Alphabet (GOOGL) Fair Value & DCF

GOOGL$291.88—
Internet Content & InformationGrowth StockHigh Quality
Compare
Market cap—Enterprise value$3.64TRevenue (TTM)$471.10BMarket position—

Score

66
Bullish
Value
42
Quality
71
Growth
86

GOOGL fair value $289.92. Price $291.88. Price is about fair value.

Worked example

Cash-flow value. Starting free cash flow is $11.79 a share. Year 1 is the first earnings forecast, so it has no growth rate of its own. The forecast then reaches 13.47%, and that pace fades in a straight line to 3% terminal growth by year 10. The discount rate is 11.04% (beta 1.23). It is beta-adjusted and capped at 12%. The cash-flow value is $265.42 a share.

Earnings value. Next-twelve-months earnings per share of $13.89 times 22.64 is $314.42. The peer group is Communication Services, 25 companies worth at least $10 billion. Peer median 19.1. Own 10-year median 26.2. The multiple used is the average of the two, kept between 8 and 30, which is 22.64.

Fair value is the average of the two, $289.92. The price is $291.88, which is 0.7% above fair value.

Alphabet (GOOGL) Fair Value & DCF

GOOGL price $291.88 —

Ticker
GOOGL
Price
$291.88
Change
—
Forward P/E
20.17
Dividend yield
0.30%
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Internet Content & Information
Stocklytics score
66
Value
42
Quality
71
Growth
86

Stocklytics score rationale: value 42, quality 71, growth 86.

Fair value

GOOGL fair value $289.92. Price $291.88. Price is about fair value.

Around fair value, but more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 78% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price.

Fair value blends a 10-year DCF and an earnings multiple: the average of the DCF value and an earnings value from next-twelve-months EPS times 22.6, a blend of the Communication Services median (19.1) and the stock's own 10-year median (26.2). How we calculate it →

Free cash flow adds back growth capex above depreciation.

Compare GOOGL

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-02-03—3.14—142.52B
2026-10-282.123.02127.58B128.00B
2026-07-229.112.87119.80B116.53B
2026-04-295.112.64109.90B106.98B
2026-02-042.822.57113.83B111.33B
2025-10-292.872.30102.35B99.93B
2025-07-232.312.1596.43B99.83B
2025-04-242.812.0290.23B89.15B
2025-02-042.152.1296.47B96.67B
2024-10-292.121.8588.27B86.30B
2024-07-231.891.8484.74B84.19B
2024-04-251.891.5180.54B78.61B
2024-01-301.641.5986.31B85.31B
2023-10-241.551.4576.69B75.94B
2023-07-251.441.3474.60B72.80B
2023-04-251.171.0769.79B68.90B
2023-02-021.051.1876.05B76.18B
2022-10-251.061.2569.09B70.98B
2022-07-261.211.2869.69B69.80B
2022-04-261.231.3068.01B68.06B
2022-02-011.531.3775.33B72.27B
2021-10-261.401.1765.12B63.26B
2021-07-271.360.9761.88B63.24B
2021-04-271.310.7955.31B46.30B
2021-02-021.120.8056.90B53.07B
2020-10-290.820.5646.17B31.79B
2020-07-300.510.4138.30B31.04B
2020-04-280.490.5241.16B43.08B
2020-02-030.770.6346.08B37.61B
2019-10-280.540.6240.50B49.70B
2019-07-250.710.5638.94B30.97B
2019-04-290.600.5336.34B40.58B
2019-02-040.640.5439.28B33.28B
2018-10-250.650.5233.74B26.92B
2018-07-230.590.4732.66B68.98B
2018-04-230.500.4631.15B21.68B
2018-02-010.480.5132.32B33.26B
2017-10-260.480.4227.77B24.17B
2017-07-240.250.2226.01B23.31B
2017-04-270.390.3724.75B23.66B

Dividends

Yield 0.29%. Payout ratio 4.54%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 78/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 5% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 3 separate years. Yield is 0.3%, which is low.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-12-07$0.222026-12-072026-12-14Quarterly
2026-09-04$0.222026-09-072026-09-14Quarterly
2026-06-08$0.222026-06-082026-06-15Quarterly
2026-03-09$0.212026-03-092026-03-16Quarterly
2025-12-08$0.212025-12-082025-12-15Quarterly
2025-09-08$0.212025-09-082025-09-15Quarterly
2025-06-09$0.212025-06-092025-06-16Quarterly
2025-03-10$0.202025-03-102025-03-17Quarterly
2024-12-09$0.202024-12-092024-12-16Quarterly
2024-09-09$0.202024-09-092024-09-16Quarterly
2024-06-10$0.202024-06-102024-06-17Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-29ARNOLD FRANCESSell82$284.0023.29K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaBuy489——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell69$317.2821.89K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell69$317.2821.89K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell101——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell102$317.2832.36K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell27$317.288.57K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell27$317.288.57K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell121——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell20$317.286.35K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell122$317.2838.71K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell106——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell26——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell27$317.288.57K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell107$317.2833.95K
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell19——
2026-10-25Saraci MarsidaSell20$339.016.78K
2026-10-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell1.63K——
2026-10-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell1.64K$317.28520.66K
2026-10-25WALKER JOHN KENTBuy1.63K——
2026-10-25Schindler PhilippBuy2.00K——
2026-10-25Schindler PhilippSell2.00K——
2026-10-25Schindler PhilippSell2.02K$317.28639.64K
2026-10-25Porat RuthBuy1.63K——
2026-10-25Porat RuthSell1.63K——
2026-10-25Porat RuthSell1.64K$317.28520.66K
2026-10-25Ashkenazi AnatBuy1.77K——
2026-10-25Ashkenazi AnatSell1.77K——
2026-10-25Ashkenazi AnatSell1.78K$317.28565.39K
2026-10-25Pichai SundarBuy3.67K——
2026-10-25Pichai SundarSell3.67K——
2026-10-25Pichai SundarSell3.71K$317.281.18M
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamBuy86.55K——
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamBuy86.55K——
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamBuy86.55K——
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamBuy86.55K——
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamSell197.60K——
2026-10-13Shriram Kavitark RamSell197.60K——
2026-09-30ARNOLD FRANCESSell83$340.4528.26K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell19——
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell1.63K——
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell1.64K$339.01556.32K
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell4.26K——
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell4.30K$339.011.46M
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTBuy10.63K——
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell4.75K——
2026-09-25WALKER JOHN KENTSell4.79K$339.011.62M
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaBuy487——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell69——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell69$339.0123.39K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell101——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell102$339.0134.58K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell27——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell27$339.019.15K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell121——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell122$339.0141.36K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell105——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell19——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell19$339.016.44K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell106$339.0135.94K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell26——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell27$339.019.15K
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell19——
2026-09-25Saraci MarsidaSell20$339.016.78K
2026-09-25Porat RuthBuy10.63K——
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell1.63K——
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell1.64K$339.01556.32K
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell4.26K——
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell4.30K$339.011.46M
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell4.75K——
2026-09-25Porat RuthSell4.79K$339.011.62M
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatBuy10.15K——
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell1.76K——
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell1.78K$339.01603.78K
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell4.26K——
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell4.30K$339.011.46M
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell4.13K——
2026-09-25Ashkenazi AnatSell4.17K$339.011.41M
2026-09-25Pichai SundarBuy3.67K——
2026-09-25Pichai SundarSell3.67K——
2026-09-25Pichai SundarSell3.71K$339.011.26M
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippBuy13.44K——
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell2.00K——
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell2.02K$339.01683.44K
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell5.38K——
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell5.43K$339.011.84M
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell6.07K——
2026-09-25Schindler PhilippSell6.12K$339.012.08M
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESBuy1——
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESBuy11——
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESBuy1——
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESBuy0——
2026-09-14Washington Robin LBuy1——
2026-09-14Washington Robin LBuy1——
2026-09-14Washington Robin LBuy1——
2026-09-14Washington Robin LBuy0——
2026-09-14Shriram Kavitark RamBuy1——
2026-09-14Shriram Kavitark RamBuy1——
2026-09-14Shriram Kavitark RamBuy1——
2026-09-14Shriram Kavitark RamBuy0——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 6.06K, holders +175 vs prior quarter. Ownership 39.22%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.460.97M13.99M+3.13%164.74B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC382.95M4.69M+1.24%136.86B
FMR LLC250.71M14.17M+5.99%89.60B
STATE STREET CORP238.98M12.72M+5.62%85.40B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC150.08M-1.81M-1.19%53.47B
MORGAN STANLEY120.51M-444.30K-0.37%43.07B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/101.32M20.81M+25.85%36.21B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC98.90M2.36M+2.44%35.34B
INVESCO LTD.91.28M47.02M+106.23%32.62B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO91.92M20.99M+29.60%32.51B
NORGES BANK80.93M80.93MNew28.92B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC78.79M24.54M+45.24%28.16B
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS73.35M8.00M+12.25%26.21B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/72.42M3.65M+5.31%25.88B
NORTHERN TRUST CORP65.52M533.28K+0.82%23.42B
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS62.53M4.98M+8.65%22.35B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC58.58M738.14K+1.28%20.94B
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC44.69M-507.72K-1.12%15.97B
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP44.40M-3.22M-6.76%15.87B
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.40.98M40.98MNew14.65B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC40.98M61.59K+0.15%14.65B
FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC39.99M939.28K+2.41%14.29B
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP39.22M-897.11K-2.24%14.01B
LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC37.21M-546.63K-1.45%13.30B
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA36.62M1.34M+3.81%13.09B

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