MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MSM price $123.17 +0.58 +0.48%

Ticker
MSM
Price
$123.17
Change
+0.58 +0.48%
Market cap ?
$6.88B
P/E ?
30.72
Forward P/E ?
21.78
Dividend yield ?
2.84%
Beta ?
0.81
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Industrial - Distribution
Stocklytics score
40
Value
33
Quality
50
Growth
36

Stocklytics score rationale: value 33, quality 50, growth 36.

Financials

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
2887744000320387800033638170003192399000324322400036918930004009282000382095100037695210004009703000

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the distribution of industrial supplies, primarily focusing on metalworking, maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services. Its market reach spans the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The company's extensive catalog of MRO products encompasses a wide array of items, including cutting…

Fair value

MSM fair value $135.65. Price $123.17. Price is 9% below fair value.

Around fair value, but more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 90% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 225.16M. Growth 9.44%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.74% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 55.86M. Net debt 463.17M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare MSM

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-01-06—1.28—1.06B
2026-10-221.451.411.08B1.07B
2026-07-011.431.281.05B1.03B
2026-04-010.820.84917.77M931.66M
2026-01-070.990.95965.68M962.56M
2025-10-231.091.02978.17M964.26M
2025-07-011.081.03971.14M969.19M
2025-04-030.720.68891.72M899.59M
2025-01-080.860.73928.48M906.86M
2024-10-241.031.08952.28M959.74M
2024-07-021.331.33979.35M979.10M
2024-03-281.181.16935.35M946.55M
2024-01-091.251.31953.97M972.06M
2023-10-251.641.621.04B1.01B
2023-06-291.741.751.05B1.01B
2023-04-041.451.34961.63M934.07M
2023-01-051.481.46957.75M947.64M
2022-10-201.791.781.02B1.01B
2022-06-291.821.74958.58M960.51M
2022-03-301.291.22862.52M855.96M
2021-12-221.251.19848.55M855.70M
2021-10-201.261.26831.03M840.00M
2021-07-071.421.37866.29M847.22M
2021-04-071.031.01774.00M766.41M
2021-01-061.101.08771.90M757.61M
2020-10-271.090.94747.73M644.83M
2020-07-081.401.16834.97M691.83M
2020-04-081.000.99786.09M778.23M
2020-01-081.211.17823.60M796.37M
2019-10-241.301.23842.67M797.30M
2019-07-101.451.49866.55M890.45M
2019-04-101.241.26823.00M836.28M
2019-01-091.331.32831.60M825.34M
2018-10-301.321.29837.99M818.95M
2018-07-111.391.39828.35M828.30M
2018-04-101.341.30768.99M757.52M
2018-01-101.051.06768.56M775.92M
2017-10-311.070.99753.77M697.44M
2017-07-121.091.09743.92M743.90M
2017-04-060.930.90703.78M681.10M

Dividends

Yield 2.83%. Payout ratio 87.31%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 67/100 · Moderate. Payout ratio is 87% of earnings. Dividends use most of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 24 separate years. Yield is 2.8%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-11-10$0.892026-11-112026-11-25Quarterly
2026-07-08$0.872026-07-082026-07-22Quarterly
2026-04-08$0.872026-04-082026-04-22Quarterly
2026-01-14$0.872026-01-142026-01-28Quarterly
2025-11-12$0.872025-11-122025-11-26Quarterly
2025-07-09$0.852025-07-092025-07-23Quarterly
2025-04-09$0.852025-04-092025-04-23Quarterly
2025-01-15$0.852025-01-152025-01-29Quarterly
2024-11-13$0.852024-11-132024-11-27Quarterly
2024-07-09$0.832024-07-092024-07-23Quarterly
2024-04-08$0.832024-04-092024-04-23Quarterly
2024-01-08$0.832024-01-092024-01-23Quarterly
2023-11-13$0.832023-11-142023-11-28Quarterly
2023-07-10$0.792023-07-112023-07-25Quarterly
2023-04-10$0.792023-04-112023-04-25Quarterly
2023-01-09$0.792023-01-102023-01-24Irregular
2022-11-14$0.792022-11-152022-11-29Quarterly
2022-07-11$0.752022-07-122022-07-26Quarterly
2022-04-11$0.752022-04-122022-04-26Quarterly
2022-01-10$0.752022-01-112022-01-25Quarterly
2021-11-15$0.752021-11-162021-11-30Quarterly
2021-07-12$0.752021-07-132021-07-27Quarterly
2021-04-12$0.752021-04-132021-04-27Quarterly
2021-01-11$0.752021-01-122021-01-26Quarterly
2020-11-30$3.502020-12-012020-12-15Special
2020-11-09$0.752020-11-102020-11-24Quarterly
2020-07-13$0.752020-07-142020-07-28Quarterly
2020-04-13$0.752020-04-142020-04-28Semi-Annual
2020-01-21$5.752020-01-222020-02-05Special
2019-11-08$0.752019-11-122019-11-26Quarterly
2019-07-22$0.752019-07-232019-08-06Quarterly
2019-04-08$0.632019-04-092019-04-23Quarterly
2019-01-07$0.632019-01-082019-01-22Quarterly
2018-11-09$0.632018-11-132018-11-27Quarterly
2018-07-09$0.582018-07-102018-07-24Quarterly
2018-04-16$0.582018-04-172018-05-01Quarterly
2018-01-12$0.582018-01-162018-01-30Quarterly
2017-11-13$0.482017-11-142017-11-28Quarterly
2017-07-14$0.452017-07-182017-08-01Quarterly
2017-04-13$0.452017-04-182017-05-02Quarterly
2017-01-06$0.452017-01-102017-01-24Irregular
2016-11-10$0.452016-11-152016-11-29Quarterly
2016-07-08$0.432016-07-122016-07-26Quarterly
2016-04-08$0.432016-04-122016-04-26Quarterly
2016-01-08$0.432016-01-122016-01-26Quarterly
2015-11-06$0.432015-11-102015-11-24Quarterly
2015-07-10$0.402015-07-142015-07-28Quarterly
2015-04-10$0.402015-04-142015-04-28Quarterly
2015-01-09$0.402015-01-132015-01-27Quarterly
2014-11-14$3.402014-11-182014-11-26Quarterly
2014-07-03$0.332014-07-082014-07-22Quarterly
2014-04-11$0.332014-04-152014-04-22Quarterly
2014-04-04$0.332014-04-082014-04-22Quarterly
2014-01-10$0.332014-01-142014-01-28Quarterly
2013-11-04$0.332013-11-062013-11-20Quarterly
2013-07-05$0.302013-07-092013-07-23Quarterly
2013-04-12$0.302013-04-162013-04-30Quarterly
2012-12-13$0.302012-12-172012-12-27Monthly
2012-11-05$0.302012-11-072012-11-21Quarterly
2012-07-06$0.252012-07-102012-07-24Quarterly
2012-04-05$0.252012-04-102012-04-24Quarterly
2012-01-06$0.252012-01-102012-01-24Quarterly
2011-11-02$0.252011-11-042011-11-18Quarterly
2011-07-08$0.222011-07-122011-07-26Quarterly
2011-04-08$0.222011-04-122011-04-26Quarterly
2011-01-07$0.222011-01-112011-01-25Quarterly
2010-10-29$1.222010-11-022010-11-16Quarterly
2010-07-09$0.222010-07-132010-07-27Quarterly
2010-04-14$0.202010-04-162010-04-27Quarterly
2010-01-14$0.202010-01-192010-02-02Quarterly
2009-10-28$0.202009-10-302009-11-13Quarterly
2009-07-10$0.202009-07-142009-07-28Quarterly
2009-04-09$0.202009-04-142009-04-28Quarterly
2009-01-15$0.202009-01-202009-02-03Quarterly
2008-10-28$0.202008-10-302008-11-13Quarterly
2008-07-08$0.202008-07-102008-07-24Quarterly
2008-04-15$0.182008-04-172008-05-01Quarterly
2008-01-17$0.182008-01-222008-02-05Quarterly
2007-10-30$0.182007-11-012007-11-15Quarterly
2007-07-06$0.182007-07-102007-07-24Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-23JACOBSON MITCHELLSell8.20K——
2026-10-23JACOBSON MITCHELLBuy54.39K$116.726.35M
2026-10-23JACOBSON MITCHELLBuy134.66K$116.0015.62M
2026-10-23JACOBSON MITCHELLBuy60.95K$115.117.02M
2026-10-23Slone Reuben EBuy63$116.527.34K
2026-10-23Slone Reuben EBuy370$115.6442.79K
2026-10-03McIsaac MartinaBuy188——
2026-10-03McIsaac MartinaBuy1.17K——
2026-10-03McIsaac MartinaSell481$130.1262.55K
2026-10-03McIsaac MartinaSell188——
2026-10-03McIsaac MartinaSell1.17K——
2026-09-14Kuhns Robert MBuy12.57K——
2026-09-14Kuhns Robert MOther0——
2026-07-20Siegel WalterBuy2.01K——
2026-07-20Siegel WalterOther0——
2026-04-07JACOBSON MITCHELLSell14.97K——
2026-03-02Slone Reuben EOther0——
2026-02-05PALADINO STEVENBuy13.96K——
2026-02-05PALADINO STEVENSell13.96K——
2026-02-02Seseri RudinaSell1.80K$86.83156.29K
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKBuy69.45K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKSell69.45K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKBuy12.65K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKBuy69.45K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKBuy12.02K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKSell69.45K——
2026-01-27GERSHWIND ERIKSell69.45K——
2026-01-24PALADINO STEVENBuy50——
2026-01-24PALADINO STEVENBuy695——
2026-01-24PALADINO STEVENSell50——
2026-01-24PALADINO STEVENSell695——
2026-01-24Purcell RahquelBuy50——
2026-01-24Purcell RahquelBuy695——
2026-01-24Purcell RahquelSell50——
2026-01-24Purcell RahquelSell695——
2026-01-24Seseri RudinaBuy50——
2026-01-24Seseri RudinaBuy695——
2026-01-24Seseri RudinaSell50——
2026-01-24Seseri RudinaSell695——
2026-01-24Kaufmann Michael CBuy50——
2026-01-24Kaufmann Michael CBuy695——
2026-01-24Kaufmann Michael CSell50——
2026-01-24Kaufmann Michael CSell695——
2026-01-23JACOBSON MITCHELLBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23GERSHWIND ERIKBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23PALADINO STEVENBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23Purcell RahquelBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23GOESER LOUISE KBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23PELLER PHILIPBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23Seseri RudinaBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23Aarnes Robert BBuy1.60K——
2026-01-23Kaufmann Michael CBuy1.60K——
2026-01-22Aarnes Robert BBuy24——
2026-01-22Aarnes Robert BBuy799——
2026-01-22Aarnes Robert BSell799——
2026-01-22Aarnes Robert BSell24——
2026-01-22PALADINO STEVENBuy24——
2026-01-22PALADINO STEVENBuy799——
2026-01-22PALADINO STEVENSell799——
2026-01-22PALADINO STEVENSell24——
2026-01-22Purcell RahquelBuy24——
2026-01-22Purcell RahquelBuy799——
2026-01-22Purcell RahquelSell799——
2026-01-22Purcell RahquelSell24——
2026-01-22Kaufmann Michael CBuy24——
2026-01-22Kaufmann Michael CBuy799——
2026-01-22Kaufmann Michael CSell799——
2026-01-22Kaufmann Michael CSell24——
2026-01-22Seseri RudinaBuy24——
2026-01-22Seseri RudinaBuy799——
2026-01-22Seseri RudinaSell799——
2026-01-22Seseri RudinaSell24——
2026-01-21JACOBSON MITCHELLSell2.91K——
2025-12-17Rockett Julie ValsaBuy1——
2025-12-17Rockett Julie ValsaBuy20——
2025-12-17Rockett Julie ValsaSell7$86.10589
2025-12-17Rockett Julie ValsaSell1——
2025-12-17Rockett Julie ValsaSell20——
2025-11-18JACOBSON MITCHELLBuy22.87K$84.961.94M
2025-11-13PELLER PHILIPBuy6.67K$90.14600.87K
2025-11-05Clark Gregory HaefeleBuy36——
2025-11-05Clark Gregory HaefeleBuy221——
2025-11-05Clark Gregory HaefeleSell93$86.688.03K
2025-11-05Clark Gregory HaefeleSell36——
2025-11-05Clark Gregory HaefeleSell221——
2025-11-05Dongre NealBuy24——
2025-11-05Dongre NealBuy147——
2025-11-05Dongre NealSell50$86.684.31K
2025-11-05Dongre NealSell24——
2025-11-05Dongre NealSell147——
2025-11-05GERSHWIND ERIKBuy771——
2025-11-05GERSHWIND ERIKBuy4.78K——
2025-11-05GERSHWIND ERIKSell2.83K$86.68245.71K
2025-11-05GERSHWIND ERIKSell771——
2025-11-05GERSHWIND ERIKSell4.78K——
2025-11-05Rockett Julie ValsaBuy17——
2025-11-05Rockett Julie ValsaBuy103——
2025-11-05Rockett Julie ValsaSell35$86.683.00K
2025-11-05Rockett Julie ValsaSell17——
2025-11-05Rockett Julie ValsaSell103——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 492, holders +65 vs prior quarter. Ownership 86.11%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.5.56M127.85K+2.35%661.42M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC2.14M6.32K+0.30%254.45M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.03M24.46K+1.22%241.04M
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.1.89M101.82K+5.70%224.51M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC1.74M-869.01K-33.26%207.44M
BOSTON PARTNERS1.71M53.89K+3.25%203.95M
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP1.68M-96.27K-5.43%199.46M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.1.53M1.53MNew182.07M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC1.53M137.55K+9.87%182.07M
STATE STREET CORP1.46M52.86K+3.75%174.10M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP1.25M-109.33K-8.05%148.45M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC1.17M60.92K+5.50%139.01M
EPOCH INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC.926.83K-49.80K-5.10%110.25M
MORGAN STANLEY783.62K167.42K+27.17%93.21M
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC751.55K-180.77K-19.39%89.40M
QUANTINNO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP653.58K191.74K+41.52%77.74M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC619.51K221.14K+55.51%73.69M
ALBERTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CORP570.00K-32.00K-5.32%67.80M
DEPRINCE RACE & ZOLLO INC540.51K-165.27K-23.42%64.29M
NEW SOUTH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC539.03K-39.73K-6.86%64.12M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP470.84K-16.23K-3.33%56.01M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC457.74K157.56K+52.49%53.59M
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT GMBH444.74K-27.23K-5.77%52.90M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP435.23K5.05K+1.17%51.77M
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P.419.83K419.83KNew49.94M

Forecast

Consensus Hold from 13 analysts. Average price target $145.13, +17.8% versus the current price. Low $130.00. High $159.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $145.13 for MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM), 17.8% above the current price of $123.17. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Hold.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

MSM price target

12-month price target
Low$130.00
Average$145.13
High$159.00

The average is 17.8% above the current price of $123.17.

Is MSC Industrial Direct Co. a buy or sell?

Of 13 analysts, 6 rate MSC Industrial Direct Co. Buy or Strong Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Hold. That split is not a recommendation.

MSC Industrial Direct Co. earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $4.65, revenue $4.00 billion. 2027, EPS $5.66, revenue $4.35 billion.

MSM score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for MSM is 40 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

MSM forecast FAQs

What is the MSM price target?

$145.13 average, with a published range of $130.00 to $159.00.

Is MSC Industrial Direct Co. a buy or sell?

The consensus is Hold from 13 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the MSC Industrial Direct Co. stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $4.65. The average revenue estimate is $4.00 billion.

What will MSM be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is MSC Industrial Direct Co.'s next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MSM$123.17+0.58 +0.48%

$6.88B

Market Cap

30.72

P/E

21.78

Forward P/E

40

Score

Price History