Ferguson (FERG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
FERG$237.10+6.36 +2.76%
$45.87B
Market Cap
22.04
P/E
18.85
Forward P/E
51
Score
Ferguson (FERG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
FERG price $237.10 +6.36 +2.76%
- Ticker
- FERG
- Price
- $237.10
- Change
- +6.36 +2.76%
- Market cap ?
- $45.87B
- P/E ?
- 22.04
- Forward P/E ?
- 18.85
- Dividend yield ?
- 1.54%
- Beta ?
- 1.12
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Distribution
- Stocklytics score
- 51
- Value
- 47
- Quality
- 50
- Growth
- 56
Stocklytics score rationale: value 47, quality 50, growth 56.
Financials
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19284000000 | 20752000000 | 22010000000 | 19940000000 | 22792000000 | 28566000000 | 29734000000 | 29635000000 | 30762000000 | 8751000000 |
Ferguson plc operates as a major supplier of plumbing, heating, and related industrial products throughout the United States and Canada. The company serves a diverse client base, providing essential solutions for residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial projects. Its extensive product range encompasses core plumbing and heating supplies, such as pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and a…
Fair value
FERG fair value $233.35. Price $237.10. Price is about fair value.
Above fair value, around its usual premium.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 1.26B. Growth 11.78%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 10.47% (beta 1.1). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 193.45M. Net debt 5.97B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | — | 3.30 | — | 8.74B |
| 2026-08-10 | 3.39 | 3.31 | 8.75B | 8.69B |
| 2026-05-05 | 2.28 | 2.16 | 7.47B | 7.41B |
| 2026-02-24 | 3.43 | 3.48 | 8.75B | 8.50B |
| 2025-12-09 | 2.84 | 2.77 | 8.17B | 7.72B |
| 2025-09-16 | 3.48 | 3.01 | 8.50B | 8.40B |
| 2025-06-03 | 2.50 | 2.01 | 7.62B | 7.42B |
| 2025-03-11 | 1.52 | 1.58 | 6.87B | 6.77B |
| 2024-12-10 | 2.45 | 2.62 | 7.77B | 7.81B |
| 2024-09-17 | 2.98 | 2.85 | 7.95B | 8.01B |
| 2024-06-04 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 7.31B | 7.31B |
| 2024-03-06 | 1.74 | 1.84 | 6.67B | 6.72B |
| 2023-12-05 | 2.65 | 2.64 | 7.71B | 7.68B |
| 2023-09-26 | 2.77 | 2.46 | 7.84B | 7.60B |
| 2023-06-06 | 2.20 | 2.18 | 7.14B | 7.59B |
| 2023-03-07 | 1.91 | 2.01 | 6.83B | 7.10B |
| 2022-12-06 | 2.95 | 2.78 | 7.93B | 7.60B |
| 2022-09-27 | 2.85 | 2.91 | 7.97B | 7.81B |
| 2022-06-14 | 2.50 | 2.22 | 7.28B | 6.76B |
| 2022-03-15 | 1.97 | 1.73 | 6.51B | 6.11B |
| 2021-12-07 | 2.51 | 2.14 | 6.80B | — |
| 2021-10-05 | 3.19 | — | 6.57B | — |
| 2021-09-28 | 1.64 | — | 5.92B | — |
| 2021-03-16 | 1.24 | 2.41 | 4.94B | 10.84B |
| 2020-10-31 | 1.48 | — | 5.37B | — |
| 2020-04-30 | 1.14 | — | 5.02B | — |
| 2019-10-31 | 1.01 | — | 4.95B | — |
| 2019-07-31 | 1.04 | — | 3.30B | — |
| 2019-04-30 | 1.12 | — | 5.58B | — |
| 2019-01-31 | 1.16 | — | 5.42B | — |
| 2018-10-31 | 1.16 | — | 5.42B | — |
| 2018-07-31 | 0.87 | — | 5.36B | — |
| 2018-04-30 | 0.87 | — | 5.36B | — |
| 2018-01-31 | 0.92 | — | 5.01B | — |
| 2017-10-31 | 0.92 | — | 5.01B | — |
| 2017-07-31 | 1.36 | — | 4.95B | — |
| 2017-04-30 | 1.36 | — | 4.95B | — |
| 2017-01-31 | 0.83 | — | 4.69B | — |
| 2016-10-31 | 0.83 | — | 4.69B | — |
| 2016-07-31 | 0.58 | — | 3.82B | — |
Dividends
Yield 1.50%. Payout ratio 33.12%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 93/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 33% of earnings. Dividends use a moderate share of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 15 separate years. Yield is 1.5%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | $0.89 | 2026-08-21 | 2026-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2026-05-15 | $0.89 | 2026-05-15 | 2026-07-08 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-06 | $0.89 | 2026-03-06 | 2026-04-30 | Irregular |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.89 | 2026-01-02 | 2026-02-27 | Quarterly |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.83 | 2025-09-26 | 2025-11-07 | Quarterly |
| 2025-06-20 | $0.83 | 2025-06-20 | 2025-08-06 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-21 | $0.83 | 2025-03-21 | 2025-05-06 | Quarterly |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.83 | 2024-12-20 | 2025-02-06 | Quarterly |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.79 | 2024-09-27 | 2024-11-08 | Quarterly |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.79 | 2024-06-14 | 2024-07-31 | Quarterly |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.79 | 2024-03-15 | 2024-05-07 | Quarterly |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.79 | 2023-12-15 | 2024-02-06 | Irregular |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.75 | 2023-10-06 | 2023-11-15 | Quarterly |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.75 | 2023-06-16 | 2023-08-04 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.75 | 2023-03-17 | 2023-05-05 | Irregular |
| 2022-12-15 | $0.75 | 2022-12-16 | 2023-02-03 | Semi-Annual |
| 2022-10-27 | $1.91 | 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-08 | Semi-Annual |
| 2022-03-24 | $0.84 | 2022-03-25 | 2022-05-06 | Semi-Annual |
| 2021-10-28 | $1.67 | 2021-10-29 | 2021-12-10 | Annual |
| 2021-03-25 | $2.53 | 2021-03-26 | 2021-05-11 | Special |
| 2020-11-12 | $2.08 | 2020-11-13 | 2020-12-11 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-10-24 | $1.45 | 2019-10-25 | 2019-11-28 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-04-04 | $0.63 | 2019-04-05 | 2019-04-30 | Semi-Annual |
| 2018-10-25 | $1.32 | 2018-10-26 | 2018-12-05 | Semi-Annual |
| 2018-06-11 | $4.22 | 2018-06-08 | 2018-06-29 | Quarterly |
| 2018-04-05 | $0.61 | 2018-04-06 | 2018-04-27 | Semi-Annual |
| 2017-10-26 | $1.03 | 2017-10-27 | 2017-12-01 | Semi-Annual |
| 2017-04-06 | $0.48 | 2017-04-07 | 2017-04-28 | Semi-Annual |
| 2016-10-27 | $0.86 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2016-03-31 | $0.51 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2015-10-22 | $1.09 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2015-04-02 | $0.53 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2014-10-16 | $1.03 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2014-04-02 | $0.54 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2013-12-02 | $1.96 | 2013-11-29 | 2013-12-16 | Quarterly |
| 2013-10-09 | $0.77 | 2013-10-11 | 2013-12-02 | Semi-Annual |
| 2013-04-03 | $0.36 | 2013-04-05 | 2013-05-01 | Semi-Annual |
| 2012-12-10 | $2.24 | 2012-12-07 | 2012-12-31 | Quarterly |
| 2012-10-10 | $0.73 | 2012-10-12 | 2012-11-30 | Semi-Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 1.10K | $230.00 | 252.31K |
| 2026-10-15 | Winckler Richard | Sell | 70 | $222.94 | 15.61K |
| 2026-10-15 | Thees William T. Jr | Buy | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 290 | $222.94 | 64.65K |
| 2026-10-15 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 353 | $224.50 | 79.25K |
| 2026-10-15 | Stirrup Allison | Buy | 8 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Stirrup Allison | Sell | 146 | $222.94 | 32.55K |
| 2026-10-15 | Stirrup Allison | Sell | 922 | $225.00 | 207.45K |
| 2026-10-15 | Schlicher Jake | Buy | 13 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 258 | $222.94 | 57.52K |
| 2026-10-15 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 314 | $224.50 | 70.49K |
| 2026-10-15 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Paisley James A. | Sell | 281 | $222.94 | 62.65K |
| 2026-10-15 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Buy | 136 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 2.25K | $222.94 | 500.50K |
| 2026-10-15 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 1.78K | $224.50 | 398.71K |
| 2026-10-15 | Graham Ian T. | Buy | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 153 | $222.94 | 34.11K |
| 2026-10-15 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 238 | $224.50 | 53.43K |
| 2026-10-15 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 94 | $222.94 | 20.96K |
| 2026-10-15 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 185 | $224.50 | 41.53K |
| 2026-10-15 | Brundage William | Buy | 41 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Brundage William | Sell | 450 | $222.94 | 100.32K |
| 2026-10-14 | Winckler Richard | Sell | 44 | $222.86 | 9.81K |
| 2026-10-14 | Thees William T. Jr | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 94 | $222.86 | 20.95K |
| 2026-10-14 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 217 | $220.63 | 47.88K |
| 2026-10-14 | Stirrup Allison | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Stirrup Allison | Sell | 119 | $222.86 | 26.52K |
| 2026-10-14 | Schlicher Jake | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 94 | $222.86 | 20.95K |
| 2026-10-14 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 217 | $220.63 | 47.88K |
| 2026-10-14 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Paisley James A. | Sell | 74 | $222.86 | 16.49K |
| 2026-10-14 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Buy | 13 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 866 | $222.86 | 193.00K |
| 2026-10-14 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 685 | $220.63 | 151.13K |
| 2026-10-14 | Graham Ian T. | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 69 | $222.86 | 15.38K |
| 2026-10-14 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 99 | $220.63 | 21.84K |
| 2026-10-14 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 66 | $222.86 | 14.71K |
| 2026-10-14 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 201 | $220.63 | 44.35K |
| 2026-10-14 | Brundage William | Buy | 4 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Brundage William | Sell | 167 | $222.86 | 37.22K |
| 2026-10-12 | Winckler Richard | Buy | 953 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Winckler Richard | Sell | 645 | $220.04 | 141.93K |
| 2026-10-12 | Winckler Richard | Buy | 476 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Winckler Richard | Sell | 476 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Thees William T. Jr | Buy | 4.21K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 2.79K | $220.04 | 614.79K |
| 2026-10-12 | Thees William T. Jr | Buy | 2.10K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 3.51K | $220.00 | 772.20K |
| 2026-10-12 | Thees William T. Jr | Sell | 2.10K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Stirrup Allison | Buy | 853 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Stirrup Allison | Sell | 557 | $220.04 | 122.56K |
| 2026-10-12 | Stirrup Allison | Buy | 425 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Stirrup Allison | Sell | 48 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Schlicher Jake | Buy | 3.76K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 2.50K | $220.04 | 549.88K |
| 2026-10-12 | Schlicher Jake | Buy | 1.88K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 3.14K | $218.74 | 686.41K |
| 2026-10-12 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 1.88K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 4.12K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Paisley James A. | Sell | 2.74K | $220.04 | 602.47K |
| 2026-10-12 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 2.06K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Paisley James A. | Sell | 2.06K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Buy | 17.83K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Buy | 3.61K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Buy | 418 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 14.23K | $220.04 | 3.13M |
| 2026-10-12 | Murphy Kevin Michael | Sell | 11.26K | $216.78 | 2.44M |
| 2026-10-12 | Graham Ian T. | Buy | 4.11K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 2.45K | $220.04 | 539.32K |
| 2026-10-12 | Graham Ian T. | Buy | 2.05K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 1.85K | $218.74 | 405.54K |
| 2026-10-12 | Graham Ian T. | Sell | 2.05K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Buy | 1.72K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 993 | $220.04 | 218.50K |
| 2026-10-12 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Buy | 856 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 1.58K | $218.74 | 345.61K |
| 2026-10-12 | Camposano Robert Anthony Jr. | Sell | 856 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Brundage William | Buy | 8.93K | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Brundage William | Buy | 172 | — | — |
| 2026-10-12 | Brundage William | Sell | 5.92K | $220.04 | 1.30M |
| 2026-10-12 | Brundage William | Sell | 5.99K | $218.74 | 1.31M |
| 2026-10-08 | METCALF JAMES S | Buy | 18 | $213.40 | 3.89K |
| 2026-10-07 | Halligan Catherine Ann | Buy | 6 | $219.51 | 1.21K |
| 2026-10-07 | Baker Kelly A | Buy | 1 | $221.65 | 325 |
| 2026-10-06 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 3 | $225.63 | 643 |
| 2026-10-06 | Halligan Catherine Ann | Buy | 7 | $225.62 | 1.65K |
| 2026-10-06 | Baker Kelly A | Buy | 4 | $225.60 | 901 |
| 2026-10-06 | METCALF JAMES S | Buy | 7 | $225.61 | 1.65K |
| 2026-08-28 | Schlicher Jake | Sell | 5.18K | $230.92 | 1.20M |
| 2026-07-09 | Paisley James A. | Buy | 3 | $224.19 | 641 |
| 2026-07-09 | METCALF JAMES S | Buy | 17 | $222.60 | 3.88K |
| 2026-07-09 | METCALF JAMES S | Buy | 7 | $224.20 | 1.64K |
| 2026-07-09 | Halligan Catherine Ann | Buy | 7 | $224.20 | 1.64K |
| 2026-07-09 | Baker Kelly A | Buy | 4 | $224.20 | 898 |
| 2026-07-08 | Halligan Catherine Ann | Buy | 4 | $221.19 | 828 |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 965, holders +12 vs prior quarter. Ownership 96.21%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 11.49M | -157.68K | -1.35% | 2.73B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 9.14M | -24.46K | -0.27% | 2.17B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 8.75M | -5.45K | -0.06% | 2.08B |
| FMR LLC | 7.56M | -287.38K | -3.66% | 1.79B |
| JUPITER TOPCO LLC | 7.54M | 7.54M | New | 1.79B |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 7.21M | -1.28M | -15.06% | 1.71B |
| BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP | 4.84M | -871.33K | -15.27% | 1.15B |
| STATE STREET CORP | 4.62M | 48.54K | +1.06% | 1.10B |
| WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.18M | -165.82K | -3.81% | 998.01M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 3.84M | -405.10K | -9.54% | 912.15M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 3.82M | 2.79M | +270.89% | 906.55M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 3.43M | -31.58K | -0.91% | 810.77M |
| DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS LP | 2.98M | 787.76K | +35.94% | 707.18M |
| PARNASSUS INVESTMENTS, LLC | 2.83M | 224.27K | +8.60% | 672.46M |
| T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. | 2.45M | -262.25K | -9.68% | 581.01M |
| SOROBAN CAPITAL PARTNERS LP | 2.43M | 30.40K | +1.27% | 576.42M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 2.41M | 533.02K | +28.33% | 572.98M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 2.17M | 324.07K | +17.51% | 518.22M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 2.12M | -129.39K | -5.75% | 503.36M |
| PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDING SA | 2.12M | -751.31K | -26.19% | 502.43M |
| CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS | 2.12M | 21.41K | +1.02% | 502.27M |
| UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC | 2.06M | 16.87K | +0.83% | 487.80M |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 2.01M | -25.68K | -1.26% | 477.77M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | 2.00M | 1.19M | +145.66% | 474.99M |
| W1M ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD | 1.98M | 116.42K | +6.25% | 469.95M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 24 analysts. Average price target $282.90, +19.3% versus the current price. Low $252.00. High $325.00.
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