SAP SE (SAP) Stock Forecast & Price Target
SAP$233.25-3.68 -1.55%
$271.79B
Market Cap
—
P/E
—
Forward P/E
52
Score
SAP SE (SAP) Stock Forecast & Price Target
SAP price $233.25 -3.68 -1.55%
- Ticker
- SAP
- Price
- $233.25
- Change
- -3.68 -1.55%
- Market cap ?
- $271.79B
- Beta ?
- 0.76
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Stocklytics score
- 52
- Value
- 28
- Quality
- 76
- Growth
- 53
Stocklytics score rationale: value 28, quality 76, growth 53.
Fair value
SAP fair value $206.50. Price $233.25. Price is 13% above fair value.
Above fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 84% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 9.14B. Growth 10.97%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.17B. Net debt -149.00M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-04 | — | 2.20 | — | 12.02B |
| 2026-10-21 | 2.18 | 2.03 | 11.50B | 11.38B |
| 2026-07-23 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 11.24B | 11.30B |
| 2026-04-23 | 2.01 | 1.92 | 11.19B | 11.19B |
| 2026-01-29 | 1.89 | 1.77 | 11.55B | 11.39B |
| 2025-10-22 | 1.86 | 1.74 | 10.54B | 10.62B |
| 2025-07-22 | 1.70 | 1.63 | 10.59B | 10.52B |
| 2025-04-22 | 1.51 | 1.39 | 10.23B | 9.99B |
| 2025-01-28 | 1.46 | 1.51 | 9.78B | 9.45B |
| 2024-10-21 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 9.16B | 9.25B |
| 2024-07-22 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 8.99B | 8.92B |
| 2024-04-22 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 8.60B | 8.61B |
| 2024-01-23 | 1.41 | 1.58 | 9.23B | 9.02B |
| 2023-10-18 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 8.18B | 8.29B |
| 2023-07-20 | 1.14 | 1.26 | 8.42B | 8.40B |
| 2023-04-21 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 8.17B | 8.02B |
| 2023-01-26 | 0.99 | 1.37 | 9.16B | 9.03B |
| 2022-10-25 | 1.11 | 1.26 | 7.81B | 7.51B |
| 2022-07-21 | 0.96 | 1.08 | 7.66B | 7.59B |
| 2022-04-22 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 7.63B | 7.56B |
| 2022-01-27 | 1.86 | 1.69 | 9.05B | 8.71B |
| 2021-10-21 | 1.74 | 1.32 | 7.94B | 7.94B |
| 2021-07-21 | 1.75 | 1.23 | 7.91B | 6.71B |
| 2021-04-13 | 1.40 | 0.92 | 7.47B | 5.01B |
| 2021-01-29 | 1.69 | 1.63 | 9.25B | 7.26B |
| 2020-10-25 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 7.67B | 7.52B |
| 2020-07-27 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 7.59B | 7.19B |
| 2020-04-21 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 7.10B | 6.66B |
| 2020-01-28 | 1.82 | 1.73 | 9.12B | 9.35B |
| 2019-10-21 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 7.44B | 6.81B |
| 2019-07-18 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 7.53B | 7.45B |
| 2019-04-24 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 6.84B | 6.97B |
| 2019-01-29 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 8.88B | 8.84B |
| 2018-10-18 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 7.02B | 7.12B |
| 2018-07-19 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 6.96B | 6.21B |
| 2018-04-24 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 6.48B | 7.38B |
| 2018-01-30 | 1.77 | 1.55 | 7.98B | 6.46B |
| 2017-10-19 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 6.58B | 7.38B |
| 2017-07-20 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 6.59B | 7.38B |
| 2017-04-25 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 5.66B | 5.54B |
Dividends
Yield 1.26%. Payout ratio 35.85%. Frequency Annual.
Safety score 86/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 36% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 31 separate years. Yield is 1.3%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $2.94 | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-15 | Annual |
| 2025-05-13 | $2.63 | 2025-05-13 | 2025-05-23 | Annual |
| 2024-05-16 | $2.39 | 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-28 | Annual |
| 2023-05-12 | $2.23 | 2023-05-15 | 2023-05-22 | Annual |
| 2022-05-19 | $2.61 | 2022-05-20 | 2022-05-31 | Special |
| 2021-05-13 | $2.26 | 2021-05-14 | 2021-05-25 | Annual |
| 2020-05-21 | $1.73 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-06-02 | Annual |
| 2019-05-16 | $1.67 | 2019-05-17 | 2019-05-28 | Annual |
| 2018-05-18 | $1.65 | 2018-05-21 | 2018-05-29 | Annual |
| 2017-05-11 | $1.37 | 2017-05-15 | 2017-05-22 | Annual |
| 2016-05-10 | $1.31 | 2016-05-12 | 2016-05-20 | Annual |
| 2015-05-18 | $1.22 | 2015-05-20 | 2015-05-29 | Annual |
| 2014-05-22 | $1.37 | 2014-05-21 | 2014-05-29 | Annual |
| 2013-05-31 | $1.11 | 2013-06-04 | 2013-06-12 | Annual |
| 2012-05-21 | $1.38 | 2012-05-23 | 2012-06-01 | Annual |
| 2011-05-23 | $0.85 | 2011-05-25 | 2011-06-03 | Annual |
| 2010-06-04 | $0.60 | 2010-06-08 | 2010-06-16 | Annual |
| 2009-05-15 | $0.68 | 2009-05-19 | 2009-05-27 | Annual |
| 2008-05-30 | $0.77 | 2008-06-03 | 2008-06-11 | Annual |
| 2007-05-08 | $0.62 | 2007-05-10 | 2007-05-18 | Annual |
| 2006-05-05 | $0.46 | 2006-05-09 | 2006-05-18 | Annual |
| 2005-05-10 | $0.35 | 2005-05-12 | 2005-05-20 | Annual |
| 2004-05-04 | $0.24 | 2004-05-06 | 2004-05-17 | Annual |
| 2003-05-07 | $0.17 | 2003-05-09 | 2003-05-22 | Annual |
| 2002-05-01 | $0.13 | 2002-05-03 | 2002-05-16 | Annual |
| 2001-05-01 | $0.13 | 2001-05-03 | 2001-05-14 | Annual |
| 2000-05-03 | $0.12 | 2000-05-05 | 2000-05-18 | Annual |
| 1999-05-04 | $0.14 | 1999-05-06 | 1999-05-17 | Annual |
| 1998-05-05 | $0.13 | 1998-05-07 | 1998-05-18 | Annual |
| 1997-05-05 | $0.71 | — | — | Annual |
| 1996-06-24 | $0.64 | 1996-06-26 | 1996-07-08 | Annual |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-02-22 | SAP AG | Buy | 3.80M | $40.00 | 151.87M |
| 2012-02-22 | SAP AG | Buy | 4.52M | $40.00 | 180.77M |
| 2012-02-21 | SAP AG | Buy | 965.07K | $40.00 | 38.60M |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 865. Ownership 7.31%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 14.93M | New | New | 2.30B |
| EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 8.64M | New | New | 1.33B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 6.02M | New | New | 928.22M |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 5.68M | New | New | 876.58M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 5.48M | New | New | 843.92M |
| WINDACRE PARTNERSHIP LLC | 4.40M | New | New | 677.98M |
| HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 2.51M | New | New | 386.65M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 2.39M | New | New | 368.50M |
| FMR LLC | 1.99M | New | New | 306.98M |
| D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. | 1.45M | New | New | 223.48M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 1.25M | New | New | 192.56M |
| RUANE, CUNNIFF & GOLDFARB L.P. | 1.24M | New | New | 190.56M |
| TIDAL INVESTMENTS LLC | 1.21M | New | New | 187.14M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 1.15M | New | New | 176.73M |
| MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS LTD. | 917.38K | New | New | 141.39M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 823.53K | New | New | 126.91M |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | 791.30K | New | New | 121.95M |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 784.22K | New | New | 120.86M |
| BROWN ADVISORY INC | 715.36K | New | New | 110.24M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 680.56K | New | New | 104.88M |
| HOLOCENE ADVISORS, LP | 638.00K | New | New | 98.32M |
| CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 629.80K | New | New | 97.06M |
| BRANDES INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LP | 614.01K | New | New | 94.63M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 609.90K | New | New | 93.99M |
| ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 592.15K | New | New | 91.25M |
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