Shopify (SHOP) Stock Price & Analysis
SHOP$166.69-1.53 -0.91%
$216.31B
Market Cap
112.87
P/E
86.74
Forward P/E
—
Score
Shopify (SHOP) Stock Price & Analysis
SHOP price $166.69 -1.53 -0.91%
- Ticker
- SHOP
- Price
- $166.69
- Change
- -1.53 -0.91%
- Market cap ?
- $216.31B
- P/E ?
- 112.87
- Forward P/E ?
- 86.74
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 2.62
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 389330000 | 673304000 | 1073229000 | 1578173000 | 2929491000 | 4611856000 | 5600000000 | 7060000000 | 8880000000 | 11556000000 |
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude…
Fair value
SHOP fair value $65.67. Price $166.69. Price is 154% above fair value.
Above fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 80% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 2.35B. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 2.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 1.30B. Net debt -1.35B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | — | 0.46 | — | 3.70B |
| 2026-08-05 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 3.54B | 3.40B |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 3.11B | 3.06B |
| 2026-02-11 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 3.64B | 3.60B |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 2.84B | 2.75B |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.35 | 0.29 | 2.68B | 2.58B |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 2.36B | 2.53B |
| 2025-02-11 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 2.81B | 2.70B |
| 2024-11-12 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 2.16B | 2.15B |
| 2024-08-07 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 2.04B | 2.02B |
| 2024-05-08 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1.86B | 1.86B |
| 2024-02-13 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 2.14B | 2.12B |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 1.71B | 1.67B |
| 2023-08-02 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 1.69B | 1.62B |
| 2023-05-04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.51B | 1.43B |
| 2023-02-15 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 1.73B | 1.63B |
| 2022-10-27 | -0.02 | -0.07 | 1.37B | 1.29B |
| 2022-07-27 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 1.29B | 1.33B |
| 2022-05-05 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 1.20B | 1.26B |
| 2022-02-16 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1.38B | 1.33B |
| 2021-10-28 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1.12B | 1.14B |
| 2021-07-28 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1.12B | 1.14B |
| 2021-04-28 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 988.65M | 849.90M |
| 2021-02-17 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 977.74M | 906.17M |
| 2020-10-29 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 767.40M | 564.42M |
| 2020-07-29 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 714.34M | 6.80M |
| 2020-05-06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 470.00M | 445.26M |
| 2020-02-12 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 505.16M | 390.71M |
| 2019-10-29 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 390.55M | 148.14M |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 361.98M | 108.59M |
| 2019-04-30 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 320.48M | 213.65M |
| 2019-02-12 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 343.86M | 264.51M |
| 2018-10-25 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 270.06M | 135.05M |
| 2018-07-31 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 244.96M | 367.50M |
| 2018-05-01 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 214.34M | 267.88M |
| 2018-02-15 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 222.81M | 74.27M |
| 2017-10-31 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 171.46M | 68.60M |
| 2017-08-01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 151.66M | 1.06B |
| 2017-05-02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 127.38M | 318.50M |
| 2017-02-15 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 130.38M | 352.03M |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-31 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Buy | 344.38K | $0.01 | 3.44K |
| 2023-10-31 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Sell | 344.38K | $0.01 | 3.44K |
| 2023-09-28 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Buy | 3.94M | $0.01 | 39.36K |
| 2023-09-28 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Sell | 3.94M | $0.01 | 39.36K |
| 2023-09-20 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Sell | 9.45M | $0.01 | 94.46K |
| 2023-09-20 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Sell | 9.25M | — | — |
| 2022-07-28 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | Sell | 15.74M | $88.93 | 1.40B |
| 2005-08-12 | SANTORA GREG J | Sell | 166.67K | $3.50 | 583.33K |
| 2005-08-12 | SANTORA GREG J | Buy | 166.67K | $3.50 | 583.33K |
| 2005-08-12 | SANTORA GREG J | Sell | 166.67K | $20.89 | 3.48M |
| 2005-07-26 | HART ALEX W | Buy | 7.50K | $20.90 | 156.75K |
| 2005-07-26 | MATHER ANN | Buy | 7.50K | $20.90 | 156.75K |
| 2005-06-07 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | Buy | 600.00K | $17.80 | 10.68M |
| 2005-06-07 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2004-12-01 | SANTORA GREG J | Sell | 1.60M | $0.88 | 1.40M |
| 2004-11-03 | HART ALEX W | Buy | 30.00K | $26.84 | 805.20K |
| 2004-11-03 | HART ALEX W | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 75.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 5.91K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 890.67K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 55.87K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 71.43K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 785.42K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Buy | 43.74K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Sell | 300.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Sell | 3.14M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Sell | 3.56M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Sell | 174.97K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | Eisenberg Michael A | Sell | 19.11K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Buy | 75.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Buy | 546.39K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Sell | 300.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Sell | 1.77M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Buy | 93.55K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Buy | 1.40M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Buy | 564.35K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Buy | 3.96K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Sell | 360.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Sell | 5.40M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Sell | 2.17M | — | — |
| 2004-10-29 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Sell | 15.24K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | Eisenberg Michael A | Other | 174.97K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | Eisenberg Michael A | Other | 3.14M | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | Eisenberg Michael A | Other | 3.56M | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | Eisenberg Michael A | Other | 300.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | Eisenberg Michael A | Other | 19.11K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | MATHER ANN | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Other | 1.77M | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | CONNAUGHTON JOHN | Other | 300.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Other | 2.17M | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Other | 360.00K | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Other | 5.40M | — | — |
| 2004-10-25 | GURLEY J WILLIAM | Sell | 15.24K | — | — |
| 2004-07-10 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | Sell | 120.00K | $1.50 | 180.00K |
| 2004-06-12 | MATHER ANN | Sell | 120.00K | $1.50 | 180.00K |
| 2004-06-12 | MATHER ANN | Sell | 120.00K | $1.50 | 180.00K |
| 2003-07-30 | NICHOLSON EDWARD A | Buy | 2.00K | $0.30 | 600 |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 1.83K, holders -13 vs prior quarter. Ownership 64.35%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 54.89M | 4.83M | +9.66% | 6.27B |
| FMR LLC | 47.18M | 1.34M | +2.93% | 5.39B |
| INVESCO LTD. | 36.57M | 10.84M | +42.12% | 4.18B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 34.13M | 397.95K | +1.18% | 3.91B |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 34.09M | 390.70K | +1.16% | 3.89B |
| BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO | 28.40M | -618.24K | -2.13% | 3.24B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 25.52M | 812.37K | +3.29% | 2.91B |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 24.75M | -265.09K | -1.06% | 2.83B |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | 23.53M | 1.88M | +8.66% | 2.69B |
| FIL LTD | 19.28M | 1.05M | +5.76% | 2.21B |
| NORGES BANK | 16.41M | 16.41M | New | 1.87B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | 16.30M | 12.81M | +366.10% | 1.86B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 15.22M | -2.24M | -12.81% | 1.74B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 14.34M | 1.43M | +11.06% | 1.67B |
| LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P | 14.41M | 4.74K | +0.03% | 1.65B |
| BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ | 13.77M | 716.34K | +5.49% | 1.57B |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 11.85M | 2.78M | +30.68% | 1.35B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 11.44M | 259.10K | +2.32% | 1.31B |
| BAMCO INC /NY/ | 11.16M | 6.44M | +136.43% | 1.27B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 10.86M | 87.20K | +0.81% | 1.24B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 10.15M | 1.01M | +11.03% | 1.16B |
| NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA /FI/ | 10.02M | -2.79M | -21.79% | 1.14B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 9.78M | 7.52M | +333.72% | 1.12B |
| TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | 9.28M | -294.10K | -3.07% | 1.06B |
| 1832 ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | 9.08M | -1.11M | -10.88% | 1.04B |
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