Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
CMG$31.16+2.43 +8.46%
$39.43B
Market Cap
26.90
P/E
27.19
Forward P/E
47
Score
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
CMG price $31.16 +2.43 +8.46%
- Ticker
- CMG
- Price
- $31.16
- Change
- +2.43 +8.46%
- Market cap ?
- $39.43B
- P/E ?
- 26.90
- Forward P/E ?
- 27.19
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 0.96
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Stocklytics score
- 47
- Value
- 48
- Quality
- 43
- Growth
- 50
Stocklytics score rationale: value 48, quality 43, growth 50.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3904384000 | 4476412000 | 4864985000 | 5586369000 | 5984634000 | 7547061000 | 8634652000 | 9871649000 | 11313853000 | 11925601000 |
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport…
Fair value
CMG fair value $28.31. Price $31.16. Price is 10% above fair value.
Above fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 97% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 1.51B. Growth 16.12%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 9.57% (beta 1.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.27B. Net debt 4.73B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-09 | — | 0.27 | — | 3.28B |
| 2026-10-28 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 3.29B | 3.29B |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 3.35B | 3.33B |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 3.09B | 3.07B |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 2.98B | 2.96B |
| 2025-10-29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 3.00B | 3.02B |
| 2025-07-23 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 3.06B | 3.11B |
| 2025-04-23 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 2.88B | 2.94B |
| 2025-02-04 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 2.85B | 2.85B |
| 2024-10-29 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 2.79B | 2.82B |
| 2024-07-24 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 2.97B | 2.94B |
| 2024-04-24 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 2.70B | 2.68B |
| 2024-02-06 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 2.52B | 2.49B |
| 2023-10-26 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 2.47B | 2.47B |
| 2023-07-26 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 2.51B | 2.53B |
| 2023-04-25 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 2.37B | 2.34B |
| 2023-02-07 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 2.18B | 2.23B |
| 2022-10-25 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 2.22B | 2.23B |
| 2022-07-26 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 2.21B | 2.25B |
| 2022-04-26 | 5.70 | 0.11 | 2.02B | 2.01B |
| 2022-02-08 | 5.58 | 0.10 | 1.96B | 1.96B |
| 2021-10-21 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1.95B | 1.93B |
| 2021-07-20 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1.89B | 1.93B |
| 2021-04-21 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1.74B | 1.57B |
| 2021-02-02 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1.61B | 1.72B |
| 2020-10-21 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1.60B | 1.48B |
| 2020-07-22 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.36B | 1.19B |
| 2020-04-21 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.41B | 1.33B |
| 2020-02-04 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.44B | 1.38B |
| 2019-10-22 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1.40B | 1.18B |
| 2019-07-23 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1.43B | 1.35B |
| 2019-04-24 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1.31B | 1.16B |
| 2019-02-06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1.23B | 975.81M |
| 2018-10-25 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1.23B | 1.13B |
| 2018-07-26 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1.27B | 1.24B |
| 2018-04-25 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1.15B | 846.47M |
| 2018-02-06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1.11B | 1.09B |
| 2017-10-24 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1.13B | 1.38B |
| 2017-07-25 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.17B | 1.10B |
| 2017-04-25 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1.07B | 848.36M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-07 | Bush Matthew R | Other | 12.38K | $57.27 | 708.83K |
| 2026-10-01 | Rymer Adam T | Sell | 3.25K | $31.95 | 103.93K |
| 2026-09-17 | Sami Sabir | Buy | 4.75K | $33.51 | 159.07K |
| 2026-09-14 | Sami Sabir | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Rymer Adam T | Sell | 9.28K | $35.29 | 327.35K |
| 2026-08-22 | Eskenazi Ilene | Sell | 19.70K | $35.29 | 695.25K |
| 2026-08-22 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 27.58K | $35.29 | 973.37K |
| 2026-08-22 | Boatwright Scott | Sell | 31.52K | $35.29 | 1.11M |
| 2026-08-22 | Schalow Laurie | Sell | 20.07K | $35.29 | 708.45K |
| 2026-08-21 | Bush Matthew R | Sell | 2.67K | $35.75 | 95.63K |
| 2026-08-07 | Machado Fernando | Buy | 235.18K | $32.79 | 7.71M |
| 2026-08-07 | Machado Fernando | Buy | 76.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | WINSTON MARY A | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | weinstein joshua ian | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Maw Scott Harlan | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Hickenlooper Robin S | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Gutierrez Mauricio | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Fuentes Laura | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Carey Matt | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-06-11 | Baldocchi Albert S | Buy | 6.88K | $31.25 | 215.00K |
| 2026-05-25 | Machado Fernando | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | Baldocchi Albert S | Sell | 6.67K | — | — |
| 2026-02-24 | FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA | Sell | 3.35K | $36.58 | 122.54K |
| 2026-02-15 | Schalow Laurie | Buy | 76.58K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Schalow Laurie | Sell | 37.11K | $35.84 | 1.33M |
| 2026-02-15 | Rymer Adam T | Buy | 25.53K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Rymer Adam T | Sell | 8.97K | $35.84 | 321.52K |
| 2026-02-15 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 254.85K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 134.18K | $35.84 | 4.81M |
| 2026-02-15 | Bush Matthew R | Buy | 6.42K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Bush Matthew R | Sell | 2.37K | $35.84 | 84.76K |
| 2026-02-15 | Boatwright Scott | Buy | 229.46K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Boatwright Scott | Sell | 120.81K | $35.84 | 4.33M |
| 2026-02-09 | Schalow Laurie | Sell | 182 | $39.39 | 7.17K |
| 2026-02-09 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 659 | $39.39 | 25.96K |
| 2026-02-09 | Bush Matthew R | Sell | 475 | $39.39 | 18.71K |
| 2026-02-09 | Boatwright Scott | Sell | 8.05K | $39.39 | 317.01K |
| 2026-02-09 | Bush Matthew R | Other | 3.35K | $52.77 | 176.77K |
| 2026-02-09 | Rymer Adam T | Other | 20.75K | $52.77 | 1.09M |
| 2026-02-09 | McConnell Jamie | Other | 18.55K | $52.77 | 978.83K |
| 2026-02-06 | Schalow Laurie | Buy | 8.89K | $39.39 | 350.02K |
| 2026-02-06 | Schalow Laurie | Buy | 28.81K | $39.39 | 1.13M |
| 2026-02-06 | Rymer Adam T | Buy | 115.23K | $39.39 | 4.54M |
| 2026-02-06 | Kidd Jason Allan | Buy | 53.50K | $39.39 | 2.11M |
| 2026-02-06 | Kidd Jason Allan | Buy | 16.50K | $39.39 | 650.01K |
| 2026-02-06 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 86.10K | $11.65 | 1.00M |
| 2026-02-06 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 61.08K | $40.01 | 2.44M |
| 2026-02-06 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 25.02K | $40.10 | 1.00M |
| 2026-02-06 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 213.99K | $39.39 | 8.43M |
| 2026-02-06 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 86.10K | $11.66 | 1.00M |
| 2026-02-06 | Eskenazi Ilene | Buy | 20.31K | $39.39 | 800.01K |
| 2026-02-06 | Eskenazi Ilene | Buy | 65.84K | $39.39 | 2.59M |
| 2026-02-06 | Bush Matthew R | Buy | 20.58K | $39.39 | 810.53K |
| 2026-02-06 | Bush Matthew R | Buy | 3.17K | $39.39 | 125.02K |
| 2026-02-06 | Boatwright Scott | Buy | 444.44K | $39.39 | 17.51M |
| 2025-12-12 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 100.00K | $11.65 | 1.17M |
| 2025-12-12 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 32.35K | $36.03 | 1.17M |
| 2025-12-12 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 67.65K | $36.05 | 2.44M |
| 2025-12-12 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 100.00K | $11.66 | 1.17M |
| 2025-12-11 | Baldocchi Albert S | Buy | 1.00M | — | — |
| 2025-12-11 | Baldocchi Albert S | Sell | 1.00M | — | — |
| 2025-12-01 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 93.00K | $11.66 | 1.08M |
| 2025-12-01 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 31.11K | $34.84 | 1.08M |
| 2025-12-01 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 61.89K | $34.67 | 2.15M |
| 2025-12-01 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 93.00K | $11.66 | 1.08M |
| 2025-12-01 | weinstein joshua ian | Buy | 3.41K | — | — |
| 2025-11-29 | Eskenazi Ilene | Sell | 9.03K | $34.03 | 307.29K |
| 2025-11-25 | weinstein joshua ian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | Bush Matthew R | Buy | 12.62K | $31.69 | 400.02K |
| 2025-09-04 | Bush Matthew R | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-08-25 | Eskenazi Ilene | Sell | 26.58K | $43.15 | 1.15M |
| 2025-08-22 | McConnell Jamie | Sell | 4.64K | $42.91 | 199.06K |
| 2025-08-22 | Theodoredis Roger E | Sell | 30.30K | $42.91 | 1.30M |
| 2025-08-22 | Schalow Laurie | Sell | 30.11K | $42.91 | 1.29M |
| 2025-08-22 | Rymer Adam T | Sell | 8.53K | $42.91 | 365.94K |
| 2025-08-22 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 41.37K | $42.91 | 1.78M |
| 2025-08-22 | Eskenazi Ilene | Sell | 29.55K | $42.91 | 1.27M |
| 2025-08-22 | Brandt Christopher W | Sell | 41.37K | $42.91 | 1.78M |
| 2025-08-22 | Boatwright Scott | Sell | 81.76K | $42.91 | 3.51M |
| 2025-08-11 | Baldocchi Albert S | Sell | 5.34K | — | — |
| 2025-07-25 | Kidd Jason Allan | Buy | 156.36K | $46.76 | 7.31M |
| 2025-07-25 | Kidd Jason Allan | Buy | 16.04K | $46.76 | 750.03K |
| 2025-07-24 | Brandt Christopher W | Buy | 28.55K | — | — |
| 2025-07-24 | Brandt Christopher W | Sell | 28.55K | — | — |
| 2025-07-07 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 15.75K | $56.32 | 887.11K |
| 2025-06-25 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 63.00K | $55.14 | 3.47M |
| 2025-06-12 | Hickenlooper Robin S | Sell | 2.25K | $51.21 | 115.23K |
| 2025-06-12 | FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA | Sell | 2.08K | $51.13 | 106.15K |
| 2025-06-11 | WINSTON MARY A | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Maw Scott Harlan | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Hickenlooper Robin S | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Gutierrez Mauricio | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Fuentes Laura | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Carey Matt | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-11 | Baldocchi Albert S | Buy | 4.15K | $51.79 | 215.03K |
| 2025-06-06 | Boatwright Scott | Sell | 19.00K | $52.48 | 997.13K |
| 2025-06-04 | Garner Curtis E | Buy | 30.00K | $11.65 | 349.65K |
| 2025-06-04 | Garner Curtis E | Sell | 6.70K | $52.20 | 349.64K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.27K. Ownership 89.48%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 129.93M | New | New | 4.42B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 83.82M | New | New | 2.85B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 66.17M | New | New | 2.18B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 60.32M | New | New | 2.05B |
| STATE STREET CORP | 55.67M | New | New | 1.89B |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 45.81M | New | New | 1.56B |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 38.69M | New | New | 1.32B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 36.37M | New | New | 1.23B |
| FMR LLC | 34.29M | New | New | 1.17B |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 30.13M | New | New | 1.02B |
| NORGES BANK | 25.85M | New | New | 878.78M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 21.24M | New | New | 722.26M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 19.77M | New | New | 672.24M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 18.49M | New | New | 628.54M |
| ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. | 16.21M | New | New | 518.75M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 13.23M | New | New | 449.73M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 12.77M | New | New | 434.27M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 12.75M | New | New | 433.61M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 11.28M | New | New | 383.48M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 11.23M | New | New | 381.82M |
| UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC | 10.85M | New | New | 368.75M |
| AMUNDI | 10.75M | New | New | 365.59M |
| CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, LLC | 10.01M | New | New | 340.49M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 9.91M | New | New | 336.83M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 9.64M | New | New | 327.79M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 36 analysts. Average price target $40.92, +31.3% versus the current price. Low $36.00. High $47.00.
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