Penumbra (PEN) Stock Forecast & Price Target
PEN$320.79+2.48 +0.78%
$12.64B
Market Cap
79.23
P/E
67.51
Forward P/E
45
Score
Penumbra (PEN) Stock Forecast & Price Target
PEN price $320.79 +2.48 +0.78%
- Ticker
- PEN
- Price
- $320.79
- Change
- +2.48 +0.78%
- Market cap ?
- $12.64B
- P/E ?
- 79.23
- Forward P/E ?
- 67.51
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 0.70
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Devices
- Stocklytics score
- 45
- Value
- 15
- Quality
- 69
- Growth
- 52
Stocklytics score rationale: value 15, quality 69, growth 52.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 263317000 | 333764000 | 444938000 | 547405000 | 560412000 | 747590000 | 847133000 | 1058522000 | 1194615000 | 1403665000 |
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. It offers computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy; peripheral thrombectomy products, including the Indigo System for power aspiration of thrombus in the body; Lightning Flash, a mechanical thrombectomy system; Lightning Bolt 7, an arterial thrombectomy system; and CAT…
Fair value
PEN fair value $167.62. Price $320.79. Price is 91% above fair value.
Above fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 80% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 134.78M. Growth 16.55%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 39.39M. Net debt 32.80M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | — | 1.20 | — | 401.41M |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.88 | 1.16 | 390.05M | 389.64M |
| 2026-05-06 | 0.82 | 1.04 | 374.76M | 370.47M |
| 2026-02-25 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 385.38M | 361.87M |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 354.69M | 340.95M |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 339.45M | 341.35M |
| 2025-04-23 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 324.14M | 327.28M |
| 2025-02-18 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 315.52M | 311.63M |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 301.04M | 311.57M |
| 2024-07-30 | 0.64 | 0.56 | 299.40M | 298.36M |
| 2024-05-07 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 278.65M | 274.89M |
| 2024-02-22 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 284.68M | 286.56M |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 270.95M | 265.26M |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 261.50M | 253.22M |
| 2023-05-02 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 241.40M | 229.73M |
| 2023-02-23 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 221.22M | 217.33M |
| 2022-11-03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 213.68M | 212.49M |
| 2022-08-04 | 0.01 | -0.07 | 208.34M | 206.24M |
| 2022-05-03 | -0.01 | 0.06 | 203.90M | 195.39M |
| 2022-02-22 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 204.01M | 194.29M |
| 2021-11-03 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 190.12M | 217.28M |
| 2021-08-09 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 184.26M | 170.76M |
| 2021-05-04 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 169.20M | 152.70M |
| 2021-02-23 | 0.42 | -0.08 | 166.90M | — |
| 2020-10-28 | 0.06 | -0.13 | 151.08M | 201.43M |
| 2020-08-03 | -0.30 | -0.48 | 105.11M | 136.64M |
| 2020-05-07 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 137.33M | 208.53M |
| 2020-02-25 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 145.26M | 132.06M |
| 2019-11-07 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 139.50M | 89.28M |
| 2019-08-06 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 134.20M | 109.35M |
| 2019-05-07 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 128.44M | 110.04M |
| 2019-02-26 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 120.79M | 111.50M |
| 2018-11-05 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 111.81M | 26.31M |
| 2018-08-07 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 109.64M | 21.93M |
| 2018-05-08 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 102.70M | 34.23M |
| 2018-02-27 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 96.05M | 1.41M |
| 2017-11-07 | 0.01 | -0.07 | 83.91M | 251.73M |
| 2017-08-08 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 80.59M | 66.49M |
| 2017-05-09 | -0.10 | -0.06 | 73.21M | 36.61M |
| 2017-02-28 | -0.08 | -0.12 | 73.11M | 82.24M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 1.37K | $321.20 | 439.08K |
| 2026-09-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 1.23K | $318.43 | 391.67K |
| 2026-08-17 | Narayan Shruthi | Buy | 3.06K | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 77.00K | — | — |
| 2026-04-02 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 100 | $328.22 | 32.82K |
| 2026-03-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 117 | $336.18 | 39.33K |
| 2026-03-15 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 186 | $336.18 | 62.53K |
| 2026-03-15 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 186 | $336.18 | 62.53K |
| 2026-03-15 | Shiu Lambert | Sell | 150 | $336.18 | 50.43K |
| 2026-03-02 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 2.43K | $342.30 | 832.47K |
| 2026-02-17 | Roberts Johanna | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | Yuen Maggie | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | Shiu Lambert | Buy | 2.30K | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | Narayan Shruthi | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 482 | $339.30 | 163.54K |
| 2026-02-15 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 481 | $339.30 | 163.20K |
| 2026-02-15 | Shiu Lambert | Sell | 412 | $339.30 | 139.79K |
| 2026-02-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 705 | $339.30 | 239.21K |
| 2026-02-13 | Grewal Harpreet | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Bose Arani | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Leeds Janet | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | O'Rourke Bridget | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Sarna Surbhi | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Wilder Thomas | Buy | 589 | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Roberts Johanna | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Yuen Maggie | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Shiu Lambert | Buy | 2.30K | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Narayan Shruthi | Buy | 2.63K | — | — |
| 2026-01-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 286 | $350.49 | 100.24K |
| 2026-01-06 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 186 | $312.64 | 58.15K |
| 2026-01-02 | Wilder Thomas | Sell | 186 | $310.72 | 57.79K |
| 2025-12-15 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 565 | $309.15 | 174.67K |
| 2025-12-15 | Shiu Lambert | Sell | 300 | $309.15 | 92.75K |
| 2025-12-15 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 1.13K | $309.15 | 349.34K |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 2.03K | $305.19 | 619.54K |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 4.95K | $306.60 | 1.52M |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 520 | $307.10 | 159.69K |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 4 | $308.00 | 1.23K |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 2.08K | $310.50 | 646.46K |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 3.52K | $311.47 | 1.10M |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | Sell | 1.90K | $312.20 | 591.62K |
| 2025-12-05 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 300 | $300.13 | 90.04K |
| 2025-12-02 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 100 | $292.98 | 29.30K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 94 | $292.09 | 27.46K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 39 | $293.27 | 11.44K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 155 | $294.52 | 45.65K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 144 | $295.38 | 42.53K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 80 | $296.27 | 23.70K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 78 | $297.50 | 23.20K |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 10 | $298.02 | 2.98K |
| 2025-11-26 | Bose Arani | Sell | 1.80K | — | — |
| 2025-11-25 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 1.80K | $300.06 | 540.11K |
| 2025-11-25 | Bose Arani | Sell | 7.50K | $300.19 | 2.25M |
| 2025-11-21 | Bose Arani | Sell | 7.34K | $290.55 | 2.13M |
| 2025-11-21 | Bose Arani | Sell | 162 | $291.09 | 47.16K |
| 2025-11-17 | Yuen Maggie | Buy | 3.58K | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | Shiu Lambert | Buy | 3.58K | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | Roberts Johanna | Buy | 3.58K | — | — |
| 2025-11-15 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 364 | $280.07 | 101.95K |
| 2025-11-15 | Yuen Maggie | Sell | 327 | $280.07 | 91.58K |
| 2025-11-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 358 | $280.07 | 100.27K |
| 2025-11-15 | Shiu Lambert | Sell | 346 | $280.07 | 96.90K |
| 2025-11-15 | Shiu Lambert | Sell | 506 | $280.07 | 141.72K |
| 2025-11-15 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 156 | $280.07 | 43.69K |
| 2025-11-15 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 545 | $280.07 | 152.64K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 11 | $263.58 | 2.90K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 13 | $264.89 | 3.44K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 168 | $265.93 | 44.68K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 211 | $266.72 | 56.28K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 85 | $267.56 | 22.74K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 76 | $269.01 | 20.44K |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 36 | $269.56 | 9.70K |
| 2025-11-04 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 186 | $227.58 | 42.33K |
| 2025-10-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Sell | 1.29K | $252.61 | 326.88K |
| 2025-10-02 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 186 | $248.61 | 46.24K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 24 | $243.61 | 5.85K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 32 | $244.93 | 7.84K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 35 | $245.68 | 8.60K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 35 | $246.93 | 8.64K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 125 | $247.79 | 30.97K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 23 | $248.67 | 5.72K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 14 | $249.71 | 3.50K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 66 | $250.84 | 16.56K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 144 | $251.81 | 36.26K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 41 | $252.36 | 10.35K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 20 | $254.05 | 5.08K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 36 | $254.96 | 9.18K |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 5 | $256.63 | 1.28K |
| 2025-10-01 | Wilder Thomas | Sell | 186 | $253.93 | 47.23K |
| 2025-09-15 | Narayan Shruthi | Buy | 9.17K | — | — |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Buy | 27.98K | $30.00 | 839.40K |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 2.35K | $268.41 | 631.03K |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 4.67K | $269.26 | 1.26M |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 7.58K | $270.09 | 2.05M |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 1.20K | $270.81 | 324.97K |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | Sell | 27.98K | $30.00 | 839.40K |
| 2025-09-02 | Grewal Harpreet | Sell | 186 | $272.19 | 50.63K |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 222 | $269.20 | 59.76K |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 152 | $270.19 | 41.07K |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | Sell | 61 | $271.22 | 16.54K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 476, holders -24 vs prior quarter. Ownership 87.80%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 4.30M | -32.90K | -0.76% | 1.36B |
| HBK INVESTMENTS L P | 1.84M | 204.25K | +12.50% | 580.51M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.71M | 15.39K | +0.91% | 539.89M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.67M | 12.80K | +0.77% | 526.44M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 1.24M | 57.45K | +4.84% | 392.56M |
| EXODUSPOINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | 1.09M | 625.22K | +134.39% | 344.30M |
| BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | 1.09M | 328.07K | +43.05% | 344.22M |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 1.07M | 668.84K | +166.12% | 338.56M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 847.10K | 126.53K | +17.56% | 267.47M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 834.90K | 434.74K | +108.64% | 263.62M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 796.47K | 1.02K | +0.13% | 251.55M |
| NORGES BANK | 752.24K | 752.24K | New | 237.52M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 703.82K | 143.49K | +25.61% | 222.23M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | 700.61K | -397.52K | -36.20% | 221.22M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 591.82K | 190.47K | +47.46% | 186.87M |
| AQR ARBITRAGE LLC | 563.87K | 140.80K | +33.28% | 178.04M |
| WHITEBOX ADVISORS LLC | 506.88K | 61.88K | +13.91% | 160.05M |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 479.70K | 28.89K | +6.41% | 151.47M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 448.76K | 246.04K | +121.37% | 141.70M |
| NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC | 438.55K | 134.93K | +44.44% | 138.47M |
| CITIGROUP INC | 433.12K | -187.82K | -30.25% | 136.76M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 428.13K | 369.91K | +635.38% | 135.18M |
| TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | 400.65K | -10.47K | -2.55% | 126.50M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 343.71K | 343.71K | New | 108.53M |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | 343.71K | 21.30K | +6.61% | 108.53M |
Forecast
Consensus Hold from 17 analysts. Average price target $320.00, -0.2% versus the current price. Low $320.00. High $320.00.
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