Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PAG price $212.17 +0.22 +0.10%

Ticker
PAG
Price
$212.17
Change
+0.22 +0.10%
Market cap ?
$13.93B
P/E ?
15.46
Forward P/E ?
15.94
Dividend yield ?
2.66%
Beta ?
0.91
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto - Dealerships
Stocklytics score
33
Value
44
Quality
29
Growth
26

Stocklytics score rationale: value 44, quality 29, growth 26.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
20118500000213869000002278510000023179400000204439000002555470000027814800000309165000003186480000031808500000

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is a comprehensive transportation services enterprise, primarily involved in running automotive and commercial truck dealerships. Its business activities are organized into four main segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. The company operates a network of automotive dealerships under franchise agreements with various vehicle…

Fair value

PAG fair value $105.60. Price $212.17. Price is 101% above fair value.

Above fair value, and more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 96% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 592.10M. Growth 4.53%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 9.31% (beta 0.9). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 65.66M. Net debt 8.76B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Model uncertainty high for this stock

Compare PAG

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-02-10—3.29—8.16B
2026-10-283.433.378.42B8.14B
2026-07-293.623.428.51B7.98B
2026-04-293.052.917.86B7.71B
2026-02-112.913.197.77B7.63B
2025-10-293.233.487.70B7.62B
2025-07-313.78—7.66B—
2025-04-303.393.287.60B7.73B
2025-02-133.543.377.72B7.66B
2024-10-293.363.487.59B7.65B
2024-07-313.613.397.70B7.59B
2024-04-303.213.357.45B7.52B
2024-02-073.453.697.27B7.21B
2023-10-253.924.047.45B7.26B
2023-07-264.414.197.47B7.10B
2023-04-264.314.137.34B6.99B
2023-02-084.213.957.01B6.42B
2022-10-264.614.386.92B6.79B
2022-07-274.934.476.91B7.01B
2022-04-274.763.776.98B6.34B
2022-02-093.993.716.30B6.21B
2021-10-274.473.546.50B6.93B
2021-07-284.472.916.99B6.87B
2021-04-282.261.815.77B5.55B
2021-02-102.492.135.81B5.75B
2020-10-223.071.655.97B4.64B
2020-07-290.560.553.65B3.59B
2020-05-060.630.695.01B5.40B
2020-02-051.251.215.89B5.70B
2019-10-291.421.415.97B5.93B
2019-07-301.421.565.76B6.32B
2019-04-251.251.235.56B5.75B
2019-02-071.111.175.44B5.73B
2018-10-251.401.365.66B5.50B
2018-07-261.581.445.94B5.41B
2018-04-251.251.135.75B5.20B
2018-02-081.011.005.40B5.34B
2017-10-251.101.085.52B5.42B
2017-07-271.231.215.38B5.30B
2017-04-260.970.965.08B5.03B

Dividends

Yield 2.66%. Payout ratio 38.63%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 88/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 39% of earnings. Dividends use a moderate share of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 22 separate years. Yield is 2.7%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-11-13$1.462026-11-132026-12-01Quarterly
2026-08-14$1.442026-08-142026-09-01Quarterly
2026-05-26$1.422026-05-262026-06-03Quarterly
2026-02-25$1.402026-02-252026-03-05Quarterly
2025-11-14$1.382025-11-142025-12-02Quarterly
2025-08-15$1.322025-08-152025-09-03Quarterly
2025-05-27$1.262025-05-272025-06-03Quarterly
2025-02-24$1.222025-02-242025-03-06Quarterly
2024-11-15$1.192024-11-152024-12-03Quarterly
2024-08-15$1.072024-08-152024-09-04Quarterly
2024-05-17$0.962024-05-202024-06-04Quarterly
2024-02-14$0.872024-02-152024-03-01Quarterly
2023-11-09$0.792023-11-102023-12-01Quarterly
2023-08-09$0.722023-08-102023-09-01Quarterly
2023-05-19$0.662023-05-222023-06-01Quarterly
2023-02-09$0.612023-02-102023-03-01Quarterly
2022-11-09$0.572022-11-102022-12-01Quarterly
2022-08-09$0.532022-08-102022-09-01Quarterly
2022-05-20$0.502022-05-232022-06-01Quarterly
2022-02-09$0.472022-02-102022-03-01Quarterly
2021-11-09$0.462021-11-102021-12-01Quarterly
2021-08-09$0.452021-08-102021-09-01Quarterly
2021-05-21$0.442021-05-242021-06-02Quarterly
2021-02-09$0.432021-02-102021-03-01Quarterly
2020-11-09$0.422020-11-102020-12-01Semi-Annual
2020-02-21$0.422020-02-242020-03-03Semi-Annual
2019-11-07$0.412019-11-082019-12-03Quarterly
2019-08-08$0.402019-08-092019-09-04Quarterly
2019-05-17$0.392019-05-202019-06-04Quarterly
2019-02-08$0.382019-02-112019-03-01Quarterly
2018-11-08$0.372018-11-122018-12-04Quarterly
2018-08-09$0.362018-08-102018-09-05Quarterly
2018-05-18$0.352018-05-212018-06-01Quarterly
2018-02-09$0.342018-02-122018-03-01Quarterly
2017-11-09$0.332017-11-102017-12-01Quarterly
2017-08-08$0.322017-08-102017-09-01Quarterly
2017-05-18$0.312017-05-222017-06-01Quarterly
2017-02-15$0.302017-02-202017-03-01Quarterly
2016-11-08$0.292016-11-102016-12-01Quarterly
2016-08-08$0.282016-08-102016-09-01Quarterly
2016-05-12$0.272016-05-162016-06-01Quarterly
2016-02-08$0.262016-02-102016-03-01Quarterly
2015-11-06$0.252015-11-102015-12-01Quarterly
2015-08-06$0.242015-08-102015-09-01Quarterly
2015-05-13$0.232015-05-152015-06-01Quarterly
2015-02-06$0.222015-02-102015-03-02Quarterly
2014-11-06$0.212014-11-102014-12-01Quarterly
2014-08-07$0.202014-08-112014-09-02Quarterly
2014-05-08$0.192014-05-122014-06-02Quarterly
2014-02-06$0.182014-02-102014-03-03Quarterly
2013-11-06$0.172013-11-112013-12-02Quarterly
2013-08-08$0.162013-08-122013-09-03Quarterly
2013-05-16$0.152013-05-202013-06-03Quarterly
2013-02-07$0.142013-02-112013-03-01Quarterly
2012-11-07$0.132012-11-122012-12-03Quarterly
2012-08-08$0.122012-08-102012-09-04Quarterly
2012-05-08$0.112012-05-102012-06-01Quarterly
2012-02-08$0.102012-02-102012-03-01Quarterly
2011-11-09$0.092011-11-142011-12-01Quarterly
2011-08-08$0.082011-08-102011-09-01Quarterly
2011-05-18$0.072011-05-202011-06-03Annual
2008-11-06$0.092008-11-102008-12-01Quarterly
2008-08-07$0.092008-08-112008-09-02Quarterly
2008-05-08$0.092008-05-122008-06-02Quarterly
2008-02-07$0.092008-02-112008-03-03Quarterly
2007-11-07$0.092007-11-122007-12-03Quarterly
2007-08-08$0.072007-08-102007-09-04Quarterly
2007-05-09$0.072007-05-112007-06-01Quarterly
2007-02-08$0.072007-02-122007-03-01Quarterly
2006-11-08$0.072006-11-102006-12-01Quarterly
2006-08-08$0.072006-08-102006-09-01Quarterly
2006-05-09$0.072006-05-112006-06-01Quarterly
2006-02-08$0.062006-02-102006-03-01Quarterly
2005-11-08$0.062005-11-102005-12-01Quarterly
2005-08-08$0.062005-08-102005-09-01Quarterly
2005-05-06$0.062005-05-102005-06-01Quarterly
2005-02-08$0.062005-02-102005-03-01Quarterly
2004-11-08$0.062004-11-102004-12-01Quarterly
2004-08-05$0.052004-08-092004-09-01Quarterly
2004-05-06$0.052004-05-102004-06-01Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-09-01Davis Lisa AnnBuy170——
2026-09-01Duerheimer WolfgangBuy158——
2026-09-01Pierce Sandra E.Buy80——
2026-09-01Hoogendoorn DavidBuy10——
2026-09-01SCOTT RAYMOND EBuy10——
2026-09-01SMITH GREG CBuy144——
2026-06-03Davis Lisa AnnBuy209——
2026-06-03Hoogendoorn DavidBuy12——
2026-06-03Pierce Sandra E.Buy98——
2026-06-03Duerheimer WolfgangBuy195——
2026-06-03SMITH GREG CBuy178——
2026-06-03SCOTT RAYMOND EBuy12——
2026-05-18SMITH GREG CSell1.49K$160.02238.11K
2026-03-05Hoogendoorn DavidBuy13——
2026-03-05SMITH GREG CBuy190——
2026-03-05Pierce Sandra E.Buy105——
2026-03-05SCOTT RAYMOND EBuy13——
2026-03-05MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy534——
2026-03-05Davis Lisa AnnBuy223——
2026-03-05Duerheimer WolfgangBuy208——
2026-02-25Spradlin Shane M.Buy4.99K——
2026-02-25Denker Claude H IIIBuy4.99K——
2026-02-25KURNICK ROBERT H JRBuy9.98K——
2026-02-25PENSKE ROGER SBuy39.94K——
2026-02-25Hulgrave MichelleBuy4.99K——
2026-02-25Denker Claude H IIIBuy4.99K——
2026-02-25Hulgrave MichelleBuy4.99K——
2026-02-25Spradlin Shane M.Buy4.99K——
2026-02-25KURNICK ROBERT H JRBuy9.99K——
2026-02-25PENSKE ROGER SBuy39.95K——
2025-12-16EISENSON MICHAEL RBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16Pierce Sandra E.Buy1.49K——
2025-12-16Davis Lisa AnnBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16SMITH GREG CBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16THOMPSON H BRIANBuy1.80K——
2025-12-16PENSKE GREGORY WBuy1.36K——
2025-12-16SCOTT RAYMOND EBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16Duerheimer WolfgangBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16Hoogendoorn DavidBuy1.49K——
2025-12-16MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy1.49K——
2025-12-02SMITH GREG CBuy182——
2025-12-02Pierce Sandra E.Buy100——
2025-12-02MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy498——
2025-12-02Davis Lisa AnnBuy214——
2025-12-02Duerheimer WolfgangBuy187——
2025-11-24Hulgrave MichelleSell2.10K$160.17336.35K
2025-11-21KURNICK ROBERT H JRSell943——
2025-09-03MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy415——
2025-09-03Duerheimer WolfgangBuy155——
2025-09-03Davis Lisa AnnBuy178——
2025-09-03SMITH GREG CBuy151——
2025-09-03Pierce Sandra E.Buy84——
2025-08-29Pierce Sandra E.Sell1.60K$187.05300.03K
2025-08-19Hulgrave MichelleSell1.10K$182.55200.81K
2025-08-18Davis Lisa AnnSell1.60K$180.74289.91K
2025-08-13Spradlin Shane M.Sell3.00K$184.30552.90K
2025-06-09Spradlin Shane M.Sell3.16K$167.10527.70K
2025-06-03MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy441——
2025-06-03Pierce Sandra E.Buy89——
2025-06-03SMITH GREG CBuy161——
2025-06-03SMITH GREG CSell1.53K$161.64247.15K
2025-06-03Duerheimer WolfgangBuy165——
2025-06-03Davis Lisa AnnBuy189——
2025-06-03PENSKE ROGER SSell77.36K$161.3712.48M
2025-06-02PENSKE ROGER SSell20.10K$159.803.21M
2025-06-02KURNICK ROBERT H JRSell11.36K$160.111.82M
2025-06-02Hulgrave MichelleSell1.50K$163.08244.62K
2025-06-01Spradlin Shane M.Sell4.85K$164.18796.60K
2025-06-01PENSKE ROGER SSell44.18K$164.187.25M
2025-06-01KURNICK ROBERT H JRSell8.78K$164.181.44M
2025-06-01Hulgrave MichelleSell2.04K$164.18335.26K
2025-06-01Denker Claude H IIISell4.54K$164.18745.21K
2025-05-14SCOTT RAYMOND EOther0——
2025-05-14Kawakami YosukeOther0——
2025-05-14Hoogendoorn DavidOther0——
2025-03-13BARR JOHNSell1.53K$155.45237.68K
2025-03-06SMITH GREG CBuy151——
2025-03-06Davis Lisa AnnBuy178——
2025-03-06Pierce Sandra E.Buy84——
2025-03-06Duerheimer WolfgangBuy156——
2025-03-06BARR JOHNBuy273——
2025-03-06MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy416——
2025-02-19Hulgrave MichelleBuy4.29K——
2025-02-19Spradlin Shane M.Buy4.29K——
2025-02-19KURNICK ROBERT H JRBuy8.59K——
2025-02-19PENSKE ROGER SBuy34.36K——
2025-02-19Denker Claude H IIIBuy4.29K——
2025-02-14Denker Claude H IIISell8.75K$173.031.51M
2025-02-14KURNICK ROBERT H JRSell1.44K——
2024-12-11Davis Lisa AnnBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11THOMPSON H BRIANBuy1.85K——
2024-12-11SMITH GREG CBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11STEINHART RONALD GBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11Pierce Sandra E.Buy1.53K——
2024-12-11PENSKE GREGORY WBuy2.32K——
2024-12-11MCWATERS KIMBERLY JBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11EISENSON MICHAEL RBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11Duerheimer WolfgangBuy1.53K——
2024-12-11BARR JOHNBuy1.53K——
2024-12-03Pierce Sandra E.Buy81——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 407, holders +22 vs prior quarter. Ownership 29.15%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.2.33M-68.12K-2.84%417.52M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP1.65M200.17K+13.82%294.93M
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC1.64M-11.67K-0.71%293.90M
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/825.39K1.06K+0.13%147.70M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC796.55K-19.59K-2.40%142.54M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC764.30K6.35K+0.84%136.77M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT678.53K-46.20K-6.37%121.42M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.631.65K631.65KNew113.03M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC631.65K59.35K+10.37%113.03M
STATE STREET CORP625.21K-10.46K-1.64%111.88M
MORGAN STANLEY584.75K7.08K+1.23%104.64M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC456.04K-3.59K-0.78%81.61M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/441.83K-21.95K-4.73%79.07M
GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL394.39K-608-0.15%70.58M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC385.75K40.98K+11.89%69.03M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP379.00K-9.98K-2.57%67.82M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC355.16K1.18K+0.33%63.57M
BAHL & GAYNOR LLC264.80K129.39K+95.55%47.39M
UBS GROUP AG245.49K69.67K+39.62%43.93M
INVESCO LTD.241.29K38.31K+18.87%43.18M
NORGES BANK200.57K200.57KNew35.89M
BRUNI J V & CO /CO171.99K-3.22K-1.84%30.78M
PRIVATE MANAGEMENT GROUP INC170.50K-1.26K-0.73%30.51M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC168.78K121.01K+253.32%30.20M
FMR LLC152.62K6.01K+4.10%27.31M

Forecast

Consensus Hold from 10 analysts. Average price target $210.50, -0.8% versus the current price. Low $210.00. High $212.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $210.50 for Penske Automotive Group (PAG), 0.8% below the current price of $212.16. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Hold.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

PAG price target

12-month price target
Low$210.00
Average$210.50
High$212.00

The average is 0.8% below the current price of $212.16.

Is Penske Automotive Group a buy or sell?

Of 10 analysts, 2 rate Penske Automotive Group Buy or Strong Buy, 8 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Hold. That split is not a recommendation.

Penske Automotive Group earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $13.31, revenue $32.68 billion. 2027, EPS $14.01, revenue $33.50 billion.

PAG score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for PAG is 33 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

PAG forecast FAQs

What is the PAG price target?

$210.50 average, with a published range of $210.00 to $212.00.

Is Penske Automotive Group a buy or sell?

The consensus is Hold from 10 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the Penske Automotive Group stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $13.31. The average revenue estimate is $32.68 billion.

What will PAG be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is Penske Automotive Group's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PAG$212.17+0.22 +0.10%

$13.93B

Market Cap

15.46

P/E

15.94

Forward P/E

33

Score

Price History