Fractyl Health (GUTS) Stock Insights
$11.65M
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score
GUTS price $0.88 -0.00 -0.18%
GUTS fair value $70.15. Price $0.88. Price is 99% below fair value.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 12.03K. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 2.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 13.26M. Net debt -19.89M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | — | -1.59 | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | -1.92 | -1.62 | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.13 | -0.17 | — | — |
| 2026-03-24 | -2.04 | -2.28 | — | — |
| 2025-11-12 | -0.71 | -4.08 | — | — |
| 2025-08-13 | -4.20 | -4.44 | — | — |
| 2025-05-12 | -0.47 | -5.40 | — | — |
| 2025-04-07 | -0.52 | -5.28 | 3.00K | 10.00K |
| 2024-11-13 | -5.76 | -6.00 | 14.00K | 10.00K |
| 2024-08-12 | -4.32 | -5.52 | 43.00K | — |
| 2024-07-01 | -2.04 | -3.60 | 33.00K | — |
| 2024-04-01 | -1.34 | -0.08 | 7.00K | — |
| 2023-12-14 | -7.44 | — | 36.00K | — |
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | BRADLEY WILLIAM | Buy | 64.52K | $0.62 | 39.90K |
| 2026-06-12 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 23.00K | $0.85 | 19.60K |
| 2026-06-10 | BRADLEY WILLIAM | Buy | 68.49K | $0.73 | 50.33K |
| 2026-06-10 | BRADLEY WILLIAM | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Conaway Samuel | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Thompson Christopher Charles | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Elia Marc | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Barnes Kelly Ann | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | MEANWELL CLIVE | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Sheffield Ian | Buy | 35.00K | $0.73 | 25.53K |
| 2026-06-10 | Sheffield Ian | Buy | 22.50K | $0.73 | 16.47K |
| 2026-06-10 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 25.00K | $0.73 | 18.25K |
| 2026-06-08 | Smith Weber Lara | Buy | 20.00K | $0.69 | 13.71K |
| 2026-01-12 | Smith Weber Lara | Buy | 1.04M | $2.00 | 2.07M |
| 2026-01-12 | Smith Weber Lara | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-12-15 | Toomey Sarah | Buy | 743.91K | $2.24 | 1.67M |
| 2025-12-15 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 845.23K | $2.24 | 1.89M |
| 2025-12-15 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 2.49M | $2.24 | 5.57M |
| 2025-12-04 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 10.42K | $1.92 | 20.00K |
| 2025-09-02 | Thompson Christopher Charles | Buy | 45.00K | $0.98 | 43.95K |
| 2025-09-02 | Thompson Christopher Charles | Other | 20.97K | $2.67 | 55.99K |
| 2025-09-02 | Sheffield Ian | Buy | 45.00K | $0.98 | 43.95K |
| 2025-09-02 | Sheffield Ian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-06-11 | SCHULMAN AMY W | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | Elia Marc | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | MEANWELL CLIVE | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | BRADLEY WILLIAM | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | Barnes Kelly Ann | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-06-11 | Conaway Samuel | Buy | 22.50K | $2.27 | 51.08K |
| 2025-03-14 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 17.90K | $1.28 | 22.98K |
| 2025-03-14 | Barnes Kelly Ann | Buy | 31.00K | $1.30 | 40.21K |
| 2025-03-13 | Conaway Samuel | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-03-13 | SCHULMAN AMY W | Buy | 8.55K | $1.17 | 9.96K |
| 2025-03-13 | BRADLEY WILLIAM | Buy | 16.13K | $1.26 | 20.36K |
| 2025-03-13 | Conaway Samuel | Buy | 8.55K | $1.17 | 9.96K |
| 2025-02-27 | Kieffer Timothy | Buy | 169.70K | $1.46 | 247.76K |
| 2025-02-27 | Kieffer Timothy | Buy | 35.28K | $15.00 | 529.20K |
| 2025-02-27 | Toomey Sarah | Buy | 166.20K | $1.46 | 242.65K |
| 2025-02-27 | Toomey Sarah | Buy | 79.38K | $15.00 | 1.19M |
| 2025-02-27 | Davidson Lisa | Buy | 174.70K | $1.46 | 255.06K |
| 2025-02-27 | Davidson Lisa | Buy | 91.50K | $15.00 | 1.37M |
| 2025-02-27 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 179.70K | $1.46 | 262.36K |
| 2025-02-27 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 104.40K | $15.00 | 1.57M |
| 2025-02-27 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 571.49K | $1.46 | 834.38K |
| 2025-02-27 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 261.54K | $15.00 | 3.92M |
| 2025-01-31 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 90.97K | $1.70 | 154.65K |
| 2025-01-31 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 90.97K | $1.82 | 165.21K |
| 2025-01-31 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 90.97K | $1.70 | 154.65K |
| 2025-01-31 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 22.35K | $1.70 | 37.99K |
| 2025-01-31 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 22.35K | $1.81 | 40.46K |
| 2025-01-31 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 22.35K | $1.70 | 37.99K |
| 2025-01-30 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 20.95K | $1.70 | 35.61K |
| 2025-01-30 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 20.95K | $1.95 | 40.80K |
| 2025-01-30 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 20.95K | $1.70 | 35.61K |
| 2025-01-30 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 21.47K | $1.70 | 36.50K |
| 2025-01-30 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 21.47K | $1.95 | 41.80K |
| 2025-01-30 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 21.47K | $1.70 | 36.50K |
| 2024-11-11 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 96.52K | $2.47 | 238.36K |
| 2024-11-11 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 64.20K | $2.47 | 158.54K |
| 2024-11-10 | Rajagopalan Harith | Buy | 216.92K | — | — |
| 2024-11-10 | Rajagopalan Harith | Sell | 216.92K | — | — |
| 2024-11-10 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 187.26K | — | — |
| 2024-11-10 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 187.26K | — | — |
| 2024-09-12 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 95.48K | $1.70 | 162.32K |
| 2024-09-12 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 65.00K | $2.90 | 188.47K |
| 2024-09-12 | Caplan Jay David | Sell | 95.48K | $1.70 | 162.32K |
| 2024-04-01 | Kimber Adrian | Buy | 250.00K | $7.45 | 1.86M |
| 2024-04-01 | Kimber Adrian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Buy | 4.77M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 3.16M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 909.00K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 2.24M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 352.16K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 1.63M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Bessemer Venture Partners VII L.P. | Sell | 1.95M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Buy | 673.39K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Buy | 283.88K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Buy | 199.26K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Buy | 182.74K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Sell | 346.87K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. | Sell | 80.74K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Corebridge DECO II, LLC | Buy | 673.39K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Corebridge DECO II, LLC | Sell | 1.17M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Corebridge DECO II, LLC | Sell | 272.86K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN HOME ASSURANCE CO | Buy | 283.88K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN HOME ASSURANCE CO | Sell | 494.17K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | AMERICAN HOME ASSURANCE CO | Sell | 115.03K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | MEANWELL CLIVE | Buy | 277.89K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | MEANWELL CLIVE | Sell | 596.35K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 5.16M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 333.33K | $15.00 | 5.00M |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Buy | 918.57K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Sell | 545.45K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Sell | 373.02K | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Sell | 1.60M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Sell | 6.50M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Royan Ajay | Sell | 4.03M | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | Caplan Jay David | Buy | 23.30K | — | — |
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 76, holders -7 vs prior quarter. Ownership 44.65%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NANTAHALA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 11.29M | -2.08M | -15.53% | 8.97M |
| CATALIO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | 6.17M | 676.88K | +12.33% | 4.90M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 6.10M | 563.92K | +10.19% | 4.84M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 6.03M | 5.91M | +4727.74% | 4.79M |
| PALE FIRE CAPITAL SE | 5.00M | -917.81K | -15.50% | 3.97M |
| GENERAL CATALYST GROUP MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.88M | -7 | -0.00% | 3.88M |
| DEER MANAGEMENT CO. LLC | 4.77M | 0 | 0.00% | 3.79M |
| MAVERICK CAPITAL LTD | 3.97M | 0 | 0.00% | 3.16M |
| M28 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP | 1.86M | 0 | 0.00% | 1.47M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 1.80M | -338.78K | -15.83% | 1.43M |
| WOODLINE PARTNERS LP | 1.78M | -458.09K | -20.43% | 1.42M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 1.73M | 1.69M | +4260.78% | 1.38M |
| SILVERARC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.64M | -63.65K | -3.74% | 1.30M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 1.58M | -42.27K | -2.61% | 1.25M |
| CM MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.40M | 0 | 0.00% | 1.11M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.32M | -118.92K | -8.29% | 1.05M |
| IKARIAN CAPITAL, LLC | 1.10M | 0 | 0.00% | 873.84K |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | 1.08M | 272.87K | +33.78% | 853.73K |
| LOGOS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT LP | 1.00M | 0 | 0.00% | 794.40K |
| BREVAN HOWARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP | 916.32K | 683.95K | +294.34% | 719.27K |
| 683 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 756.72K | -5.97M | -88.75% | 601.13K |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 722.13K | 115.95K | +19.13% | 573.37K |
| STATE STREET CORP | 516.00K | 51.30K | +11.04% | 409.91K |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 426.50K | -69.40K | -13.99% | 338.81K |
| MINK BROOK ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 352.75K | 352.75K | New | 280.22K |
Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn
$11.65M
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score