FirstService (FSV) Stock Forecast & Price Target
FSV$141.37+2.40 +1.73%
$6.46B
Market Cap
42.89
P/E
23.02
Forward P/E
—
Score
FirstService (FSV) Stock Forecast & Price Target
FSV price $141.37 +2.40 +1.73%
- Ticker
- FSV
- Price
- $141.37
- Change
- +2.40 +1.73%
- Market cap ?
- $6.46B
- P/E ?
- 42.89
- Forward P/E ?
- 23.02
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.86%
- Beta ?
- 0.91
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Real Estate - Services
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1482889000 | 1705456000 | 1931473000 | 2407410000 | 2772415000 | 3249072000 | 3745835000 | 4334548000 | 5216894000 | 5518764248 |
FirstService Corporation (FSV) is a North American enterprise, operating across the United States and Canada, specializing in both residential property management and a comprehensive array of essential property services for both homes and businesses. The company is organized into two primary divisions: FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. The FirstService Residential segment is dedicated to managing…
Fair value
FSV fair value $143.24. Price $141.37. Price is about fair value.
Above fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 81% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 301.50M. Growth 5.23%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 9.32% (beta 0.9). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 45.72M. Net debt 1.44B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-03 | — | 1.58 | — | 1.47B |
| 2026-10-22 | 1.89 | 1.84 | 1.51B | 1.48B |
| 2026-07-23 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.44B | 1.44B |
| 2026-04-23 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.30B | 1.29B |
| 2026-02-04 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.38B | 1.37B |
| 2025-10-23 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.45B | 1.36B |
| 2025-07-24 | 1.71 | 1.45 | 1.44B | 1.47B |
| 2025-04-24 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 1.25B | 1.28B |
| 2025-02-05 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.37B | 1.30B |
| 2024-10-24 | 1.63 | 1.42 | 1.41B | 1.30B |
| 2024-07-25 | 1.36 | 1.26 | 1.30B | 1.28B |
| 2024-04-24 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 1.15B | 1.13B |
| 2024-02-06 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.11B | 1.07B |
| 2023-10-26 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.12B | 1.08B |
| 2023-07-27 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.12B | 1.09B |
| 2023-04-26 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 1.02B | 969.47M |
| 2023-02-07 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.02B | 977.78M |
| 2022-10-26 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 960.46M | 886.94M |
| 2022-07-27 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 930.71M | 907.31M |
| 2022-04-27 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 834.57M | 813.10M |
| 2022-02-15 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 856.95M | 827.74M |
| 2021-10-26 | 1.50 | 1.18 | 849.43M | 401.83M |
| 2021-07-27 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 831.63M | 401.83M |
| 2021-04-27 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 711.07M | 401.83M |
| 2021-02-09 | 1.02 | 0.83 | 775.05M | 574.11M |
| 2020-10-28 | 1.19 | 0.77 | 741.93M | 567.36M |
| 2020-07-23 | 0.86 | 0.31 | 621.60M | 498.96M |
| 2020-04-23 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 633.83M | 531.05M |
| 2020-02-05 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 675.59M | 716.54M |
| 2019-10-23 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 672.25M | 752.63M |
| 2019-07-24 | 1.12 | 0.93 | 573.91M | 471.42M |
| 2019-04-24 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 485.65M | 534.22M |
| 2019-02-06 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 503.31M | 527.67M |
| 2018-10-24 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 506.36M | 517.78M |
| 2018-07-25 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 495.35M | 466.50M |
| 2018-04-25 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 426.46M | 426.50M |
| 2018-02-07 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 438.11M | 408.81M |
| 2017-10-25 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 456.52M | 457.14M |
| 2017-07-26 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 434.86M | 441.70M |
| 2017-04-26 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 375.97M | 348.95M |
Dividends
Yield 0.84%. Payout ratio 35.95%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 86/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 36% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 12 separate years. Yield is 0.8%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $0.30 | 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2026-06-30 | $0.30 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.30 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.28 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-07 | Quarterly |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.28 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.28 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-08 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.28 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.25 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-01-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.25 | 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.25 | 2024-06-28 | 2024-07-05 | Quarterly |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.25 | 2024-03-29 | 2024-04-05 | Quarterly |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.23 | 2023-12-29 | 2024-01-05 | Quarterly |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.23 | 2023-09-29 | 2023-10-06 | Quarterly |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.23 | 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-30 | $0.23 | 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-11 | Quarterly |
| 2022-12-29 | $0.20 | 2022-12-30 | 2023-01-06 | Quarterly |
| 2022-09-28 | $0.20 | 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2022-06-29 | $0.20 | 2022-06-30 | 2022-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-30 | $0.20 | 2022-03-31 | 2022-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2021-12-30 | $0.18 | 2021-12-31 | 2022-01-07 | Quarterly |
| 2021-09-28 | $0.18 | 2021-09-30 | 2021-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2021-06-29 | $0.18 | 2021-06-30 | 2021-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-30 | $0.18 | 2021-03-31 | 2021-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2020-12-30 | $0.17 | 2020-12-31 | 2021-01-07 | Quarterly |
| 2020-09-29 | $0.17 | 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2020-06-29 | $0.17 | 2020-06-30 | 2020-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2020-03-30 | $0.17 | 2020-03-31 | 2020-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2019-12-30 | $0.15 | 2019-12-31 | 2020-01-08 | Quarterly |
| 2019-09-27 | $0.15 | 2019-09-30 | 2019-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2019-06-27 | $0.15 | 2019-06-28 | 2019-07-05 | Quarterly |
| 2019-03-28 | $0.15 | 2019-03-29 | 2019-04-05 | Quarterly |
| 2018-12-28 | $0.14 | 2018-12-31 | 2019-01-08 | Quarterly |
| 2018-09-27 | $0.14 | 2018-09-28 | 2018-10-05 | Quarterly |
| 2018-06-28 | $0.14 | 2018-06-29 | 2018-07-06 | Quarterly |
| 2018-03-28 | $0.14 | 2018-03-29 | 2018-04-06 | Quarterly |
| 2017-12-28 | $0.12 | 2017-12-29 | 2018-01-05 | Quarterly |
| 2017-09-28 | $0.12 | 2017-09-29 | 2017-10-06 | Quarterly |
| 2017-06-28 | $0.12 | 2017-06-30 | 2017-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2017-03-29 | $0.12 | 2017-03-31 | 2017-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2016-12-28 | $0.11 | 2016-12-30 | 2017-01-09 | Quarterly |
| 2016-09-28 | $0.11 | 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2016-06-28 | $0.11 | 2016-06-30 | 2016-07-07 | Quarterly |
| 2016-03-29 | $0.11 | 2016-03-31 | 2016-04-07 | Quarterly |
| 2015-12-29 | $0.10 | 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-07 | Quarterly |
| 2015-09-28 | $0.10 | 2015-09-30 | 2015-10-07 | Quarterly |
| 2015-06-26 | $0.08 | 2015-06-30 | 2015-07-07 | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 283, holders -20 vs prior quarter. Ownership 69.89%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORBIS ALLAN GRAY LTD | 4.04M | 76.06K | +1.92% | 574.73M |
| MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE | 2.06M | 148.79K | +7.78% | 292.66M |
| 1832 ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | 1.68M | 1.27M | +302.94% | 239.38M |
| JUPITER TOPCO LLC | 1.68M | 1.68M | New | 238.81M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.22M | 20.21K | +1.69% | 173.00M |
| CONESTOGA CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC | 1.22M | -188.57K | -13.42% | 172.95M |
| NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC | 1.18M | -21.45K | -1.79% | 167.32M |
| MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP | 756.20K | -715.09K | -48.60% | 152.50M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 873.03K | 261.47K | +42.76% | 124.07M |
| CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 861.42K | 139.55K | +19.33% | 122.44M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 652.32K | 60.61K | +10.24% | 100.89M |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 643.34K | 69.92K | +12.19% | 91.42M |
| NORGES BANK | 549.66K | 549.66K | New | 78.08M |
| TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 522.48K | 46.21K | +9.70% | 74.27M |
| BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ | 521.64K | 44.19K | +9.26% | 74.10M |
| BCV ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. | 506.53K | 2.42K | +0.48% | 71.95M |
| ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP | 466.43K | 9.79K | +2.14% | 66.28M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | 430.84K | -59.60K | -12.15% | 61.23M |
| GENEVA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 415.69K | -111.88K | -21.21% | 59.07M |
| CIBC WORLD MARKET INC. | 399.27K | -60.02K | -13.07% | 56.72M |
| BROWN ADVISORY INC | 386.88K | -12.30K | -3.08% | 54.98M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 366.84K | 6.33K | +1.76% | 52.16M |
| COPELAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 348.42K | -20.13K | -5.46% | 49.51M |
| CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, LLC | 344.70K | 54.84K | +18.92% | 48.98M |
| VANGUARD GLOBAL ADVISERS, LLC | 333.87K | 12.80K | +3.99% | 47.47M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 10 analysts. Average price target $170.86, +20.9% versus the current price. Low $140.00. High $195.00.
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