Novartis AG (NVS) Stock Forecast & Price Target
NVS$155.94-0.93 -0.59%
$296.39B
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score
Novartis AG (NVS) Stock Forecast & Price Target
NVS price $155.94 -0.93 -0.59%
- Ticker
- NVS
- Price
- $155.94
- Change
- -0.93 -0.59%
- Market cap ?
- $296.39B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the business of developing, manufacturing, and marketing healthcare products. Its product portfolio is heavily focused on innovative prescription medicines, especially oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and cardiovascular diseases, supplemented by established older brands and a wide range of specialized therapies. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is…
Fair value
NVS fair value $217.21. Price $155.94. Price is 28% below fair value.
Below fair value, around its usual discount.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 15.82B. Growth 8.32%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.90B. Net debt 25.60B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-03 | — | 2.23 | — | 14.69B |
| 2026-10-27 | 2.46 | 2.25 | 14.52B | 14.53B |
| 2026-07-21 | 2.41 | 2.17 | 14.41B | 14.07B |
| 2026-04-28 | 1.99 | 2.11 | 13.11B | 13.44B |
| 2026-02-04 | 2.03 | 1.99 | 13.34B | 13.70B |
| 2025-10-28 | 2.25 | 2.26 | 14.36B | 13.64B |
| 2025-07-17 | 2.42 | 2.38 | 14.28B | 13.94B |
| 2025-04-29 | 2.28 | 2.12 | 13.62B | 13.90B |
| 2025-01-31 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 13.56B | 12.84B |
| 2024-10-29 | 2.06 | 1.94 | 13.17B | 12.76B |
| 2024-07-18 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 12.51B | 12.54B |
| 2024-04-23 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 11.83B | 11.44B |
| 2024-01-31 | 1.53 | 1.64 | 11.78B | 11.88B |
| 2023-10-24 | 1.74 | 1.70 | 12.09B | 12.42B |
| 2023-07-18 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 13.94B | 13.47B |
| 2023-04-25 | 1.71 | 1.55 | 13.21B | 12.72B |
| 2023-02-01 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 13.09B | 13.22B |
| 2022-10-25 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 12.84B | 12.88B |
| 2022-07-19 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 13.09B | 12.88B |
| 2022-04-26 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 12.81B | 12.62B |
| 2022-02-02 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 13.52B | 13.33B |
| 2021-10-26 | 1.71 | 1.65 | 13.37B | 12.95B |
| 2021-07-21 | 1.66 | 1.53 | 13.29B | 12.95B |
| 2021-04-27 | 1.52 | 1.57 | 12.69B | 13.25B |
| 2021-01-26 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 13.03B | 13.22B |
| 2020-10-27 | 1.52 | 1.42 | 12.54B | 11.93B |
| 2020-07-21 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 11.62B | 11.18B |
| 2020-04-28 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 12.71B | 10.95B |
| 2020-01-29 | 1.31 | 1.32 | 12.72B | 12.42B |
| 2019-10-22 | 1.41 | 1.31 | 12.48B | 12.02B |
| 2019-07-18 | 1.32 | 1.20 | 12.02B | 10.84B |
| 2019-04-24 | 1.20 | 1.11 | 11.46B | 10.96B |
| 2019-01-30 | 1.24 | 1.33 | 13.66B | 13.98B |
| 2018-10-18 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 11.39B | 11.21B |
| 2018-07-18 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 13.45B | 13.24B |
| 2018-04-19 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 12.93B | 12.93B |
| 2018-01-24 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 13.16B | 12.94B |
| 2017-10-24 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 12.69B | 12.29B |
| 2017-07-18 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 12.49B | 12.28B |
| 2017-04-25 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 11.79B | 11.57B |
Dividends
Yield 3.04%. Payout ratio 67.77%. Frequency Annual.
Safety score 82/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 68% of earnings. Dividends use a moderate share of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 30 separate years. Yield is 3.0%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $4.74 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-16 | Annual |
| 2025-03-12 | $3.99 | 2025-03-12 | 2025-04-25 | Annual |
| 2024-03-07 | $3.20 | 2024-03-08 | 2024-04-19 | Annual |
| 2023-03-09 | $3.50 | 2023-03-10 | 2023-03-20 | Annual |
| 2022-03-08 | $3.33 | 2022-03-09 | 2022-03-17 | Annual |
| 2021-03-04 | $3.20 | 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-15 | Annual |
| 2020-03-03 | $3.09 | 2020-03-04 | 2020-03-12 | Annual |
| 2019-03-04 | $2.57 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-03-13 | Annual |
| 2018-03-06 | $2.67 | 2018-03-07 | 2018-04-25 | Annual |
| 2017-03-01 | $2.46 | 2017-03-03 | 2017-04-20 | Annual |
| 2016-02-24 | $2.47 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-04-15 | Annual |
| 2015-03-02 | $2.52 | 2015-03-04 | 2015-04-20 | Annual |
| 2014-02-27 | $2.44 | 2014-03-03 | 2014-04-10 | Annual |
| 2013-02-26 | $2.27 | 2013-02-28 | 2013-04-05 | Annual |
| 2012-02-27 | $2.20 | 2012-02-29 | 2012-04-05 | Annual |
| 2011-02-24 | $2.11 | 2011-02-28 | 2011-04-08 | Annual |
| 2010-03-02 | $1.78 | 2010-03-04 | 2010-04-13 | Annual |
| 2009-02-24 | $1.54 | 2009-02-26 | 2009-04-06 | Annual |
| 2008-02-26 | $1.32 | 2008-02-28 | 2008-04-11 | Annual |
| 2007-03-06 | $0.97 | 2007-03-08 | 2007-04-10 | Annual |
| 2006-02-28 | $0.80 | 2006-03-02 | 2006-04-03 | Annual |
| 2005-03-01 | $0.86 | 2005-03-03 | 2005-04-06 | Annual |
| 2004-02-24 | $0.72 | 2004-02-26 | 2004-03-30 | Annual |
| 2003-03-04 | $0.63 | 2003-03-06 | 2003-04-07 | Annual |
| 2002-03-21 | $0.47 | 2002-03-25 | 2002-04-22 | Annual |
| 2001-03-22 | $0.45 | 2001-03-26 | 2001-04-20 | Annual |
| 2000-11-14 | $0.97 | — | — | Semi-Annual |
| 2000-04-12 | $0.40 | 2000-04-14 | 2000-05-11 | Annual |
| 1999-04-21 | $0.48 | 1999-04-23 | 1999-05-24 | Annual |
| 1998-04-21 | $0.42 | 1998-04-23 | 1998-05-19 | Annual |
| 1997-04-16 | $0.34 | 1997-04-18 | 1997-05-15 | Annual |
| 1997-02-26 | $1.53 | 1997-02-25 | 1997-03-19 | Irregular |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | |||||
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.68K, holders +34 vs prior quarter. Ownership 7.15%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 15.52M | 1.64M | +11.79% | 2.43B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 8.73M | 199.79K | +2.34% | 1.37B |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 8.12M | 7.47K | +0.09% | 1.27B |
| PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/ | 6.59M | -975.23K | -12.89% | 1.03B |
| LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P | 5.24M | -186.79K | -3.44% | 821.10M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 4.91M | -52.86K | -1.07% | 769.49M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 3.25M | -158.66K | -4.65% | 509.54M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 3.05M | 98.23K | +3.33% | 477.68M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 2.98M | -3.55M | -54.33% | 467.05M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 2.79M | 6.52K | +0.23% | 437.68M |
| NATIXIS ADVISORS, LLC | 2.39M | 150.37K | +6.72% | 374.02M |
| ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 2.33M | 19.59K | +0.85% | 365.31M |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 2.26M | 459.77K | +25.48% | 356.85M |
| JUPITER TOPCO LLC | 2.22M | 2.22M | New | 348.13M |
| GQG PARTNERS LLC | 2.15M | -296.14K | -12.10% | 337.13M |
| LMR PARTNERS LLP | 2.13M | 828.70K | +63.56% | 334.21M |
| FMR LLC | 2.06M | 364.41K | +21.52% | 322.44M |
| CULLEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 2.03M | -4.92K | -0.24% | 318.62M |
| JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP | 1.97M | 152.25K | +8.36% | 306.81M |
| WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.90M | 441.17K | +30.15% | 300.11M |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | 1.83M | -66.86K | -3.53% | 286.61M |
| RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC | 1.80M | -130.54K | -6.76% | 282.31M |
| PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC | 1.57M | 33.01K | +2.15% | 245.39M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 1.18M | -608.73K | -33.95% | 185.62M |
| HOLOCENE ADVISORS, LP | 1.04M | 1.04M | New | 162.57M |
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