Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Fair Value & DCF
KEYS fair value $362.80. Price $285.86. Price is 21% below fair value.
Worked example
Cash-flow value. Starting free cash flow is $8.63 a share. Year 1 is the first earnings forecast, so it has no growth rate of its own. The forecast then reaches 12.63%, and that pace fades in a straight line to 3% terminal growth by year 10. The discount rate is 10.88% (beta 1.20). It is beta-adjusted and capped at 12%. The cash-flow value is $312.54 a share.
Earnings value. Next-twelve-months earnings per share of $13.77 times 30.00 is $413.06. The peer group is Hardware, Equipment & Parts, 10 companies worth at least $10 billion. Peer median 27.5. Own 10-year median 34.3. The multiple used is the average of the two, kept between 8 and 30, which is 30.00.
Fair value is the average of the two, $362.80. The price is $285.86, which is 21.2% below fair value.