ASML Stock Forecast & Price Target
ASML$1,668.18+5.33 +0.32%
$642.95B
Market Cap
40.18
P/E
40.58
Forward P/E
68
Score
ASML Stock Forecast & Price Target
ASML price $1,668.18 +5.33 +0.32%
- Ticker
- ASML
- Price
- $1,668.18
- Change
- +5.33 +0.32%
- Market cap ?
- $642.95B
- P/E ?
- 40.18
- Forward P/E ?
- 40.58
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.55%
- Beta ?
- 1.30
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Stocklytics score
- 68
- Value
- 36
- Quality
- 84
- Growth
- 85
Stocklytics score rationale: value 36, quality 84, growth 85.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6875100000 | 8962700000 | 10944000000 | 11820000000 | 13978500000 | 18611000000 | 21173400000 | 27558500000 | 28262900000 | 32667300000 |
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various…
Fair value
ASML fair value $1,590.52. Price $1,668.18. Price is about fair value.
Above fair value, around its usual premium.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 21.14B. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.46% (beta 1.3). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 385.42M. Net debt -8.53B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-27 | — | 16.61 | — | 16.34B |
| 2026-10-14 | 14.89 | 12.47 | 12.97B | 13.14B |
| 2026-07-15 | 8.68 | 7.98 | 10.67B | 10.24B |
| 2026-04-15 | 8.37 | 7.72 | 10.34B | 10.10B |
| 2026-01-28 | 8.55 | 9.04 | 11.61B | 11.19B |
| 2025-10-15 | 6.41 | 6.36 | 8.74B | 9.02B |
| 2025-07-16 | 6.84 | 6.10 | 8.92B | 8.77B |
| 2025-04-16 | 6.31 | 6.12 | 8.81B | 8.32B |
| 2025-01-29 | 7.14 | 7.41 | 9.65B | 9.54B |
| 2024-10-15 | 5.74 | 5.29 | 8.14B | 7.87B |
| 2024-07-17 | 4.36 | 4.06 | 6.82B | 6.53B |
| 2024-04-17 | 3.31 | 3.00 | 5.63B | 5.88B |
| 2024-01-24 | 5.64 | 5.12 | 7.89B | 7.44B |
| 2023-10-18 | 5.10 | 4.86 | 7.03B | 7.19B |
| 2023-07-19 | 5.49 | 5.06 | 7.72B | 7.40B |
| 2023-04-19 | 5.74 | 4.59 | 7.39B | 6.84B |
| 2023-01-25 | 5.11 | 4.62 | 7.01B | 6.78B |
| 2022-10-19 | 4.25 | 3.94 | 5.66B | 5.49B |
| 2022-07-20 | 3.77 | 3.57 | 5.55B | 5.54B |
| 2022-04-20 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 3.84B | 3.86B |
| 2022-01-19 | 5.01 | 4.31 | 5.65B | 5.94B |
| 2021-10-20 | 5.02 | 4.69 | 6.08B | 6.35B |
| 2021-07-21 | 3.04 | 2.97 | 4.77B | 6.35B |
| 2021-04-21 | 3.86 | 3.08 | 5.13B | 3.15B |
| 2021-01-20 | 3.96 | 3.05 | 5.22B | 4.00B |
| 2020-10-14 | 2.98 | 2.58 | 4.65B | 4.36B |
| 2020-07-15 | 2.01 | 1.68 | 3.74B | 3.29B |
| 2020-04-15 | 1.03 | 1.31 | 2.66B | 3.02B |
| 2020-01-22 | 2.98 | 2.95 | 4.58B | 3.57B |
| 2019-10-16 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 3.27B | 2.91B |
| 2019-07-17 | 1.27 | 1.09 | 2.92B | 2.25B |
| 2019-04-17 | 1.11 | 0.55 | 2.50B | 2.84B |
| 2019-01-23 | 2.19 | 2.40 | 3.75B | 3.02B |
| 2018-10-17 | 1.86 | 2.08 | 3.24B | 2.70B |
| 2018-07-18 | 1.63 | 1.43 | 3.18B | 2.34B |
| 2018-04-18 | 1.55 | 1.39 | 2.82B | 2.15B |
| 2018-01-17 | 1.77 | 1.25 | 3.00B | 2.48B |
| 2017-10-18 | 1.52 | 1.28 | 2.88B | 2.01B |
| 2017-07-19 | 1.23 | 1.03 | 2.39B | 1.80B |
| 2017-04-19 | 1.12 | 0.99 | 2.08B | 1.73B |
Dividends
Yield 0.67%. Payout ratio 22.23%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 22% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 20 separate years. Yield is 0.7%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | $2.11 | 2026-10-27 | 2026-11-04 | Quarterly |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.14 | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-05 | Quarterly |
| 2026-04-27 | $3.17 | 2026-04-27 | 2026-05-05 | Quarterly |
| 2026-02-10 | $1.91 | 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-18 | Quarterly |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.86 | 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-06 | Quarterly |
| 2025-07-29 | $1.85 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-08-06 | Quarterly |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.09 | 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-06 | Quarterly |
| 2025-02-11 | $1.57 | 2025-02-11 | 2025-02-19 | Quarterly |
| 2024-10-29 | $1.64 | 2024-10-29 | 2024-11-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-07-29 | $1.64 | 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-04-26 | $1.87 | 2024-04-29 | 2024-05-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-02-05 | $1.56 | 2024-02-06 | 2024-02-14 | Quarterly |
| 2023-11-01 | $1.53 | 2023-11-02 | 2023-11-10 | Quarterly |
| 2023-08-01 | $1.59 | 2023-08-02 | 2023-08-10 | Quarterly |
| 2023-05-01 | $1.84 | 2023-05-02 | 2023-05-10 | Quarterly |
| 2023-02-06 | $1.49 | 2023-02-07 | 2023-02-15 | Quarterly |
| 2022-11-03 | $1.34 | 2022-11-04 | 2022-11-14 | Quarterly |
| 2022-08-04 | $1.40 | 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-12 | Quarterly |
| 2022-05-03 | $3.90 | 2022-05-04 | 2022-05-12 | Irregular |
| 2021-11-02 | $2.09 | 2021-11-03 | 2021-11-12 | Semi-Annual |
| 2021-05-03 | $1.89 | 2021-05-04 | 2021-05-12 | Semi-Annual |
| 2020-11-02 | $1.40 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-13 | Semi-Annual |
| 2020-04-24 | $1.46 | 2020-04-27 | 2020-05-06 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-11-04 | $1.17 | 2019-11-05 | 2019-11-15 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-04-26 | $2.39 | 2019-04-29 | 2019-05-08 | Annual |
| 2018-04-27 | $1.72 | 2018-04-30 | 2018-05-09 | Annual |
| 2017-04-28 | $1.31 | 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-12 | Annual |
| 2016-05-03 | $1.15 | 2016-05-05 | 2016-05-17 | Annual |
| 2015-04-24 | $0.81 | — | 2015-05-11 | Annual |
| 2014-04-25 | $0.83 | — | 2014-05-13 | Annual |
| 2013-04-26 | $0.69 | 2013-04-30 | 2013-05-14 | Semi-Annual |
| 2012-04-30 | $0.59 | — | 2012-05-15 | Annual |
| 2011-04-26 | $0.70 | — | 2011-05-10 | Annual |
| 2010-03-26 | $0.28 | — | — | Annual |
| 2009-03-30 | $0.27 | — | — | Annual |
| 2008-04-07 | $0.51 | 2008-04-09 | 2008-05-14 | Semi-Annual |
| 2007-10-01 | $3.69 | — | 2007-10-09 | Semi-Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 2.62K. Ownership 19.87%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | 5.48M | New | New | 10.90B |
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.74M | New | New | 9.43B |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 3.73M | New | New | 7.41B |
| INVESCO LTD. | 3.14M | New | New | 6.25B |
| STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO | 2.76M | New | New | 5.49B |
| VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP | 2.46M | New | New | 4.89B |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 2.44M | New | New | 4.80B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 2.40M | New | New | 4.51B |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 1.93M | New | New | 3.85B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 1.84M | New | New | 3.65B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 1.79M | New | New | 3.56B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 1.66M | New | New | 3.31B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 1.58M | New | New | 3.14B |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 1.46M | New | New | 2.91B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 1.44M | New | New | 2.86B |
| WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.45M | New | New | 2.73B |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 1.28M | New | New | 2.55B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 1.12M | New | New | 2.22B |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 1.10M | New | New | 2.18B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 953.60K | New | New | 1.90B |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 928.54K | New | New | 1.85B |
| CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, LLC | 895.43K | New | New | 1.78B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 840.94K | New | New | 1.67B |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 801.82K | New | New | 1.60B |
| NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC | 754.42K | New | New | 1.50B |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 45 analysts. Average price target $2,330.75, +39.7% versus the current price. Low $2,100.00. High $2,623.00.
Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn