Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MUR price $42.53 -0.46 -1.07%

Ticker
MUR
Price
$42.53
Change
-0.46 -1.07%
Market cap ?
$6.10B
P/E ?
20.97
Forward P/E ?
10.33
Dividend yield ?
3.20%
Beta ?
0.49
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Stocklytics score
52
Value
61
Quality
37
Growth
59

Stocklytics score rationale: value 61, quality 37, growth 59.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
1809575000209769500025866270002817111000175170900028012150004220140000344885400030185980002689845000

Murphy Oil Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a company primarily focused on discovering and extracting crude oil and natural gas. Its operational footprint spans across the United States, Canada, and various international locations, where it actively produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The firm, which was initially named Murphy Corporation, adopted its current…

Fair value

MUR fair value $58.94. Price $42.53. Price is 28% below fair value.

Around fair value, but more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on more than 99% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 621.46M. Growth 0.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 143.35M. Net debt 1.82B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare MUR

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-04—0.91—781.53M
2026-08-051.551.57928.31M888.51M
2026-05-060.320.29733.55M702.96M
2026-01-280.14-0.08624.56M633.74M
2025-11-050.410.17720.97M675.20M
2025-08-060.270.21683.07M667.00M
2025-05-070.560.48672.73M668.86M
2025-01-300.350.56670.96M725.21M
2024-11-070.740.68753.17M759.74M
2024-08-080.810.74801.01M813.46M
2024-05-020.850.82794.85M748.65M
2024-01-250.900.99844.20M734.57M
2023-11-021.591.44953.77M855.84M
2023-08-030.790.78812.85M787.56M
2023-05-031.240.98839.97M777.83M
2023-01-261.101.14986.12M854.15M
2022-11-031.841.561.17B966.74M
2022-08-041.931.561.20B885.08M
2022-05-040.730.59871.37M652.29M
2022-01-270.400.45762.31M618.64M
2021-11-040.240.15687.55M627.95M
2021-08-050.590.26758.83M758.46M
2021-05-060.06-0.16592.53M478.42M
2021-01-28-0.09-0.10440.08M314.34M
2020-11-05-0.15-0.19425.32M482.03M
2020-08-06-0.71-1.05285.75M378.31M
2020-05-06-0.30-0.35600.56M900.84M
2020-01-300.160.12756.98M804.30M
2019-10-310.360.22750.34M541.91M
2019-08-080.210.18646.11M553.81M
2019-05-020.150.10590.55M1.06B
2019-01-310.310.26664.72M600.39M
2018-11-070.350.36659.81M678.66M
2018-08-080.360.35655.15M618.75M
2018-05-020.230.22606.95M738.90M
2018-01-310.080.07544.92M340.76M
2017-11-01-0.03-0.14498.20M2.49B
2017-08-02-0.11-0.15509.61M694.93M
2017-05-03-0.06-0.05544.66M272.33M
2017-01-25-0.16-0.19482.99M513.17M

Dividends

Yield 3.23%. Payout ratio 65.68%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 89/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 66% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 44 separate years. Yield is 3.2%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-11-16$0.352026-11-162026-12-01Quarterly
2026-08-17$0.352026-08-172026-09-01Quarterly
2026-05-18$0.352026-05-182026-06-01Quarterly
2026-02-17$0.352026-02-172026-03-02Quarterly
2025-11-17$0.332025-11-172025-12-01Quarterly
2025-08-18$0.332025-08-182025-09-02Quarterly
2025-05-16$0.332025-05-162025-06-02Quarterly
2025-02-18$0.332025-02-182025-03-03Quarterly
2024-11-18$0.302024-11-182024-12-02Quarterly
2024-08-19$0.302024-08-192024-09-03Quarterly
2024-05-17$0.302024-05-202024-06-03Quarterly
2024-02-16$0.302024-02-202024-03-04Quarterly
2023-11-10$0.282023-11-132023-12-01Quarterly
2023-08-11$0.282023-08-142023-09-01Quarterly
2023-05-12$0.282023-05-152023-06-01Quarterly
2023-02-10$0.282023-02-132023-03-01Quarterly
2022-11-10$0.252022-11-142022-12-01Quarterly
2022-08-12$0.252022-08-152022-09-01Quarterly
2022-05-13$0.172022-05-162022-06-01Quarterly
2022-02-11$0.152022-02-142022-03-01Quarterly
2021-11-12$0.122021-11-152021-12-01Quarterly
2021-08-13$0.122021-08-162021-09-01Quarterly
2021-05-14$0.122021-05-172021-06-01Quarterly
2021-02-12$0.122021-02-162021-03-01Quarterly
2020-11-13$0.122020-11-162020-12-01Quarterly
2020-08-14$0.122020-08-172020-09-01Quarterly
2020-05-15$0.122020-05-182020-06-01Quarterly
2020-02-14$0.252020-02-182020-03-02Quarterly
2019-11-15$0.252019-11-182019-12-02Quarterly
2019-08-16$0.252019-08-192019-09-03Quarterly
2019-05-17$0.252019-05-202019-06-03Quarterly
2019-02-15$0.252019-02-192019-03-01Quarterly
2018-11-08$0.252018-11-122018-12-03Quarterly
2018-08-10$0.252018-08-132018-09-04Quarterly
2018-05-11$0.252018-05-142018-06-01Quarterly
2018-02-16$0.252018-02-202018-03-05Quarterly
2017-11-10$0.252017-11-132017-12-01Quarterly
2017-08-10$0.252017-08-142017-09-01Quarterly
2017-05-11$0.252017-05-152017-06-01Quarterly
2017-02-09$0.252017-02-132017-03-01Quarterly
2016-11-09$0.252016-11-142016-12-01Quarterly
2016-08-11$0.252016-08-152016-09-01Quarterly
2016-05-12$0.352016-05-162016-06-01Quarterly
2016-02-11$0.352016-02-162016-03-01Quarterly
2015-11-12$0.352015-11-162015-12-01Quarterly
2015-08-13$0.352015-08-172015-09-01Quarterly
2015-05-13$0.352015-05-152015-06-01Quarterly
2015-02-12$0.352015-02-172015-03-02Quarterly
2014-11-12$0.352014-11-142014-12-01Quarterly
2014-08-14$0.352014-08-182014-09-02Quarterly
2014-05-14$0.312014-05-162014-06-02Quarterly
2014-02-13$0.312014-02-182014-03-03Quarterly
2013-11-13$0.312013-11-152013-12-02Quarterly
2013-08-19$0.272013-08-212013-08-30Quarterly
2013-05-15$0.272013-05-172013-06-03Quarterly
2013-02-14$0.272013-02-192013-03-01Quarterly
2012-11-14$2.432012-11-162012-12-03Quarterly
2012-08-15$0.272012-08-172012-09-04Quarterly
2012-05-14$0.242012-05-162012-06-01Quarterly
2012-02-10$0.242012-02-142012-03-01Quarterly
2011-11-08$0.242011-11-102011-12-01Quarterly
2011-08-11$0.242011-08-152011-09-01Quarterly
2011-05-11$0.242011-05-132011-06-01Quarterly
2011-02-11$0.242011-02-152011-03-01Quarterly
2010-11-09$0.242010-11-122010-12-01Quarterly
2010-08-12$0.242010-08-162010-09-01Quarterly
2010-05-12$0.222010-05-142010-06-01Quarterly
2010-02-11$0.222010-02-162010-03-01Quarterly
2009-11-10$0.222009-11-132009-12-01Quarterly
2009-08-13$0.222009-08-172009-09-01Quarterly
2009-05-13$0.222009-05-152009-06-01Quarterly
2009-02-12$0.222009-02-172009-03-02Quarterly
2008-11-12$0.222008-11-142008-12-01Quarterly
2008-08-14$0.222008-08-182008-09-02Quarterly
2008-05-14$0.162008-05-162008-06-02Quarterly
2008-02-14$0.162008-02-192008-03-03Quarterly
2007-11-07$0.162007-11-122007-12-03Quarterly
2007-08-13$0.162007-08-152007-09-03Quarterly
2007-05-09$0.132007-05-112007-06-01Quarterly
2007-02-09$0.132007-02-132007-03-01Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-09-30Nolan Jeffrey WBuy743——
2026-09-30Earley Michelle ABuy31——
2026-09-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy1.11K——
2026-09-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy507——
2026-08-31Ecklund Michol LBuy25.50K——
2026-08-31Ecklund Michol LBuy25.50K——
2026-08-31Ecklund Michol LOther0——
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WBuy2.17K$31.5168.50K
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WSell2.17K$31.5168.50K
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WSell2.17K$31.5168.50K
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDBuy25.11K——
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell9.88K$33.42330.28K
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDBuy7.80K——
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell3.07K$33.42102.56K
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDBuy8.79K——
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell3.46K$33.42115.60K
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell9.85K——
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell15.40K——
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDSell24.63K——
2026-06-30Nolan Jeffrey WBuy845——
2026-06-30Earley Michelle ABuy35——
2026-06-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy576——
2026-06-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy1.27K——
2026-03-31Nolan Jeffrey WBuy667——
2026-03-31Earley Michelle ABuy28——
2026-03-31DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy1.00K——
2026-03-31DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy455——
2026-03-11Hanchera Daniel RSell47.32K$33.791.60M
2026-03-03Martinez Maria ASell8.61K$34.93300.65K
2026-02-11MURPHY ROBERT MADISONSell43.15K——
2026-02-09MURPHY ROBERT MADISONSell4.34K——
2026-02-09MURPHY ROBERT MADISONBuy2.90K——
2026-02-05Tudor Robert B IIIBuy7.89K——
2026-02-05Tudor Robert B IIISell7.50K——
2026-02-05RYAN ROBERT N JRBuy7.89K——
2026-02-05RYAN ROBERT N JRSell7.50K——
2026-02-05MURPHY ROBERT MADISONBuy7.89K——
2026-02-05MURPHY ROBERT MADISONSell7.50K——
2026-02-05Keller Elisabeth WBuy7.89K——
2026-02-05Keller Elisabeth WSell7.50K——
2026-02-05DICKERSON LAWRENCE RBuy7.89K——
2026-02-05DICKERSON LAWRENCE RSell7.50K——
2026-02-04Tudor Robert B IIIBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04SUGG LAURA ABuy6.32K——
2026-02-04RYAN ROBERT N JRBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04Nolan Jeffrey WBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04MURPHY ROBERT MADISONBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04Keller Elisabeth WBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04Earley Michelle ABuy6.32K——
2026-02-04DICKERSON LAWRENCE RBuy6.32K——
2026-02-04DEMING CLAIBORNE PBuy6.32K——
2026-02-03Riaz AtifBuy7.49K——
2026-02-03Riaz AtifBuy7.49K——
2026-02-03Riaz AtifBuy3.72K——
2026-02-03Riaz AtifSell1.57K$30.0547.17K
2026-02-03Riaz AtifSell4.16K——
2026-02-03MIRELES THOMAS JBuy35.59K——
2026-02-03MIRELES THOMAS JBuy54.91K——
2026-02-03MIRELES THOMAS JSell14.01K$30.05420.80K
2026-02-03MIRELES THOMAS JSell39.86K——
2026-02-03MIRELES THOMAS JBuy36.61K——
2026-02-03Martinez Maria ABuy4.33K——
2026-02-03Martinez Maria ASell1.77K$30.0553.09K
2026-02-03Martinez Maria ABuy11.65K——
2026-02-03Martinez Maria ABuy11.65K——
2026-02-03Martinez Maria ASell4.85K——
2026-02-03Hanchera Daniel RBuy9.90K——
2026-02-03Hanchera Daniel RSell2.41K$30.0572.44K
2026-02-03Hanchera Daniel RBuy14.98K——
2026-02-03Hanchera Daniel RBuy14.98K——
2026-02-03Hanchera Daniel RSell11.09K——
2026-02-03Hambly Eric MBuy35.59K——
2026-02-03Hambly Eric MSell14.01K$30.05420.80K
2026-02-03Hambly Eric MBuy115.82K——
2026-02-03Hambly Eric MSell39.86K——
2026-02-03Hambly Eric MBuy77.21K——
2026-02-03BOTNER E TEDBuy16.09K——
2026-02-03BOTNER E TEDSell6.33K$30.05190.29K
2026-02-03BOTNER E TEDBuy36.94K——
2026-02-03BOTNER E TEDSell18.03K——
2026-02-03BOTNER E TEDBuy24.63K——
2026-02-03Vaughan Paul D.Buy9.15K——
2026-02-03Vaughan Paul D.Buy9.15K——
2026-02-03Vaughan Paul D.Buy4.96K——
2026-02-03Vaughan Paul D.Sell2.00K$30.0559.94K
2026-02-03Vaughan Paul D.Sell5.55K——
2026-01-30Hambly Eric MBuy14.83K——
2026-01-30Hambly Eric MSell6.00K$29.90179.48K
2026-01-30Hambly Eric MSell13.29K——
2026-01-30MIRELES THOMAS JBuy14.83K——
2026-01-30MIRELES THOMAS JSell6.06K$29.90181.15K
2026-01-30MIRELES THOMAS JSell13.29K——
2026-01-30BOTNER E TEDBuy13.41K——
2026-01-30BOTNER E TEDSell5.52K$29.90165.01K
2026-01-30BOTNER E TEDSell12.02K——
2026-01-30Hanchera Daniel RBuy8.26K——
2026-01-30Hanchera Daniel RSell2.26K$29.9067.60K
2026-01-30Hanchera Daniel RSell7.40K——
2026-01-30Martinez Maria ABuy3.62K——
2026-01-30Martinez Maria ASell1.61K$29.9048.29K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 448, holders -28 vs prior quarter. Ownership 91.76%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.19.24M1.01M+5.52%626.51M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP8.39M214.91K+2.63%273.08M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC7.77M192.50K+2.54%252.94M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC7.32M590.08K+8.77%238.23M
STATE STREET CORP7.31M-73.36K-0.99%237.88M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.11M47.34K+0.78%199.09M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.5.11M5.11MNew166.46M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC5.11M455.66K+9.78%166.46M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC4.37M684.05K+18.58%142.20M
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC2.88M-35.15K-1.21%93.65M
FMR LLC2.77M-454.77K-14.12%90.05M
HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.74M15.41K+0.57%89.16M
INVESCO LTD.2.71M83.86K+3.20%88.15M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP2.44M-873.85K-26.39%79.35M
ENCOMPASS CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC2.25M2.25MNew73.26M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP2.01M115.92K+6.13%65.36M
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT GMBH1.91M420.24K+28.13%62.32M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC1.76M-63.12K-3.46%57.29M
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK1.74M-11.42K-0.65%56.49M
MORGAN STANLEY1.56M-290.27K-15.69%50.79M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP1.53M-45.29K-2.88%49.68M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/1.40M-431.91K-23.52%45.72M
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC1.20M-789.67K-39.60%39.21M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC1.20M1.00M+500.83%39.13M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT1.04M210.08K+25.30%33.87M

Forecast

Consensus Hold from 17 analysts. Average price target $40.40, -5.0% versus the current price. Low $35.00. High $47.00.

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Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $40.40 for Murphy Oil (MUR), 5.0% below the current price of $42.53. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 Hold, and 2 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Hold.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

MUR price target

12-month price target
Low$35.00
Average$40.40
High$47.00

The average is 5.0% below the current price of $42.53.

Is Murphy Oil a buy or sell?

Of 17 analysts, 3 rate Murphy Oil Buy or Strong Buy, 12 Hold, and 2 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Hold. That split is not a recommendation.

Murphy Oil earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $4.12, revenue $3.33 billion. 2027, EPS $3.82, revenue $3.23 billion.

MUR score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for MUR is 52 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

MUR forecast FAQs

What is the MUR price target?

$40.40 average, with a published range of $35.00 to $47.00.

Is Murphy Oil a buy or sell?

The consensus is Hold from 17 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the Murphy Oil stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $4.12. The average revenue estimate is $3.33 billion.

What will MUR be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is Murphy Oil's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MUR$42.53-0.46 -1.07%

$6.10B

Market Cap

20.97

P/E

10.33

Forward P/E

52

Score

Price History