National HealthCare (NHC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NHC price $218.03 +6.24 +2.95%

Ticker
NHC
Price
$218.03
Change
+6.24 +2.95%
Market cap ?
$3.41B
P/E ?
23.45
Dividend yield ?
1.24%
Beta ?
0.61
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Medical - Care Facilities
Stocklytics score
45
Value
31
Quality
59
Growth
46

Stocklytics score rationale: value 31, quality 59, growth 46.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
92358000096389500098034900099638300098071200010109420001074281000114154400012979370001517781000

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) is a prominent provider in the healthcare sector, involved in the operation, management, and service provision for a wide array of elder care and health facilities. Its diverse portfolio includes skilled nursing facilities, assisted living communities, independent living residences, homecare and hospice agencies, and a specialized behavioral health hospital. Within its skilled…

Fair value

NHC fair value $230.81. Price $218.03. Price is 6% below fair value.

Below fair value, but more expensive than usual. A smaller discount than on 69% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 146.53M. Growth 9.13%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 15.66M. Net debt -23.88M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare NHC

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-06————
2026-08-062.54—408.02M—
2026-05-081.91—381.82M—
2026-02-261.83—386.51M—
2025-11-071.58—382.66M—
2025-08-081.65—373.10M—
2025-05-091.59—373.70M—
2025-02-271.66—369.35M—
2024-11-081.27—340.20M—
2024-08-091.00—291.21M—
2024-05-100.97—297.18M—
2024-02-161.03—300.91M—
2023-11-030.86—288.49M—
2023-08-040.89—282.58M—
2023-05-050.79—269.56M—
2023-02-170.72—264.04M—
2022-11-030.50—270.84M—
2022-08-050.46—271.04M—
2022-05-060.91—268.36M—
2022-02-181.02—268.38M—
2021-11-050.96—266.31M—
2021-08-060.98—248.03M—
2021-05-071.08—228.22M—
2021-02-190.90—249.10M—
2020-11-050.88—238.49M—
2020-08-060.92—236.99M—
2020-05-081.11—256.12M—
2020-02-201.09—253.88M—
2019-11-050.84—247.07M—
2019-08-080.84—247.15M—
2019-05-101.11—248.28M—
2019-02-211.16—248.92M—
2018-11-091.03—246.33M—
2018-08-100.93—242.14M—
2018-05-041.06—242.96M—
2018-02-200.85—246.31M—
2017-11-090.75—241.20M—
2017-08-040.70—238.69M—
2017-05-100.84—238.54M—
2017-02-150.91—238.00M—

Dividends

Yield 1.20%. Payout ratio 28.36%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 28% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 34 separate years. Yield is 1.2%, which is modest.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-09-30$0.672026-09-302026-10-30Quarterly
2026-06-30$0.672026-06-302026-07-31Quarterly
2026-03-31$0.642026-03-312026-04-30Quarterly
2025-12-31$0.642025-12-312026-01-30Quarterly
2025-09-30$0.642025-09-302025-10-31Quarterly
2025-06-30$0.642025-06-302025-08-01Quarterly
2025-03-28$0.612025-03-282025-04-25Quarterly
2024-12-30$0.612024-12-302025-01-31Quarterly
2024-09-30$0.612024-09-302024-11-01Quarterly
2024-06-28$0.612024-06-282024-08-01Quarterly
2024-03-27$0.592024-03-292024-05-01Quarterly
2023-12-28$0.592023-12-292024-02-01Quarterly
2023-09-28$0.592023-09-292023-11-01Quarterly
2023-06-29$0.592023-06-302023-07-31Quarterly
2023-03-30$0.572023-03-312023-05-01Quarterly
2022-12-29$0.572022-12-302023-02-01Quarterly
2022-09-29$0.572022-09-302022-11-01Quarterly
2022-06-29$0.572022-06-302022-08-01Quarterly
2022-03-30$0.552022-03-312022-05-02Quarterly
2021-12-30$0.552021-12-312022-02-01Quarterly
2021-09-29$0.522021-09-302021-11-01Quarterly
2021-06-29$0.522021-06-302021-08-02Quarterly
2021-03-30$0.522021-03-312021-05-03Quarterly
2020-12-30$0.522020-12-312021-02-01Quarterly
2020-09-29$0.522020-09-302020-11-02Quarterly
2020-06-29$0.522020-06-302020-08-03Quarterly
2020-03-30$0.522020-03-312020-05-01Quarterly
2019-12-30$0.522019-12-312020-02-03Quarterly
2019-09-27$0.522019-09-302019-12-02Quarterly
2019-06-27$0.522019-06-282019-08-30Quarterly
2019-03-28$0.502019-03-292019-06-03Quarterly
2018-12-28$0.502018-12-312019-03-01Quarterly
2018-09-27$0.502018-09-282018-12-03Quarterly
2018-06-28$0.502018-06-292018-08-31Quarterly
2018-03-28$0.482018-03-302018-06-01Quarterly
2017-12-28$0.482017-12-292018-03-01Quarterly
2017-09-28$0.482017-09-292017-12-01Quarterly
2017-06-28$0.482017-06-302017-09-01Quarterly
2017-03-29$0.452017-03-312017-06-01Quarterly
2016-12-28$0.452016-12-302017-03-01Quarterly
2016-09-28$0.452016-09-302016-12-01Quarterly
2016-06-28$0.452016-06-302016-09-01Quarterly
2016-03-29$0.402016-03-312016-06-01Quarterly
2015-12-29$0.402015-12-312016-03-01Quarterly
2015-09-28$0.402015-09-302015-12-01Quarterly
2015-09-11$0.402015-09-152015-10-15Quarterly
2015-06-26$0.402015-06-302015-09-01Quarterly
2015-03-27$0.342015-03-312015-06-01Quarterly
2014-12-29$0.342014-12-312015-03-02Quarterly
2014-09-26$0.342014-09-302014-12-01Quarterly
2014-06-26$0.342014-06-302014-09-02Quarterly
2014-03-27$0.322014-03-312014-06-02Quarterly
2013-12-27$0.322013-12-312014-03-03Quarterly
2013-09-26$0.322013-09-302013-12-02Quarterly
2013-06-26$0.322013-06-282013-08-30Quarterly
2013-03-26$0.302013-03-282013-05-31Quarterly
2012-12-27$0.302012-12-312013-03-01Monthly
2012-12-13$1.002012-12-172012-12-21Quarterly
2012-09-27$0.302012-10-012012-11-30Quarterly
2012-06-27$0.302012-06-292012-08-31Quarterly
2012-03-28$0.302012-03-302012-06-01Quarterly
2011-12-28$0.302011-12-302012-03-01Quarterly
2011-09-28$0.302011-09-302011-12-01Quarterly
2011-06-28$0.302011-06-302011-09-01Quarterly
2011-03-29$0.282011-03-312011-06-01Quarterly
2010-12-29$0.282010-12-312011-03-01Quarterly
2010-09-28$0.282010-09-302010-12-01Quarterly
2010-06-28$0.282010-06-302010-09-01Quarterly
2010-03-29$0.262010-03-312010-06-01Quarterly
2009-12-29$0.262009-12-312010-03-01Quarterly
2009-09-28$0.262009-09-302009-12-01Quarterly
2009-06-26$0.262009-06-302009-09-01Quarterly
2009-03-27$0.242009-03-312009-06-01Quarterly
2008-12-29$0.242008-12-312009-03-02Quarterly
2008-09-26$0.242008-09-302008-12-01Quarterly
2008-06-26$0.242008-06-302008-09-02Quarterly
2008-03-27$0.212008-03-312008-06-02Quarterly
2007-12-27$0.212007-12-312008-03-03Quarterly
2007-09-26$0.212007-09-282007-12-03Quarterly
2007-06-27$0.212007-06-292007-09-03Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-09-22Dodson Vicki LSell4.83K$225.001.09M
2026-09-11KIDD BRIAN FSell6.81K$225.701.54M
2026-09-10McCreary Josh ASell571$222.73127.18K
2026-09-10McCreary Josh ASell789$223.78176.56K
2026-09-10McCreary Josh ASell1.29K$225.09290.59K
2026-09-10McCreary Josh ASell68$225.5915.34K
2026-08-28FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$222.50222.50K
2026-08-25FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$227.00227.00K
2026-08-25Gifford David R.Sell1.78K$225.42401.02K
2026-08-20FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$237.00237.00K
2026-08-20Gifford David R.Buy6.48K$171.421.11M
2026-08-20Gifford David R.Sell4.69K$236.751.11M
2026-08-20Gifford David R.Sell6.48K$171.421.11M
2026-08-19FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$237.18237.18K
2026-08-19Flatt Stephen FowlerSell1.50K$237.08355.62K
2026-08-17FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$226.00226.00K
2026-08-14FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$222.11222.11K
2026-08-13Gifford David R.Sell1.02K$171.42175.02K
2026-08-13Gifford David R.Buy1.02K$171.42175.02K
2026-08-12FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.00K$221.21221.21K
2026-06-22HASSAN EMIL ESell5.94K$200.001.19M
2026-06-16KIDD BRIAN FSell500——
2026-06-16HASSAN EMIL ESell1.56K$199.97312.56K
2026-06-08ADAMS ROBERT GBuy4.00K$69.19276.76K
2026-06-08ADAMS ROBERT GSell4.00K$69.19276.76K
2026-06-08ADAMS ROBERT GSell4.00K$69.19276.76K
2026-06-01Piercey LisaBuy949$184.26174.86K
2026-05-22FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRBuy4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-05-22FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell2.74K$196.00536.84K
2026-05-22FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-05-21LAROCHE RICHARD F JRSell7.50K$195.141.46M
2026-05-20Flatt Stephen FowlerSell26——
2026-05-19Shelly Timothy J.Sell1.85K$197.22365.44K
2026-05-14Flatt Stephen FowlerBuy1.00K$90.6290.62K
2026-05-14Flatt Stephen FowlerBuy5.00K$94.10470.50K
2026-05-14Flatt Stephen FowlerSell4.49K$197.96889.24K
2026-05-14Flatt Stephen FowlerSell1.00K$90.6290.62K
2026-05-14Flatt Stephen FowlerSell5.00K$94.10470.50K
2026-05-14KIDD BRIAN FBuy500$90.6245.31K
2026-05-14KIDD BRIAN FBuy4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-05-14KIDD BRIAN FSell3.13K$197.96620.41K
2026-05-14KIDD BRIAN FSell500$90.6245.31K
2026-05-14KIDD BRIAN FSell4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-05-07Adams William A.Buy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07Trail Sandra Y.Buy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07ABERNATHY JAMES PAULBuy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07Adams William A.Buy7.50K——
2026-05-07Gifford David R.Buy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07Piercey LisaBuy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07ADAMS ROBERT GBuy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07HASSAN EMIL EBuy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-07LAROCHE RICHARD F JRBuy7.50K$171.421.29M
2026-05-06Trail Sandra Y.Buy3.14K$55.75175.06K
2026-05-06Trail Sandra Y.Sell3.14K$55.75175.06K
2026-05-05LAROCHE RICHARD F JRBuy7.50K$71.64537.30K
2026-05-05LAROCHE RICHARD F JRSell7.50K$71.64537.30K
2026-04-30HASSAN EMIL EBuy7.50K$71.64537.30K
2026-04-30HASSAN EMIL ESell7.50K$71.64537.30K
2026-04-22Dodson Vicki LBuy4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-04-22Dodson Vicki LSell2.85K$173.63495.37K
2026-04-22Dodson Vicki LSell4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-04-09FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell2.11K$176.81372.89K
2026-04-09FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRBuy3.73K$53.94201.41K
2026-04-09FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell1.91K$176.81337.53K
2026-04-09FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell3.73K$53.94201.41K
2026-03-16Dodson Vicki LBuy3.73K$53.94201.41K
2026-03-16Dodson Vicki LSell2.03K$164.96335.53K
2026-03-16Dodson Vicki LSell3.73K$53.94201.41K
2026-03-12Flatt Stephen FowlerBuy1.85K$53.9499.95K
2026-03-12Flatt Stephen FowlerSell1.85K$53.9499.95K
2026-03-12KIDD BRIAN FBuy1.85K$53.9499.95K
2026-03-12KIDD BRIAN FSell1.85K$53.9499.95K
2026-03-09ABERNATHY JAMES PAULBuy3.14K$55.75175.06K
2026-03-09ABERNATHY JAMES PAULSell3.14K$55.75175.06K
2026-03-04Dodson Vicki LBuy4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04Dodson Vicki LSell3.16K$172.83545.97K
2026-03-04Dodson Vicki LSell4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRBuy4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRBuy4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell8.14K$172.831.41M
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRBuy3.73K$53.94201.36K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell4.00K$94.10376.40K
2026-03-04FLATT BEN ANDERSON SRSell3.73K$53.94201.36K
2026-03-04McCreary Josh ABuy4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04McCreary Josh ASell3.20K$172.83553.40K
2026-03-04McCreary Josh ASell4.50K$90.62407.79K
2026-03-04Shelly Timothy J.Buy3.67K$90.62332.30K
2026-03-04Shelly Timothy J.Sell3.67K$90.62332.30K
2026-03-04Shelly Timothy J.Sell2.67K$94.10250.96K
2026-03-04Shelly Timothy J.Buy2.67K$94.10250.96K
2026-03-04Shelly Timothy J.Sell4.48K$172.83774.45K
2026-03-04KIDD BRIAN FBuy4.00K$90.62362.48K
2026-03-04KIDD BRIAN FSell3.95K$172.83682.16K
2026-03-04KIDD BRIAN FBuy2.00K$53.94107.88K
2026-03-04KIDD BRIAN FSell4.00K$90.62362.48K
2026-03-04KIDD BRIAN FSell2.00K$53.94107.88K
2026-03-02Flatt Stephen FowlerBuy5.00K$90.62453.10K
2026-03-02Flatt Stephen FowlerSell3.58K$171.15613.57K
2026-03-02Flatt Stephen FowlerSell5.00K$90.62453.10K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 255, holders +15 vs prior quarter. Ownership 66.73%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.1.98M80.53K+4.25%417.60M
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC1.03M-10.27K-0.99%217.39M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP929.69K-17.29K-1.83%196.49M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC809.22K19.80K+2.51%171.04M
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP730.57K200.27K+37.77%154.41M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC552.14K2.59K+0.47%116.70M
STATE STREET CORP526.73K35.16K+7.15%111.68M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC380.93K57.67K+17.84%80.53M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC299.72K-35.80K-10.67%63.35M
INVESCO LTD.175.29K25.09K+16.71%37.05M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC174.34K-4.26K-2.39%36.85M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.174.34K174.34KNew36.85M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP145.18K8.47K+6.19%30.69M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP122.32K2.37K+1.97%25.85M
SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP109.09K-7.16K-6.16%23.06M
T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC.107.25K107.25KNew22.67M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP96.55K21.29K+28.29%20.41M
MORGAN STANLEY93.54K-14.28K-13.24%19.77M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC92.93K3.32K+3.70%19.64M
ALPS ADVISORS INC87.66K-70.18K-44.46%18.53M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO84.97K4.80K+5.99%17.96M
HOOD RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC80.65K24.78K+44.35%17.05M
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC67.91K817+1.22%14.35M
MANATUCK HILL PARTNERS, LLC59.43K-972-1.61%12.56M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC51.49K-46.86K-47.64%10.88M

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

The National HealthCare (NHC) forecast collects the published price target, analyst ratings, and earnings estimates when they are available.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

NHC price target

A low, average, and high target are shown in the tool when analysts have published them.

Is National HealthCare a buy or sell?

A Buy, Hold, and Sell split is shown when analysts have published ratings. It is not a recommendation.

National HealthCare earnings and revenue forecast

EPS and revenue estimates for the coming years are drawn in the chart when analysts have published them.

NHC score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for NHC is 45 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

NHC forecast FAQs

What is the NHC price target?

A 12-month average target is shown on this page when analysts have published one.

Is National HealthCare a buy or sell?

A consensus is shown when analysts have published ratings. It is not a recommendation.

What is the National HealthCare stock forecast for 2026?

An EPS estimate for 2026 is shown in the chart on this page when analysts have published one.

What will NHC be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is National HealthCare's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

National HealthCare (NHC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NHC$218.03+6.24 +2.95%

$3.41B

Market Cap

23.45

P/E

—

Forward P/E

45

Score

Price History