MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
MELI$1,652.34-20.75 -1.24%
$83.77B
Market Cap
45.41
P/E
43.19
Forward P/E
53
Score
MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
MELI price $1,652.34 -20.75 -1.24%
- Ticker
- MELI
- Price
- $1,652.34
- Change
- -20.75 -1.24%
- Market cap ?
- $83.77B
- P/E ?
- 45.41
- Forward P/E ?
- 43.19
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 1.31
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Stocklytics score
- 53
- Value
- 47
- Quality
- 50
- Growth
- 61
Stocklytics score rationale: value 47, quality 50, growth 61.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 844396000 | 1216542000 | 1439653000 | 2296314000 | 3974000000 | 7069000000 | 10780000000 | 15107000000 | 20777000000 | 28893000000 |
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America. Its primary service, the Mercado Libre Marketplace, is an automated online system allowing businesses, independent vendors, and private individuals to list merchandise and finalize sales. Supporting this, the Mercado Pago FinTech platform offers a financial technology solution, facilitating transactions both…
Fair value
MELI fair value $1,432.97. Price $1,652.34. Price is 15% above fair value.
Above fair value, and more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 65% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 11.75B. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.49% (beta 1.3). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 50.70M. Net debt 7.72B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | — | 9.27 | — | 10.69B |
| 2026-08-05 | 9.19 | 8.65 | 10.20B | 9.79B |
| 2026-05-07 | 8.23 | 8.75 | 8.85B | 8.29B |
| 2026-02-24 | 11.03 | 11.45 | 8.76B | 8.45B |
| 2025-10-29 | 8.32 | 9.12 | 7.41B | 7.22B |
| 2025-08-04 | 10.31 | 11.93 | 6.79B | 6.67B |
| 2025-05-07 | 9.74 | 8.27 | 5.93B | 5.49B |
| 2025-02-20 | 12.61 | 10.21 | 6.06B | 5.82B |
| 2024-11-06 | 7.83 | 10.00 | 5.31B | 5.28B |
| 2024-08-01 | 10.48 | 8.53 | 5.07B | 4.64B |
| 2024-05-02 | 6.78 | 6.03 | 4.33B | 3.84B |
| 2024-02-22 | 3.25 | 7.08 | 4.26B | 4.14B |
| 2023-11-01 | 7.16 | 5.86 | 3.76B | 3.57B |
| 2023-08-02 | 5.16 | 4.54 | 3.42B | 3.30B |
| 2023-05-03 | 3.97 | 2.80 | 3.04B | 2.85B |
| 2023-02-23 | 3.25 | 2.40 | 3.00B | 2.96B |
| 2022-11-03 | 2.56 | 2.43 | 2.69B | 2.71B |
| 2022-08-03 | 2.43 | 1.80 | 2.60B | 2.51B |
| 2022-05-05 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 2.25B | 2.04B |
| 2022-02-22 | -0.92 | 0.89 | 2.13B | 2.02B |
| 2021-11-04 | 1.92 | 1.29 | 1.86B | 1.83B |
| 2021-08-04 | 1.37 | 0.19 | 1.70B | 1.48B |
| 2021-05-05 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 1.38B | 1.11B |
| 2021-03-01 | -1.02 | 0.39 | 1.33B | 1.20B |
| 2020-11-04 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1.12B | 974.60M |
| 2020-08-10 | 1.11 | 0.09 | 878.37M | 71.22M |
| 2020-05-05 | -0.44 | -0.43 | 652.09M | 711.37M |
| 2020-02-10 | -1.11 | -0.69 | 674.27M | 552.78M |
| 2019-10-31 | -0.97 | -0.01 | 603.03M | 8.15M |
| 2019-08-07 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 545.24M | 439.71M |
| 2019-05-02 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 473.77M | 473.77M |
| 2019-02-26 | -0.05 | -0.15 | 428.02M | 1.11B |
| 2018-11-01 | -0.23 | -0.10 | 355.28M | 401.64M |
| 2018-08-08 | -0.25 | -0.21 | 335.38M | 134.16M |
| 2018-05-09 | -0.29 | 0.48 | 320.98M | 387.41M |
| 2018-02-22 | 0.20 | 0.55 | 436.98M | 119.37M |
| 2017-11-02 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 370.66M | 300.06M |
| 2017-08-03 | 0.61 | 1.02 | 316.53M | 2.46B |
| 2017-05-04 | 1.10 | 0.79 | 273.93M | 193.69M |
| 2017-02-23 | 1.16 | 0.93 | 256.27M | 205.48M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 55/100 · Moderate. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. Dividends were paid in 7 separate years. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-28 | $0.15 | 2017-12-31 | 2018-01-16 | Quarterly |
| 2017-09-28 | $0.15 | 2017-09-30 | 2017-10-16 | Quarterly |
| 2017-06-28 | $0.15 | 2017-06-30 | 2017-07-17 | Quarterly |
| 2017-03-29 | $0.15 | 2017-03-31 | 2017-04-17 | Quarterly |
| 2016-12-28 | $0.15 | 2016-12-31 | 2017-01-16 | Quarterly |
| 2016-09-28 | $0.15 | 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-14 | Quarterly |
| 2016-06-28 | $0.15 | 2016-06-30 | 2016-07-15 | Quarterly |
| 2016-03-29 | $0.15 | 2016-03-31 | 2016-04-15 | Quarterly |
| 2015-12-29 | $0.10 | 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-15 | Quarterly |
| 2015-09-28 | $0.10 | 2015-09-30 | 2015-10-15 | Quarterly |
| 2015-06-26 | $0.10 | 2015-06-30 | 2015-07-15 | Quarterly |
| 2015-03-27 | $0.10 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-04-15 | Quarterly |
| 2014-12-29 | $0.17 | 2014-12-31 | 2015-01-15 | Quarterly |
| 2014-09-26 | $0.17 | 2014-09-30 | 2014-10-15 | Quarterly |
| 2014-06-26 | $0.17 | 2014-06-30 | 2014-07-15 | Quarterly |
| 2014-03-27 | $0.17 | 2014-03-31 | 2014-04-15 | Quarterly |
| 2013-12-27 | $0.14 | 2013-12-31 | 2014-01-15 | Quarterly |
| 2013-09-26 | $0.14 | 2013-09-30 | 2013-10-15 | Quarterly |
| 2013-06-26 | $0.14 | 2013-06-28 | 2013-07-15 | Quarterly |
| 2013-03-26 | $0.14 | 2013-03-29 | 2013-04-15 | Quarterly |
| 2012-12-27 | $0.11 | 2012-12-31 | 2013-01-15 | Quarterly |
| 2012-09-26 | $0.11 | 2012-09-28 | 2012-10-15 | Quarterly |
| 2012-06-27 | $0.11 | 2012-06-29 | 2012-07-16 | Quarterly |
| 2012-03-28 | $0.11 | 2012-03-30 | 2012-04-16 | Quarterly |
| 2011-12-28 | $0.08 | 2011-12-30 | 2012-01-16 | Quarterly |
| 2011-09-28 | $0.08 | 2011-09-30 | 2011-10-15 | Quarterly |
| 2011-06-28 | $0.08 | 2011-06-30 | 2011-07-15 | Quarterly |
| 2011-03-29 | $0.08 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-15 | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Tolda Stelleo | Other | 20.00K | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Summers Sean | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Tolda Stelleo | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Lawson Martin R | Buy | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Melamud Marcelo | Buy | 125 | $1,604.62 | 200.00K |
| 2026-06-10 | Tolda Stelleo | Sell | 250 | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 505 | $1,656.10 | 836.33K |
| 2026-05-22 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 95 | $1,655.01 | 157.23K |
| 2026-02-27 | Melamud Marcelo | Buy | 57 | $1,755.77 | 100.08K |
| 2026-01-01 | Yunes Elias Fraiha Fernando | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-01-01 | Costa Agustin Pablo | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-12-12 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Sell | 845 | $2,028.14 | 1.71M |
| 2025-12-11 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Sell | 45 | $2,027.37 | 91.23K |
| 2025-12-09 | Tolda Stelleo | Sell | 246 | $2,047.88 | 503.78K |
| 2025-08-22 | Tolda Stelleo | Buy | 20.00K | — | — |
| 2025-08-22 | Tolda Stelleo | Sell | 20.00K | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Tolda Stelleo | Buy | 8 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Tolda Stelleo | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | Lawson Martin R | Buy | 64 | — | — |
| 2025-06-17 | Lawson Martin R | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-06-17 | Lawson Martin R | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-11-29 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Sell | 50 | $1,984.98 | 99.25K |
| 2024-09-12 | Tolda Stelleo | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-09-12 | Tolda Stelleo | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | Osvaldo Gimenez | Buy | 17 | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | Galperin Marcos | Buy | 35 | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 6 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Vazquez Mario | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 75 | — | — |
| 2023-08-10 | de los Santos Martin | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | Vazquez Mario | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-06-12 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 98 | — | — |
| 2023-03-30 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 28 | — | — |
| 2023-03-08 | de la Serna Juan Martin | Sell | 150 | $1,250.00 | 187.50K |
| 2023-03-07 | de la Serna Juan Martin | Sell | 150 | $1,265.00 | 189.75K |
| 2023-03-07 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Sell | 150 | $1,256.00 | 188.40K |
| 2022-08-08 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | Vazquez Mario | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-08-08 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 115 | — | — |
| 2022-06-13 | Sanders Richard A | Buy | 62 | — | — |
| 2022-06-08 | Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2022-03-14 | Melamud Marcelo | Buy | 55 | $881.82 | 48.50K |
| 2022-03-09 | de la Serna Juan Martin | Buy | 65 | $928.64 | 60.36K |
| 2022-03-07 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Sell | 75 | $1,008.61 | 75.65K |
| 2022-03-01 | de la Serna Juan Martin | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2022-02-09 | Sanders Richard A | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2022-01-01 | Szarfsztejn Ariel | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2021-08-18 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 100 | $1,787.57 | 178.76K |
| 2021-08-18 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 45 | $1,785.35 | 80.34K |
| 2021-08-18 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 400 | $1,784.65 | 713.86K |
| 2021-08-18 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 300 | $1,779.83 | 533.95K |
| 2021-08-16 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Sell | 178 | $1,850.00 | 329.30K |
| 2021-06-10 | Calemzuk Emiliano | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-10 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-10 | Sallouti Roberto Balls | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-10 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-10 | Vazquez Mario | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-10 | SEGAL SUSAN | Buy | 88 | — | — |
| 2021-06-08 | Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 400 | $1,203.65 | 481.46K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 200 | $1,204.29 | 240.86K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 100 | $1,205.54 | 120.55K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 100 | $1,207.04 | 120.70K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 587 | $1,208.56 | 709.42K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 300 | $1,209.43 | 362.83K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 663 | $1,210.66 | 802.67K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 459 | $1,211.90 | 556.26K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 585 | $1,213.42 | 709.85K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 400 | $1,214.77 | 485.91K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 400 | $1,215.59 | 486.24K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 400 | $1,217.45 | 486.98K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 600 | $1,218.67 | 731.20K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 300 | $1,220.72 | 366.22K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 300 | $1,222.04 | 366.61K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 200 | $1,223.92 | 244.78K |
| 2020-08-19 | Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas | Sell | 6 | $1,229.62 | 7.38K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.52K. Ownership 78.06%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS | 3.14M | New | New | 5.33B |
| BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO | 3.04M | New | New | 5.16B |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 1.87M | New | New | 3.18B |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 1.77M | New | New | 3.01B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 1.50M | New | New | 2.54B |
| INVESCO LTD. | 1.47M | New | New | 2.49B |
| EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.41M | New | New | 2.39B |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 1.32M | New | New | 2.25B |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 1.15M | New | New | 1.95B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 863.10K | New | New | 1.47B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 857.10K | New | New | 1.45B |
| SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP | 657.75K | New | New | 1.12B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 590.60K | New | New | 1.00B |
| LINONIA PARTNERSHIP LP | 553.79K | New | New | 939.99M |
| JUPITER TOPCO LLC | 540.29K | New | New | 917.12M |
| UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC | 533.82K | New | New | 906.09M |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 518.41K | New | New | 872.55M |
| GENERATION INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLP | 472.72K | New | New | 802.38M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 459.75K | New | New | 780.37M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 392.20K | New | New | 665.72M |
| SANDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 378.21K | New | New | 641.97M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 347.33K | New | New | 589.56M |
| DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS LP | 308.66K | New | New | 523.92M |
| FOXHAVEN ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP | 306.25K | New | New | 519.82M |
| D1 CAPITAL PARTNERS L.P. | 277.48K | New | New | 470.98M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 28 analysts. Average price target $2,160.00, +30.7% versus the current price. Low $1,750.00. High $2,450.00.
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