Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock Price & Analysis
CGAU$20.48-0.70 -3.31%
$4.01B
Market Cap
6.65
P/E
12.71
Forward P/E
61
Score
Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock Price & Analysis
CGAU price $20.48 -0.70 -3.31%
- Ticker
- CGAU
- Price
- $20.48
- Change
- -0.70 -3.31%
- Market cap ?
- $4.01B
- P/E ?
- 6.65
- Forward P/E ?
- 12.71
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.95%
- Beta ?
- 1.56
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Gold
- Stocklytics score
- 61
- Value
- 55
- Quality
- 77
- Growth
- 50
Stocklytics score rationale: value 55, quality 77, growth 50.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 760758000 | 1199028000 | 1129336000 | 1375328000 | 721262000 | 900141000 | 850194000 | 1094897000 | 1214503000 | 1384562000 |
Centerra Gold Inc. is an enterprise engaged in gold mining, with activities encompassing the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its geographical reach spans North America, Turkey, and other international regions. Prominent among its ventures are the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine, wholly owned and located in British Columbia, Canada, and the Öksüt Gold…
Fair value
CGAU fair value $31.60. Price $20.48. Price is 35% below fair value.
Below fair value, around its usual discount.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 237.03M. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.6). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 195.61M. Net debt -498.36M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Free cash flow adds back growth capex above depreciation.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | — | 0.33 | — | 440.83M |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 442.71M | 394.27M |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 484.70M | 368.98M |
| 2026-02-19 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 401.60M | 360.50M |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 395.16M | 339.79M |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 288.34M | 302.11M |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 299.50M | 290.58M |
| 2025-02-20 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 302.39M | 316.92M |
| 2024-10-31 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 323.93M | 327.00M |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 275.17M | 291.60M |
| 2024-05-14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 303.40M | 228.00M |
| 2024-02-22 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 345.36M | 354.54M |
| 2023-10-31 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 343.89M | 326.37M |
| 2023-07-31 | -0.20 | -0.19 | 184.52M | 168.65M |
| 2023-05-15 | -0.24 | -0.08 | 226.53M | 161.64M |
| 2023-02-23 | -0.06 | -0.09 | 208.30M | 159.67M |
| 2022-11-07 | -0.06 | -0.05 | 179.01M | 154.93M |
| 2022-08-10 | -0.12 | -0.05 | 167.65M | 143.38M |
| 2022-05-04 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 295.22M | 247.59M |
| 2022-02-25 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 251.08M | 225.27M |
| 2021-11-05 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 220.56M | — |
| 2021-08-10 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 202.26M | — |
| 2021-05-11 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 401.85M | — |
| 2021-02-24 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 386.81M | — |
| 2020-11-04 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 515.17M | — |
| 2020-07-31 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 412.65M | — |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 374.05M | — |
| 2020-03-26 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 312.50M | — |
| 2019-10-30 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 388.28M | — |
| 2019-07-30 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 340.51M | — |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 334.04M | — |
| 2019-02-23 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 391.52M | — |
| 2018-10-31 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 259.10M | — |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.15 | 0.59 | 243.31M | — |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 235.40M | — |
| 2018-02-23 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 358.23M | — |
| 2017-10-31 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 276.24M | — |
| 2017-07-31 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 279.22M | — |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 285.34M | — |
| 2017-02-24 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 305.72M | — |
Dividends
Yield 0.99%. Payout ratio 6.32%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 6% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 14 separate years. Yield is 1.0%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | 2026-08-19 | 2026-09-02 | Quarterly |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.05 | 2026-05-21 | 2026-06-04 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-12 | $0.05 | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-26 | Quarterly |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.05 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-26 | Quarterly |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.05 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-09-04 | Quarterly |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.05 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-05 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-13 | $0.05 | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-27 | Quarterly |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.05 | 2024-11-13 | 2024-11-27 | Quarterly |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.05 | 2024-08-15 | 2024-08-29 | Quarterly |
| 2024-05-29 | $0.05 | 2024-05-29 | 2024-06-12 | Quarterly |
| 2024-03-12 | $0.05 | 2024-03-13 | 2024-03-27 | Quarterly |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.05 | 2023-11-15 | 2023-11-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.05 | 2023-08-15 | 2023-08-29 | Quarterly |
| 2023-05-26 | $0.05 | 2023-05-29 | 2023-06-12 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-13 | $0.05 | 2023-03-14 | 2023-03-28 | Quarterly |
| 2022-11-17 | $0.05 | 2022-11-18 | 2022-12-02 | Quarterly |
| 2022-08-24 | $0.05 | 2022-08-25 | 2022-09-08 | Quarterly |
| 2022-05-17 | $0.05 | 2022-05-18 | 2022-06-01 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-10 | $0.05 | 2022-03-11 | 2022-03-25 | Quarterly |
| 2021-11-18 | $0.06 | 2021-11-19 | 2021-12-03 | Quarterly |
| 2021-08-24 | $0.06 | 2021-08-25 | 2021-09-08 | Quarterly |
| 2021-05-26 | $0.04 | 2021-05-27 | 2021-06-10 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-15 | $0.04 | 2021-03-16 | 2021-04-06 | Quarterly |
| 2020-11-19 | $0.04 | 2020-11-20 | 2020-12-04 | Quarterly |
| 2020-08-13 | $0.04 | 2020-08-14 | 2020-08-28 | Quarterly |
| 2020-05-20 | $0.03 | 2020-05-21 | 2020-06-04 | Irregular |
| 2020-04-07 | $0.03 | 2020-04-08 | 2020-04-22 | Irregular |
| 2016-08-09 | $0.03 | 2016-08-11 | 2016-08-25 | Quarterly |
| 2016-05-17 | $0.03 | 2016-05-19 | 2016-06-02 | Quarterly |
| 2016-03-08 | $0.03 | 2016-03-10 | 2016-03-24 | Quarterly |
| 2015-11-24 | $0.03 | 2015-11-26 | 2015-12-03 | Quarterly |
| 2015-08-11 | $0.03 | 2015-08-13 | 2015-08-27 | Quarterly |
| 2015-05-19 | $0.03 | 2015-05-21 | 2015-06-04 | Quarterly |
| 2015-03-03 | $0.03 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-19 | Quarterly |
| 2014-11-10 | $0.04 | 2014-11-13 | 2014-11-27 | Quarterly |
| 2014-08-12 | $0.04 | 2014-08-14 | 2014-08-28 | Quarterly |
| 2014-05-20 | $0.04 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-06-05 | Quarterly |
| 2014-03-04 | $0.04 | 2014-03-06 | 2014-03-20 | Quarterly |
| 2013-11-13 | $0.04 | 2013-11-15 | 2013-11-25 | Quarterly |
| 2013-08-13 | $0.04 | 2013-08-15 | 2013-08-29 | Quarterly |
| 2013-05-21 | $0.04 | 2013-05-23 | 2013-06-06 | Quarterly |
| 2013-03-05 | $0.04 | 2013-03-07 | 2013-03-21 | Quarterly |
| 2012-11-20 | $0.04 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-12-06 | Quarterly |
| 2012-08-15 | $0.04 | 2012-08-17 | 2012-08-30 | Quarterly |
| 2012-05-29 | $0.04 | 2012-05-31 | 2012-06-15 | Annual |
| 2011-05-10 | $0.42 | 2011-05-12 | 2011-05-18 | Irregular |
| 2010-08-16 | $0.06 | 2010-08-18 | 2010-09-08 | Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 231, holders +14 vs prior quarter. Ownership 73.76%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD | 16.34M | 9.29M | +131.68% | 258.97M |
| DONALD SMITH & CO., INC. | 15.45M | -323.34K | -2.05% | 245.00M |
| VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP | 13.34M | -2.73M | -16.97% | 211.57M |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 7.61M | -99.90K | -1.30% | 120.61M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 7.45M | -867.21K | -10.43% | 118.02M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 6.52M | 1.09M | +20.08% | 103.37M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 5.84M | 39.49K | +0.68% | 92.62M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 4.20M | -2.62M | -38.40% | 66.60M |
| FMR LLC | 3.83M | 1.12M | +41.20% | 60.78M |
| WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC | 3.48M | 762.90K | +28.12% | 55.13M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 3.10M | -67.60K | -2.14% | 49.10M |
| BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ | 2.69M | -401.15K | -12.98% | 42.59M |
| NORGES BANK | 2.65M | 2.65M | New | 41.98M |
| NUVEEN, LLC | 2.59M | 333.09K | +14.78% | 41.01M |
| HILLSDALE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC. | 2.55M | -673.60K | -20.87% | 40.46M |
| CONNOR, CLARK & LUNN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LTD. | 2.34M | -1.05M | -30.86% | 37.14M |
| HEARTLAND ADVISORS INC | 2.15M | -67.28K | -3.04% | 34.08M |
| NEUMEIER POMA INVESTMENT COUNSEL LLC | 2.05M | 1.78M | +654.37% | 32.52M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 1.87M | 174.14K | +10.25% | 29.72M |
| MEREWETHER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LP | 1.87M | -391.39K | -17.28% | 29.68M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 1.77M | 404.24K | +29.64% | 28.04M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 1.76M | 422 | +0.02% | 27.96M |
| TORONTO DOMINION BANK | 1.57M | 1.20M | +320.64% | 24.95M |
| CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.29M | 40.37K | +3.24% | 20.38M |
| PICTON MAHONEY ASSET MANAGEMENT | 1.24M | 143.99K | +13.09% | 19.68M |
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