Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock Insights

RARE price $17.16 +0.41 +2.45%

Ticker
RARE
Price
$17.16
Change
+0.41 +2.45%
Market cap ?
$1.69B
Beta ?
0.32
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology

Fair value

RARE fair value $40.29. Price $17.16. Price is 57% below fair value.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 111.98M. Growth 11.79%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 98.59M. Net debt 842.00M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare RARE

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-03—-1.10—182.49M
2026-08-04-0.90-1.22214.00M183.08M
2026-05-05-1.84-1.49136.00M158.19M
2026-02-12-1.29-1.20207.00M198.60M
2025-11-04-1.81-1.23159.93M199.77M
2025-08-05-1.17-1.27166.50M165.95M
2025-05-06-1.57-1.54139.29M162.40M
2025-02-13-1.39-1.32164.88M158.71M
2024-11-05-1.40-1.45139.49M146.54M
2024-08-01-1.52-1.64147.03M123.18M
2024-05-02-2.03-1.72108.83M116.01M
2024-02-15-1.52-1.65127.39M119.38M
2023-11-02-2.23-2.0898.05M110.02M
2023-08-03-2.25-2.11108.31M104.80M
2023-05-04-2.33-1.97100.50M104.69M
2023-02-16-2.16-2.03103.35M105.11M
2022-11-02-3.50-1.8190.70M96.46M
2022-07-28-2.26-1.7289.34M87.78M
2022-05-05-2.19-1.7679.94M83.65M
2022-02-10-1.79-1.3283.39M83.80M
2021-11-02-1.08-1.4381.65M82.38M
2021-08-02-1.45-1.2886.97M86.97M
2021-05-04-2.03-1.2599.39M89.28M
2021-02-11-1.34-1.0691.54M225.67M
2020-10-27-1.13-1.2481.47M90.84M
2020-07-30-0.82-1.5661.71M231.79M
2020-05-06-2.04-1.6036.31M29.76M
2020-02-13-1.64-1.6135.59M36.25M
2019-11-05-1.96-1.7125.80M22.11M
2019-08-01-1.72-1.7324.15M23.87M
2019-05-06-1.82-1.7318.17M17.37M
2019-02-19-1.73-1.7416.26M16.82M
2018-11-05-1.74-1.9411.76M13.25M
2018-08-02-1.87-2.1012.79M25.11M
2018-05-070.62-0.6010.68M3.27M
2018-02-20-2.27-2.002.41M2.54M
2017-11-02-1.87-1.87198.00K97.48K
2017-07-27-1.72-1.73——
2017-05-04-1.63-1.70—104.91K
2017-02-16-1.75-1.745.00K4.91K

Dividends

Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.

Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
No data yet.

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-15Horn HowardSell7.07K$15.27107.90K
2026-09-15Huizenga Theodore AlanSell1.28K$13.5717.41K
2026-09-03Huizenga Theodore AlanSell161$13.992.25K
2026-08-03Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell1.90K$24.9247.35K
2026-08-03Horn HowardSell4.70K$24.92117.02K
2026-07-01Horn HowardSell4.70K$33.13155.64K
2026-06-15Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Sell2.00K$25.0550.10K
2026-06-15Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell1.90K$24.6246.75K
2026-06-01Horn HowardSell4.65K$23.77110.60K
2026-05-18SULIMAN SHEHNAAZSell5.74K$25.12144.19K
2026-05-14Fust Matthew KBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14Fust Matthew KBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14SULIMAN SHEHNAAZBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14SULIMAN SHEHNAAZBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14Ray AmritBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14Ray AmritBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Buy7.75K——
2026-05-14Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Buy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14NARACHI MICHAELBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14NARACHI MICHAELBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14WELCH DANIEL GBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14WELCH DANIEL GBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-14Dunsire DeborahBuy7.75K——
2026-05-14Dunsire DeborahBuy14.06K$25.80362.70K
2026-05-05Crombez EricSell344$24.968.59K
2026-05-01Horn HowardSell4.68K$24.90116.61K
2026-04-22Huizenga Theodore AlanBuy20.24K——
2026-04-22Huizenga Theodore AlanBuy7.35K$24.61180.83K
2026-04-16KAKKIS EMIL DBuy76.75K——
2026-04-16KAKKIS EMIL DBuy132.69K$24.523.25M
2026-04-16Huang Dennis KarlBuy23.12K——
2026-04-16Huang Dennis KarlBuy79.94K$24.521.96M
2026-04-16Pinion John RichardBuy23.12K——
2026-04-16Pinion John RichardBuy79.94K$24.521.96M
2026-04-16Parschauer Karah HerdmanBuy28.89K——
2026-04-16Parschauer Karah HerdmanBuy49.96K$24.521.23M
2026-04-16Harris ErikBuy28.89K——
2026-04-16Harris ErikBuy49.96K$24.521.23M
2026-04-16Crombez EricBuy34.67K——
2026-04-16Crombez EricBuy59.95K$24.521.47M
2026-04-16Horn HowardBuy34.67K——
2026-04-16Horn HowardBuy59.95K$24.521.47M
2026-04-01Horn HowardSell4.68K$20.9798.20K
2026-03-10Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell3.51K$22.6779.53K
2026-03-06Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell6.02K$21.40128.79K
2026-03-03Horn HowardSell1.64K$22.4036.62K
2026-03-02Pinion John RichardSell10.03K$22.80228.66K
2026-03-02Harris ErikSell10.54K$22.80240.29K
2026-03-02KAKKIS EMIL DSell54.40K$22.801.24M
2026-03-02Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell8.13K$22.80185.48K
2026-03-02Huizenga Theodore AlanSell148$23.393.46K
2026-03-02Huizenga Theodore AlanSell1.63K$22.8037.21K
2026-03-02Horn HowardSell5.29K$22.80120.61K
2026-03-02Horn HowardSell3.12K$22.5470.30K
2026-03-02Crombez EricSell7.03K$22.80160.26K
2026-03-02Huang Dennis KarlSell999$23.3923.37K
2026-03-01Pinion John RichardBuy11.14K——
2026-03-01Harris ErikBuy11.64K——
2026-03-01KAKKIS EMIL DBuy71.18K——
2026-03-01Parschauer Karah HerdmanBuy11.14K——
2026-03-01Horn HowardBuy6.14K——
2026-03-01Crombez EricBuy11.64K——
2026-03-01Huang Dennis KarlBuy11.14K——
2026-02-02Horn HowardSell3.06K$23.5672.12K
2026-01-02Horn HowardSell3.15K$22.8471.95K
2025-12-29Huizenga Theodore AlanSell85$34.382.92K
2025-12-10Horn HowardSell3.08K$36.38112.09K
2025-10-13Horn HowardSell7.94K$31.51250.25K
2025-09-18Huizenga Theodore AlanSell64$29.171.87K
2025-09-12Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell2.45K$31.1776.37K
2025-09-05Huizenga Theodore AlanSell84$31.392.64K
2025-06-20Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Sell2.40K$37.3989.92K
2025-05-15SULIMAN SHEHNAAZBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15SULIMAN SHEHNAAZBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15WELCH DANIEL GBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15WELCH DANIEL GBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Buy5.74K——
2025-05-15Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D.Buy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15NARACHI MICHAELBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15NARACHI MICHAELBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15Fust Matthew KBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15Fust Matthew KBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15Dunsire DeborahBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15Dunsire DeborahBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-15Ray AmritBuy5.74K——
2025-05-15Ray AmritBuy10.79K$34.84375.82K
2025-05-05Crombez EricSell520$39.2420.40K
2025-04-21Crombez EricSell242$35.118.50K
2025-03-06Horn HowardSell1.78K$40.4072.11K
2025-03-03Kassberg Thomas RichardSell6.03K$42.10253.78K
2025-03-03Kassberg Thomas RichardSell508$42.9221.80K
2025-03-03Parschauer Karah HerdmanSell12.85K$42.10540.82K
2025-03-03Crombez EricSell8.95K$42.10376.58K
2025-03-03Pinion John RichardSell31$42.921.33K
2025-03-03Pinion John RichardSell14.44K$42.10607.88K
2025-03-03KAKKIS EMIL DSell73.43K$42.103.09M
2025-03-03Harris ErikSell15.10K$42.10635.84K
2025-03-03Huang Dennis KarlSell1.35K$42.9257.86K
2025-03-03Huizenga Theodore AlanSell967$42.1040.71K
2025-03-03Huizenga Theodore AlanSell141$42.926.05K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 329, holders +15 vs prior quarter. Ownership 105.45%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.10.65M3.35M+45.96%355.75M
RTW INVESTMENTS, LP7.80M4.15M+113.68%260.34M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC6.79M1.40M+26.07%226.72M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.56M1.98M+43.31%214.14M
STATE STREET CORP6.16M1.14M+22.65%205.64M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC4.30M106.66K+2.55%143.46M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP3.62M1.42M+64.17%120.91M
SANDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC3.16M-56.16K-1.75%105.46M
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC2.94M1.51M+105.42%98.16M
FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC2.85M656.75K+29.97%95.09M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.58M729.44K+39.44%86.12M
BELLEVUE GROUP AG1.98M-397.23K-16.69%66.20M
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC.1.73M469.18K+37.21%57.77M
SOFINNOVA INVESTMENTS, INC.1.72M1.37M+390.72%57.35M
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.1.58M1.10M+229.17%52.76M
GW&K INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC1.48M-134.25K-8.31%49.46M
MPM BIOIMPACT LLC1.42M1.42MNew47.35M
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/1.36M552.39K+68.70%45.30M
MORGAN STANLEY1.32M-175.72K-11.71%44.24M
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP1.25M-1.39M-52.65%41.75M
VOLORIDGE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC1.24M-185.28K-12.99%41.46M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/1.15M101.91K+9.74%38.35M
CANDRIAM S.C.A.1.00M-94.34K-8.61%33.42M
ROCK SPRINGS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP967.86K-250.92K-20.59%32.32M
JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC.929.63K929.63KNew31.04M

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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock Insights

RARE$17.16+0.41 +2.45%

$1.69B

Market Cap

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P/E

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Forward P/E

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Score

Price History