Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
NVO$38.16-0.51 -1.32%
$168.36B
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
NVO price $38.16 -0.51 -1.32%
- Ticker
- NVO
- Price
- $38.16
- Change
- -0.51 -1.32%
- Market cap ?
- $168.36B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the investigation, creation, manufacturing, and distribution of medicinal products across a vast international footprint. Its market presence extends throughout Europe, the Middle East, Africa, various parts of Asia (including Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), and North America. The company's operations are structured into two principal business…
Fair value
NVO fair value $434.38. Price $38.16. Price is 91% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 79% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 97.12B. Growth 8.04%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 4.41B. Net debt 104.49B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Free cash flow adds back growth capex above depreciation.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | — | 0.73 | — | 11.09B |
| 2026-08-05 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 12.13B | 10.89B |
| 2026-05-06 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 11.02B | 10.86B |
| 2026-02-03 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 12.50B | 12.13B |
| 2025-11-05 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 11.53B | 11.94B |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 11.97B | 11.92B |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 11.90B | 11.70B |
| 2025-02-05 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 11.86B | 11.55B |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 10.68B | 10.48B |
| 2024-08-07 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 9.80B | 10.04B |
| 2024-05-02 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 9.38B | 9.07B |
| 2024-01-31 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 9.60B | 9.15B |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 8.35B | 8.17B |
| 2023-08-10 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 8.03B | 8.21B |
| 2023-05-04 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 7.88B | 7.66B |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 6.93B | 6.84B |
| 2022-11-02 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 6.04B | 5.89B |
| 2022-08-03 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 5.62B | 5.73B |
| 2022-04-29 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 5.96B | 5.77B |
| 2022-02-02 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 5.82B | 5.76B |
| 2021-11-03 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 5.56B | 842.24M |
| 2021-08-04 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 5.27B | 5.09B |
| 2021-05-05 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 5.34B | 5.12B |
| 2021-02-03 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 5.28B | 5.11B |
| 2020-10-30 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 4.87B | 4.96B |
| 2020-08-06 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 4.53B | 5.19B |
| 2020-05-06 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 4.93B | 3.94B |
| 2020-02-05 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 4.92B | 4.75B |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 4.44B | 4.36B |
| 2019-08-20 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 4.56B | 4.46B |
| 2019-05-03 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 4.40B | 4.10B |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 4.77B | 4.80B |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 4.34B | 4.44B |
| 2018-08-08 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 4.27B | 4.04B |
| 2018-05-02 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 4.45B | 4.07B |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 4.41B | 5.08B |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 4.21B | 4.02B |
| 2017-08-10 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 4.39B | 4.60B |
| 2017-05-03 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 4.10B | 3.79B |
| 2017-02-02 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 4.17B | 4.19B |
Dividends
Yield 4.71%. Payout ratio 44.64%. Frequency Semi-Annual.
Safety score 95/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 45% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 42 separate years. Yield is 4.7%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | $0.58 | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-25 | Semi-Annual |
| 2026-03-30 | $1.22 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-08 | Semi-Annual |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.58 | 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-26 | Semi-Annual |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.14 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-08 | Semi-Annual |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.52 | 2024-08-16 | 2024-08-26 | Semi-Annual |
| 2024-03-22 | $0.93 | 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-02 | Semi-Annual |
| 2023-08-18 | $0.44 | 2023-08-21 | 2023-08-29 | Semi-Annual |
| 2023-03-24 | $0.59 | 2023-03-27 | 2023-04-04 | Semi-Annual |
| 2022-08-12 | $0.29 | 2022-08-15 | 2022-08-23 | Semi-Annual |
| 2022-03-25 | $0.51 | 2022-03-28 | 2022-04-05 | Semi-Annual |
| 2021-08-16 | $0.28 | 2021-08-17 | 2021-08-25 | Semi-Annual |
| 2021-03-26 | $0.46 | 2021-03-29 | 2021-04-07 | Semi-Annual |
| 2020-08-14 | $0.26 | 2020-08-17 | 2020-08-25 | Semi-Annual |
| 2020-03-27 | $0.39 | 2020-03-30 | 2020-04-07 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-08-16 | $0.22 | 2019-08-19 | 2019-08-27 | Semi-Annual |
| 2019-03-22 | $0.39 | 2019-03-25 | 2019-04-02 | Semi-Annual |
| 2018-08-17 | $0.23 | 2018-08-20 | 2018-08-28 | Semi-Annual |
| 2018-03-23 | $0.40 | 2018-03-26 | 2018-04-03 | Semi-Annual |
| 2017-08-17 | $0.24 | 2017-08-21 | 2017-08-29 | Semi-Annual |
| 2017-03-23 | $0.34 | 2017-03-27 | 2017-04-04 | Semi-Annual |
| 2016-08-11 | $0.23 | 2016-08-15 | 2016-08-23 | Semi-Annual |
| 2016-03-18 | $0.48 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-03-30 | Annual |
| 2015-03-19 | $0.36 | 2015-03-23 | 2015-03-31 | Annual |
| 2014-03-21 | $0.42 | 2014-03-25 | 2014-04-02 | Annual |
| 2013-03-21 | $0.31 | 2013-03-25 | 2013-04-02 | Annual |
| 2012-03-22 | $0.25 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-04-03 | Annual |
| 2011-03-24 | $0.19 | 2011-03-28 | 2011-04-05 | Annual |
| 2010-03-25 | $0.14 | 2010-03-29 | 2010-04-07 | Annual |
| 2009-03-19 | $0.11 | 2009-03-23 | 2009-03-31 | Annual |
| 2008-03-13 | $0.09 | 2008-03-17 | 2008-03-25 | Annual |
| 2007-03-08 | $0.06 | 2007-03-12 | 2007-03-20 | Annual |
| 2006-03-09 | $0.05 | 2006-03-13 | 2006-03-21 | Annual |
| 2005-03-10 | $0.04 | 2005-03-14 | 2005-03-22 | Annual |
| 2004-03-17 | $0.04 | 2004-03-19 | 2004-03-29 | Annual |
| 2003-03-26 | $0.03 | 2003-03-28 | 2003-04-07 | Annual |
| 2002-03-13 | $0.02 | 2002-03-15 | 2002-03-25 | Annual |
| 2001-03-21 | $0.02 | 2001-03-23 | 2001-04-02 | Annual |
| 2000-03-24 | $0.01 | 2000-03-28 | 2000-04-06 | Annual |
| 1999-03-25 | $0.01 | 1999-03-29 | 1999-04-06 | Annual |
| 1998-03-27 | $0.01 | 1998-03-31 | 1998-04-08 | Annual |
| 1997-04-25 | $0.01 | 1997-04-29 | 1997-05-07 | Annual |
| 1996-05-01 | $0.00 | 1996-05-03 | 1996-05-14 | Annual |
| 1995-04-24 | $0.00 | 1995-04-28 | 1995-05-16 | Annual |
| 1994-04-26 | $0.00 | 1994-05-02 | 1994-05-18 | Annual |
| 1993-04-22 | $0.00 | 1993-04-28 | 1993-05-13 | Annual |
| 1992-04-28 | $0.00 | 1992-05-04 | 1992-05-20 | Annual |
| 1991-04-19 | $0.00 | 1991-04-25 | 1991-05-10 | Annual |
| 1990-04-23 | $0.00 | 1990-04-27 | 1990-05-15 | Annual |
| 1989-04-21 | $0.00 | 1989-04-27 | 1989-05-12 | Annual |
| 1988-04-21 | $0.00 | 1988-04-27 | 1988-05-12 | Annual |
| 1987-04-20 | $0.00 | 1987-04-24 | 1987-05-11 | Annual |
| 1986-04-21 | $0.00 | 1986-04-25 | 1986-05-12 | Annual |
| 1985-04-19 | $0.00 | 1985-04-25 | 1985-05-10 | Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.46K, holders +84 vs prior quarter. Ownership 7.41%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DODGE & COX | 20.40M | 1.06M | +5.50% | 977.84M |
| LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P | 18.59M | 1.58M | +9.27% | 891.41M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 13.04M | -3.04M | -18.92% | 625.19M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 12.01M | 7.41M | +161.13% | 575.72M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 11.70M | 644.04K | +5.82% | 561.12M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 11.66M | 790.67K | +7.27% | 558.97M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 11.18M | 407.01K | +3.78% | 535.81M |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 9.72M | -2.07M | -17.59% | 467.58M |
| FOLKETRYGDFONDET | 9.52M | 441.56K | +4.86% | 456.50M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 9.18M | 4.06M | +79.27% | 440.11M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 9.06M | 6.32M | +231.05% | 434.31M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 8.83M | 6.09M | +222.72% | 423.38M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 8.83M | 4.23M | +92.01% | 423.32M |
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 8.32M | -696.15K | -7.72% | 399.10M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 8.27M | 443.29K | +5.66% | 396.50M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 7.28M | 5.26M | +259.91% | 349.22M |
| EVERETT HARRIS & CO /CA/ | 6.48M | 50.96K | +0.79% | 310.44M |
| STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO | 6.14M | 0 | 0.00% | 294.48M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 5.87M | 32.64K | +0.56% | 284.57M |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 5.40M | 871.28K | +19.24% | 258.83M |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 5.21M | -3.50K | -0.07% | 249.61M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 5.09M | 3.66M | +255.71% | 243.87M |
| FRED ALGER MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.91M | 4.91M | New | 235.27M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 4.82M | 216.68K | +4.71% | 230.86M |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | 4.66M | 1.02M | +27.87% | 223.29M |
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