RLX Technology (RLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target
RLX$1.61+0.01 +0.94%
$1.97B
Market Cap
13.40
P/E
1.89
Forward P/E
—
Score
RLX Technology (RLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target
RLX price $1.61 +0.01 +0.94%
- Ticker
- RLX
- Price
- $1.61
- Change
- +0.01 +0.94%
- Market cap ?
- $1.97B
- P/E ?
- 13.40
- Forward P/E ?
- 1.89
- Dividend yield ?
- 6.83%
- Beta ?
- 1.13
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Tobacco
Financials
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132613000 | 1549354000 | 3819712000 | 8520978000 | 5332779000 | 1244043000 | 2444523000 | 3518714191 |
RLX Technology Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates within the People's Republic of China, focusing on the entire lifecycle of electronic vapor products, from conceptualization and development to manufacturing, distribution, and direct sales. The company's offerings are made available to customers via a network of distributors who supply both dedicated RELX-branded partner stores and other independent…
Fair value
RLX fair value $21.17. Price $1.61. Price is 92% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 70% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 664.73M. Growth 18.78%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 10.53% (beta 1.1). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.22B. Net debt -5.37B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | — | 0.03 | — | 260.27M |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 148.72M | 173.99M |
| 2026-05-20 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 229.83M | 166.99M |
| 2026-03-13 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 163.17M | 154.34M |
| 2025-11-14 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 145.20M | 152.06M |
| 2025-08-22 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 110.74M | 101.17M |
| 2025-05-16 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 97.30M | 727.88M |
| 2025-03-14 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 100.83M | 104.73M |
| 2024-11-15 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 71.08M | 79.40M |
| 2024-08-16 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 86.27M | 87.81M |
| 2024-05-17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | 74.41M | 72.81M |
| 2024-03-15 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 73.65M | 66.50M |
| 2023-11-13 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 44.86M | 62.31M |
| 2023-08-18 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 52.19M | 47.69M |
| 2023-05-17 | -0.01 | — | 27.49M | 53.57M |
| 2023-03-10 | -0.03 | — | 49.66M | 78.43M |
| 2022-11-16 | 0.05 | — | 146.19M | — |
| 2022-09-21 | 0.05 | — | 333.31M | — |
| 2022-05-20 | 0.08 | — | 269.83M | 298.84M |
| 2022-03-11 | 0.06 | — | 299.03M | 283.28M |
| 2021-12-03 | 0.05 | — | 259.80M | 367.80M |
| 2021-08-20 | 0.07 | — | 392.97M | 367.80M |
| 2021-06-02 | 0.06 | — | 365.32M | — |
| 2021-03-26 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 247.93M | — |
| 2020-09-30 | 0.00 | — | 164.82M | — |
| 2020-06-30 | 0.01 | — | 100.91M | — |
| 2020-03-31 | 0.00 | — | 51.99M | — |
| 2019-12-31 | -0.00 | — | 59.55M | — |
| 2019-09-30 | 0.00 | — | 77.83M | — |
Dividends
Yield 6.19%. Payout ratio 9.35%. Frequency Semi-Annual.
Safety score 78/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 9% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 4 separate years. Yield is 6.2%, which is on the high side.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | $0.10 | 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-09 | Semi-Annual |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.01 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-26 | Semi-Annual |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.01 | 2024-12-06 | 2024-12-20 | Annual |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.01 | 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-22 | Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.50M | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.70M | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.70M | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.70M | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.70M | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | Lu Chao | Buy | 1.70M | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Wang Ying Kate | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Wang Ying Kate | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Wang Ying Kate | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Jiang Long | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Xi Youmin | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Wen Yilong | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Lu Chao | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Zhu Zhenjing | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-01-31 | Wang Ying Kate | Other | 5.99M | $0.15 | 898.01K |
| 2025-01-31 | Jiang Long | Other | 5.99M | $0.15 | 898.01K |
| 2025-01-31 | Wen Yilong | Other | 5.99M | $0.15 | 898.01K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 111, holders +4 vs prior quarter. Ownership 21.68%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIRST BEIJING INVESTMENT LTD | 59.82M | -307.83K | -0.51% | 113.66M |
| IDG CHINA VENTURE CAPITAL FUND V ASSOCIATES L.P. | 55.07M | -2.06M | -3.60% | 104.64M |
| NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 22.58M | 20.22M | +856.04% | 42.91M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 20.93M | -546.63K | -2.55% | 39.76M |
| OLP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD | 13.32M | 135.04K | +1.02% | 25.31M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 9.63M | 109.93K | +1.15% | 18.31M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 9.55M | -59.27K | -0.62% | 18.15M |
| ASPEX MANAGEMENT (HK) LTD | 7.90M | 0 | 0.00% | 15.01M |
| PERSEVERANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL | 7.36M | -135.12K | -1.80% | 13.99M |
| OASIS MANAGEMENT CO LTD. | 6.50M | 0 | 0.00% | 12.35M |
| BARCLAYS PLC | 6.05M | 0 | 0.00% | 11.49M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 6.01M | 5.72M | +1975.05% | 11.43M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 6.01M | 5.72M | +1973.54% | 11.42M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 5.65M | 28.43K | +0.51% | 10.73M |
| PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDING SA | 3.93M | 181.36K | +4.83% | 7.47M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 3.91M | -1.86M | -32.27% | 7.42M |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 3.67M | 608.51K | +19.88% | 6.96M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 2.99M | -333.68K | -10.03% | 5.69M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 2.46M | 7.45K | +0.30% | 4.67M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 2.34M | 1.72M | +273.31% | 4.45M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 2.17M | -36.32K | -1.64% | 4.13M |
| CONNOR, CLARK & LUNN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LTD. | 2.16M | -2.62K | -0.12% | 4.10M |
| CAPITOLIS LIQUID GLOBAL MARKETS LLC | 1.51M | 0 | 0.00% | 2.87M |
| VANGUARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, LTD | 1.01M | 11.37K | +1.14% | 1.92M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 862.91K | 862.91K | New | 1.64M |
Forecast
Consensus Hold from 1 analyst.
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