PDD Stock Insights
PDD$77.47-0.94 -1.19%
$110.26B
Market Cap
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P/E
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Forward P/E
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Score
PDD Stock Insights
PDD price $77.47 -0.94 -1.19%
- Ticker
- PDD
- Price
- $77.47
- Change
- -0.94 -1.19%
- Market cap ?
- $110.26B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
PDD Holdings, Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company aims to bring more businesses and people into the digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from increased productivity and new opportunities. It has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities, that support its underlying businesses. PDD…
Fair value
PDD fair value $1,596.88. Price $77.47. Price is 95% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 69% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 111.90B. Growth 7.35%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 10.00%. Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.42B. Net debt -177.47B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-18 | — | 2.77 | — | 17.25B |
| 2026-08-24 | 2.85 | 2.72 | 16.54B | 16.94B |
| 2026-05-27 | 1.38 | 2.40 | 15.40B | 15.92B |
| 2026-03-25 | 2.53 | 2.98 | 17.71B | 17.80B |
| 2025-11-18 | 2.96 | 2.21 | 15.21B | 17.57B |
| 2025-08-25 | 3.08 | 1.91 | 14.50B | 15.09B |
| 2025-05-27 | 1.56 | 2.49 | 13.14B | 14.30B |
| 2025-03-20 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 15.15B | 14.31B |
| 2024-11-21 | 2.65 | 2.76 | 14.15B | 14.52B |
| 2024-08-26 | 3.20 | 2.89 | 13.36B | 14.09B |
| 2024-05-22 | 2.83 | 1.60 | 12.00B | 13.59B |
| 2024-03-20 | 2.40 | 1.59 | 12.55B | 10.32B |
| 2023-11-28 | 1.55 | 1.23 | 9.42B | 7.68B |
| 2023-08-29 | 1.44 | 1.12 | 7.22B | 5.86B |
| 2023-05-26 | 1.01 | 0.67 | 5.47B | 4.55B |
| 2023-03-20 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 5.82B | 6.17B |
| 2022-11-28 | 1.21 | 0.73 | 4.97B | 4.32B |
| 2022-08-29 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 4.69B | 3.57B |
| 2022-05-27 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 3.74B | 3.22B |
| 2022-03-21 | 0.92 | 0.20 | 4.28B | 4.69B |
| 2021-11-26 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 3.33B | 4.98B |
| 2021-08-24 | 0.44 | -0.15 | 3.56B | 4.10B |
| 2021-05-26 | -0.36 | -0.68 | 3.38B | 3.10B |
| 2021-03-17 | -0.17 | -0.14 | 4.07B | 2.97B |
| 2020-11-12 | -0.10 | -0.24 | 2.09B | 2.05B |
| 2020-08-21 | -0.11 | -0.18 | 1.73B | 6.50B |
| 2020-05-22 | -0.50 | -0.34 | 922.53M | 4.72B |
| 2020-03-11 | -0.20 | -0.26 | 1.57B | 1.98B |
| 2019-11-20 | -0.28 | -0.11 | 1.05B | 2.77B |
| 2019-08-21 | -0.04 | -0.25 | 1.06B | 1.17B |
| 2019-05-20 | -0.24 | -0.28 | 675.96M | 901.47M |
| 2019-03-13 | -0.24 | -0.29 | 863.60M | 543.84M |
| 2018-11-20 | -0.08 | -1.68 | 490.32M | 416.59M |
| 2018-08-30 | -0.20 | — | 409.11M | — |
| 2018-03-31 | -0.03 | — | 220.25M | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 0.00 | — | 179.03M | — |
| 2017-09-30 | -0.04 | — | 63.57M | — |
| 2017-06-30 | -0.02 | — | 15.39M | — |
| 2017-03-31 | -0.04 | — | 5.37M | — |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Sell | 1.71K | $82.20 | 140.15K |
| 2026-09-01 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Buy | 1.71K | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Sell | 485 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Buy | 391 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Sell | 1.22K | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Buy | 1.58K | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Sell | 539 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Buy | 423 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Sell | 1.04K | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | Zhao Jiazhen | Buy | 50.00K | $0.03 | 1.30K |
| 2026-07-01 | Wang Mi | Buy | 40.00K | $0.03 | 1.04K |
| 2026-03-30 | Rietjens Ivonne MCM | Sell | 560 | $99.59 | 55.77K |
| 2026-03-30 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Sell | 1.53K | $99.43 | 152.42K |
| 2026-03-18 | Li Jiong | Other | 6.96K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Lin Haifeng | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Lin Haifeng | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Other | 334 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Zhao Jiazhen | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Zhao Jiazhen | Other | 50.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Xiao Junyun | Other | 1.88M | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Rietjens Ivonne MCM | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Rietjens Ivonne MCM | Other | 337 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Yeo George Yong-Boon | Other | 329 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Wang Mi | Other | 100.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Zheng Zhenwei | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Zheng Zhenwei | Other | 1.18M | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Liu Jun | Other | 10.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Chen Lei (LC) | Other | 13.00M | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 589, holders -54 vs prior quarter. Ownership 30.80%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 31.97M | -7.44M | -18.87% | 2.44B |
| BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO | 26.59M | -1.76M | -6.20% | 2.03B |
| H&H INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT, LLC | 25.02M | 5.27M | +26.71% | 1.91B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 24.65M | 520.60K | +2.16% | 1.88B |
| INVESCO LTD. | 22.23M | 8.21M | +58.57% | 1.70B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 20.42M | 16.81M | +465.76% | 1.56B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 14.16M | 10.55M | +292.41% | 1.08B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 14.01M | 11.36M | +429.16% | 1.07B |
| HSG HOLDING LTD | 11.35M | 0 | 0.00% | 865.66M |
| HIMALAYA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 10.76M | 6.15M | +133.53% | 820.86M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 10.30M | -1.73M | -14.38% | 785.94M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 9.97M | 8.47M | +562.11% | 760.82M |
| NETEASE, INC. | 9.57M | 700.00K | +7.89% | 729.73M |
| FIRST BEIJING INVESTMENT LTD | 9.38M | 1.23M | +15.07% | 715.31M |
| NORGES BANK | 9.34M | 9.34M | New | 712.31M |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | 8.84M | 0 | 0.00% | 674.44M |
| UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC | 8.73M | 143.22K | +1.67% | 665.64M |
| SANDERS CAPITAL, LLC | 7.94M | -155.08K | -1.92% | 605.41M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 6.66M | 138.20K | +2.12% | 507.87M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 6.64M | -213.67K | -3.12% | 504.12M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 6.47M | 5.57M | +622.82% | 493.24M |
| FIL LTD | 6.29M | -556.58K | -8.13% | 480.01M |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 6.02M | -1.89M | -23.93% | 460.59M |
| KRANE FUNDS ADVISORS LLC | 5.78M | 47.14K | +0.82% | 440.92M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 5.64M | 3.13M | +125.29% | 429.89M |
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