
| ARISTOTLE CAPITAL BOSTON, LLC | 887.48K | -51.18K | -5.45% | 12.43M |
| TICINO WEALTH | 714.74K | 8.37K | +1.18% | 10.01M |
| QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD | 703.26K | -205.52K | -22.61% | 9.85M |
| HARTREE PARTNERS, LP | 672.90K | 157.90K | +30.66% | 9.43M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 651.05K | 184.94K | +39.68% | 9.12M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 648.49K | 24.47K | +3.92% | 9.09M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 635.91K | 604.91K | +1951.33% | 8.91M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 614.39K | -138.59K | -18.41% | 8.61M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 597.97K | 405.20K | +210.20% | 8.38M |
| CASTLEKNIGHT MANAGEMENT LP | 566.96K | 272.58K | +92.60% | 7.94M |
| CONNOR, CLARK & LUNN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LTD. | 543.55K | 146.01K | +36.73% | 7.62M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 513.14K | 86.35K | +20.23% | 7.19M |
| RUSSELL INVESTMENTS GROUP, LTD. | 422.94K | -55.88K | -11.67% | 5.97M |
| FEDERATED HERMES, INC. | 411.65K | 8.57K | +2.13% | 5.77M |
| TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | 352.96K | 49.13K | +16.17% | 4.94M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 17 analysts. Average price target $16.13, -23.8% versus the current price. Low $8.50. High $20.00.
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