Herc (HRI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
HRI$165.75+9.69 +6.21%
$5.54B
Market Cap
34.55
P/E
23.35
Forward P/E
50
Score
Herc (HRI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
HRI price $165.75 +9.69 +6.21%
- Ticker
- HRI
- Price
- $165.75
- Change
- +9.69 +6.21%
- Market cap ?
- $5.54B
- P/E ?
- 34.55
- Forward P/E ?
- 23.35
- Dividend yield ?
- 2.20%
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Stocklytics score
- 50
- Value
- 58
- Quality
- 25
- Growth
- 67
Stocklytics score rationale: value 58, quality 25, growth 67.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1554800000 | 1754500000 | 1976700000 | 1999000000 | 1781300000 | 2073000000 | 2740000000 | 3282000000 | 3568000000 | 4376000000 |
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company offers ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration…
Fair value
HRI fair value $97.05. Price $165.75. Price is 71% above fair value.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 553.73M. Growth 14.67%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 2.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 33.43M. Net debt 11.11B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-16 | — | 2.80 | — | 1.33B |
| 2026-10-27 | 3.91 | 2.92 | 1.36B | 1.35B |
| 2026-07-28 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 1.20B | 1.16B |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.21 | -0.21 | 1.14B | 1.06B |
| 2026-02-17 | 2.07 | 1.87 | 1.21B | 1.25B |
| 2025-10-28 | 2.22 | 1.83 | 1.30B | 1.25B |
| 2025-07-29 | 1.87 | 1.29 | 1.00B | 1.28B |
| 2025-04-22 | 1.30 | 2.21 | 861.00M | 851.30M |
| 2025-02-13 | 3.58 | 3.98 | 757.00M | 820.00M |
| 2024-10-22 | 4.35 | 4.48 | 965.00M | 929.35M |
| 2024-07-23 | 2.60 | 2.91 | 848.00M | 832.02M |
| 2024-04-23 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 804.00M | 782.85M |
| 2024-02-13 | 3.24 | 3.47 | 832.00M | 860.34M |
| 2023-10-23 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 908.00M | 896.77M |
| 2023-07-25 | 2.69 | 3.13 | 802.00M | 814.65M |
| 2023-04-20 | 2.35 | 2.14 | 740.00M | 732.80M |
| 2023-02-14 | 3.44 | 3.56 | 786.00M | 773.27M |
| 2022-10-20 | 3.42 | 3.53 | 745.00M | 725.41M |
| 2022-07-21 | 2.47 | 2.62 | 640.00M | 630.07M |
| 2022-04-21 | 1.95 | 1.96 | 568.00M | 552.77M |
| 2022-02-10 | 2.46 | 2.42 | 578.00M | 582.74M |
| 2021-10-21 | 2.38 | 2.37 | 550.40M | 542.86M |
| 2021-07-22 | 1.57 | 1.24 | 490.90M | 530.67M |
| 2021-04-22 | 1.10 | 0.25 | 453.80M | 415.60M |
| 2021-02-18 | 1.35 | 1.03 | 520.40M | 358.72M |
| 2020-10-22 | 1.35 | 0.85 | 456.70M | 253.30M |
| 2020-07-23 | 0.25 | -0.82 | 368.00M | 897.92M |
| 2020-04-23 | 0.04 | -0.27 | 436.20M | 2.29B |
| 2020-02-27 | 1.20 | 1.72 | 540.10M | 774.14M |
| 2019-10-23 | 1.48 | 1.86 | 508.10M | 2.59B |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 475.10M | 561.48M |
| 2019-05-02 | -0.23 | -0.28 | 475.70M | 455.02M |
| 2019-02-28 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 543.70M | 543.70M |
| 2018-11-08 | 1.60 | 0.90 | 516.20M | 425.86M |
| 2018-08-08 | -0.01 | 0.08 | 485.50M | 485.50M |
| 2018-05-09 | -0.36 | -0.68 | 431.30M | 826.66M |
| 2018-02-28 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 491.70M | 570.37M |
| 2017-11-08 | 0.45 | 0.15 | 457.60M | 152.53M |
| 2017-08-08 | 0.06 | -0.19 | 415.80M | 93.34M |
| 2017-05-09 | -1.10 | -0.32 | 389.40M | 126.06M |
Dividends
Yield 1.69%. Payout ratio 76.42%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 75/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 76% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 6 separate years. Yield is 1.7%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | $0.70 | 2026-09-02 | 2026-09-16 | Quarterly |
| 2026-05-29 | $0.70 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-12 | Quarterly |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.70 | 2026-02-18 | 2026-03-04 | Quarterly |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.70 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-26 | Quarterly |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.70 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-09-05 | Quarterly |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.70 | 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-13 | Quarterly |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.70 | 2025-02-18 | 2025-03-04 | Quarterly |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.67 | 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-27 | Quarterly |
| 2024-08-23 | $0.67 | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-06 | Quarterly |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.67 | 2024-05-31 | 2024-06-14 | Quarterly |
| 2024-02-20 | $0.67 | 2024-02-21 | 2024-03-07 | Quarterly |
| 2023-12-08 | $0.63 | 2023-12-11 | 2023-12-26 | Quarterly |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.63 | 2023-08-18 | 2023-09-01 | Quarterly |
| 2023-05-25 | $0.63 | 2023-05-26 | 2023-06-09 | Quarterly |
| 2023-02-21 | $0.63 | 2023-02-22 | 2023-03-09 | Quarterly |
| 2022-12-09 | $0.57 | 2022-12-12 | 2022-12-27 | Quarterly |
| 2022-08-18 | $0.57 | 2022-08-19 | 2022-09-02 | Quarterly |
| 2022-05-26 | $0.57 | 2022-05-27 | 2022-06-10 | Quarterly |
| 2022-02-22 | $0.57 | 2022-02-23 | 2022-03-10 | Quarterly |
| 2021-10-19 | $0.50 | 2021-10-20 | 2021-11-04 | Irregular |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Olsson Erik | Buy | 3.08K | $163.00 | 502.86K |
| 2026-08-18 | Peres Tamir | Buy | 2.26K | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 822 | $166.82 | 137.13K |
| 2026-08-18 | Olsson Erik | Buy | 639 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | Olsson Erik | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | Shannon Patrick S | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | SACHDEV RAKESH | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | Olin John A | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | Kelly Michael A | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | HOLLEY JEAN K | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | BURGESS SHARI L | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | CAMPBELL PATRICK D | Buy | 1.03K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | CAMPBELL PATRICK D | Buy | 1.07K | $140.22 | 150.04K |
| 2026-03-13 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 30 | $108.91 | 3.27K |
| 2026-03-13 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 114 | $108.91 | 12.42K |
| 2026-02-27 | Olin John A | Buy | 3.00K | $142.47 | 427.41K |
| 2026-02-07 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 38 | $180.31 | 6.85K |
| 2026-02-07 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 169 | $180.31 | 30.47K |
| 2026-02-07 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 215 | $180.31 | 38.77K |
| 2026-02-07 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 107 | $180.31 | 19.29K |
| 2026-02-07 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 201 | $180.31 | 36.24K |
| 2026-02-07 | Birnbaum Aaron | Sell | 316 | $180.31 | 56.98K |
| 2026-02-07 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Sell | 1.03K | $180.31 | 186.62K |
| 2026-02-06 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 76 | $180.31 | 13.70K |
| 2026-02-06 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 236 | $180.31 | 42.55K |
| 2026-02-06 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 253 | $180.31 | 45.62K |
| 2026-02-06 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 236 | $180.31 | 42.55K |
| 2026-02-06 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 237 | $180.31 | 42.73K |
| 2026-02-06 | Birnbaum Aaron | Sell | 395 | $180.31 | 71.22K |
| 2026-02-06 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Sell | 1.33K | $180.31 | 239.63K |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Buy | 347 | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 174 | $154.03 | 26.80K |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 145 | $154.03 | 22.33K |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Buy | 417 | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 72 | $154.03 | 11.09K |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Buy | 642 | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Buy | 1.83K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 705 | $154.03 | 108.59K |
| 2026-02-03 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 219 | $154.03 | 33.73K |
| 2026-02-03 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Buy | 2.07K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Buy | 4.22K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Peres Tamir | Buy | 2.33K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 887 | $154.03 | 136.62K |
| 2026-02-03 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 258 | $154.03 | 39.74K |
| 2026-02-03 | Peres Tamir | Buy | 2.31K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Peres Tamir | Buy | 4.22K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Buy | 1.30K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 460 | $154.03 | 70.85K |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 472 | $154.03 | 72.70K |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 258 | $154.03 | 39.74K |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Buy | 1.17K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Buy | 2.22K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Humphrey Mark | Buy | 4.71K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Cunningham Christian J | Buy | 2.33K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 887 | $154.03 | 136.62K |
| 2026-02-03 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 242 | $154.03 | 37.28K |
| 2026-02-03 | Cunningham Christian J | Buy | 4.22K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Cunningham Christian J | Buy | 2.31K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Birnbaum Aaron | Buy | 3.67K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Birnbaum Aaron | Sell | 1.36K | $154.03 | 209.48K |
| 2026-02-03 | Birnbaum Aaron | Sell | 327 | $154.03 | 50.37K |
| 2026-02-03 | Birnbaum Aaron | Buy | 4.76K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Birnbaum Aaron | Buy | 7.47K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Buy | 12.00K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Sell | 4.36K | $154.03 | 671.72K |
| 2026-02-03 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Sell | 1.33K | $154.03 | 205.48K |
| 2026-02-03 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Buy | 12.81K | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Buy | 21.10K | — | — |
| 2026-01-01 | Shannon Patrick S | Buy | 320 | — | — |
| 2026-01-01 | Shannon Patrick S | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-01-01 | Olin John A | Buy | 320 | — | — |
| 2026-01-01 | Olin John A | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | Engquist John | Buy | 85 | $133.41 | 11.34K |
| 2025-08-15 | Engquist John | Buy | 59 | $124.76 | 7.36K |
| 2025-06-02 | Cunningham Christian J | Buy | 1 | — | — |
| 2025-06-02 | Engquist John | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2025-06-02 | Engquist John | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | SACHDEV RAKESH | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | Kelly Michael A | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | HOLLEY JEAN K | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | BURGESS SHARI L | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | Browning James H | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | CAMPBELL PATRICK D | Buy | 967 | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | CAMPBELL PATRICK D | Buy | 1.11K | $134.55 | 150.02K |
| 2025-05-15 | Birnbaum Aaron | Buy | 3.72K | — | — |
| 2025-03-13 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 31 | $122.25 | 3.79K |
| 2025-03-13 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 119 | $122.25 | 14.55K |
| 2025-02-08 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 37 | $205.00 | 7.58K |
| 2025-02-08 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 133 | $205.00 | 27.27K |
| 2025-02-08 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 148 | $205.00 | 30.34K |
| 2025-02-08 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 96 | $205.00 | 19.68K |
| 2025-02-08 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 139 | $205.00 | 28.50K |
| 2025-02-08 | Birnbaum Aaron | Sell | 222 | $205.00 | 45.51K |
| 2025-02-08 | Silber Lawrence Harris | Sell | 862 | $205.00 | 176.71K |
| 2025-02-07 | Schumacher Mark Alan | Sell | 39 | $205.00 | 8.00K |
| 2025-02-07 | Sheek Samuel Wade | Sell | 174 | $205.00 | 35.67K |
| 2025-02-07 | Peres Tamir | Sell | 221 | $205.00 | 45.30K |
| 2025-02-07 | Humphrey Mark | Sell | 111 | $205.00 | 22.75K |
| 2025-02-07 | Cunningham Christian J | Sell | 208 | $205.00 | 42.64K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 351, holders +36 vs prior quarter. Ownership 104.98%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | 5.00M | -8.63K | -0.17% | 716.26M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 2.86M | 331.40K | +13.08% | 410.62M |
| NORGES BANK | 2.12M | 2.12M | New | 303.50M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.61M | 46.67K | +2.98% | 231.42M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.47M | 12.62K | +0.86% | 211.24M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 1.33M | 167.24K | +14.37% | 190.84M |
| FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP | 1.31M | 437.73K | +50.12% | 187.93M |
| COLISEUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.12M | -544.94K | -32.79% | 160.13M |
| GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL | 976.74K | 3.60K | +0.37% | 140.01M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 812.73K | 55.18K | +7.28% | 116.52M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 811.69K | 64.46K | +8.63% | 116.36M |
| NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL INC. | 700.73K | 40.80K | +6.18% | 100.44M |
| CHANNING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 630.11K | 111.83K | +21.58% | 90.32M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 614.24K | -203.81K | -24.91% | 88.05M |
| BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP | 600.35K | 85.88K | +16.69% | 86.05M |
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 584.32K | 13.74K | +2.41% | 83.76M |
| GABELLI FUNDS LLC | 500.25K | 7.69K | +1.56% | 71.71M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 426.99K | 84.55K | +24.69% | 61.21M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 392.34K | 392.34K | New | 56.24M |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | 392.34K | -39.69K | -9.19% | 56.24M |
| VOYA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC | 353.55K | 69.99K | +24.68% | 50.68M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 350.91K | 115.59K | +49.12% | 50.30M |
| NUVEEN, LLC | 334.16K | 61.67K | +22.63% | 47.90M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 332.33K | 51.87K | +18.49% | 47.64M |
| STEPHENS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC | 322.42K | 322.42K | New | 46.22M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 12 analysts. Average price target $173.67, +4.8% versus the current price. Low $160.00. High $185.00.
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