Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SMG price $61.03 +1.37 +2.30%

Ticker
SMG
Price
$61.03
Change
+1.37 +2.30%
Market cap ?
$3.55B
P/E ?
47.44
Forward P/E ?
12.76
Dividend yield ?
4.45%
Beta ?
1.85
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stocklytics score
61
Value
73
Quality
64
Growth
45

Stocklytics score rationale: value 73, quality 64, growth 45.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
2836100000264210000026634000003156000000413160000049250000003924100000355130000035527000003413100000

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) stands as a leading producer and global distributor of products dedicated to lawn and garden upkeep, as well as specialized indoor and hydroponic cultivation. The company's operations are strategically divided into three core business units: U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and an 'Other' category. SMG's comprehensive product range for lawns includes essential items such as fertilizers…

Fair value

SMG fair value $150.88. Price $61.03. Price is 60% below fair value.

Above fair value, and more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 84% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 431.87M. Growth 0.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.9). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 58.22M. Net debt 2.34B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare SMG

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-04—-2.21—306.10M
2026-07-292.822.481.17B1.17B
2026-04-294.533.971.46B1.41B
2026-01-28-0.77-1.04354.40M357.60M
2025-11-05-1.96-1.98387.40M396.19M
2025-07-302.592.261.19B1.23B
2025-04-303.983.921.42B1.49B
2025-01-29-0.89-1.23416.80M392.09M
2024-11-06-2.31-1.96414.70M399.64M
2024-07-312.311.931.20B1.20B
2024-05-013.693.441.53B1.50B
2024-02-07-1.45-1.53410.40M412.83M
2023-11-01-2.77-2.88374.50M332.16M
2023-08-021.171.461.12B1.15B
2023-05-033.783.471.53B1.61B
2023-02-01-1.02-1.39526.60M502.44M
2022-11-02-2.04-1.98493.70M519.88M
2022-08-031.981.741.19B1.23B
2022-05-035.034.751.68B1.66B
2022-02-01-0.88-0.73566.00M561.18M
2021-11-03-0.82-0.84737.80M764.56M
2021-08-043.983.441.61B1.48B
2021-05-055.645.421.83B1.75B
2021-02-030.39-0.76748.60M1.69B
2020-11-040.060.10890.30M1.12B
2020-07-293.803.371.49B1.32B
2020-05-064.504.181.38B1.28B
2020-01-29-1.12-1.27365.80M414.79M
2019-11-06-0.91-0.86497.70M470.35M
2019-07-313.112.741.17B1.03B
2019-05-013.643.421.19B1.12B
2019-01-30-1.39-1.25298.10M268.08M
2018-11-07-0.75-0.67433.90M387.62M
2018-07-312.672.55994.60M961.07M
2018-05-012.883.311.01B1.16B
2018-01-30-1.08-0.92221.50M190.74M
2017-11-07-0.26-0.30376.70M420.17M
2017-08-012.632.511.08B928.99M
2017-05-022.782.901.20B1.13B
2017-01-31-0.96-1.25246.80M270.05M

Dividends

Yield 4.33%. Payout ratio 3.14%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 100/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 3% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 22 separate years. Yield is 4.3%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-08-21$0.662026-08-212026-09-04Quarterly
2026-05-22$0.662026-05-222026-06-05Quarterly
2026-02-20$0.662026-02-202026-03-06Quarterly
2025-11-21$0.662025-11-212025-12-05Quarterly
2025-08-22$0.662025-08-222025-09-05Quarterly
2025-05-23$0.662025-05-232025-06-06Quarterly
2025-02-21$0.662025-02-212025-03-07Quarterly
2024-11-22$0.662024-11-222024-12-06Quarterly
2024-08-23$0.662024-08-232024-09-06Quarterly
2024-05-23$0.662024-05-242024-06-07Quarterly
2024-02-22$0.662024-02-232024-03-08Quarterly
2023-11-24$0.662023-11-272023-12-08Quarterly
2023-08-24$0.662023-08-252023-09-08Quarterly
2023-05-25$0.662023-05-262023-06-09Quarterly
2023-02-23$0.662023-02-242023-03-10Quarterly
2022-11-25$0.662022-11-282022-12-09Quarterly
2022-08-25$0.662022-08-262022-09-09Quarterly
2022-05-26$0.662022-05-272022-06-10Quarterly
2022-02-23$0.662022-02-242022-03-10Quarterly
2021-11-26$0.662021-11-292021-12-10Quarterly
2021-08-26$0.662021-08-272021-09-10Quarterly
2021-05-26$0.622021-05-272021-06-10Quarterly
2021-02-23$0.622021-02-242021-03-10Quarterly
2020-11-27$0.622020-11-302020-12-10Semi-Annual
2020-08-26$5.622020-08-272020-09-10Special
2020-05-26$0.582020-05-272020-06-10Quarterly
2020-02-24$0.582020-02-252020-03-10Quarterly
2019-11-25$0.582019-11-262019-12-10Quarterly
2019-08-26$0.582019-08-272019-09-10Quarterly
2019-05-24$0.552019-05-282019-06-10Quarterly
2019-02-21$0.552019-02-222019-03-08Quarterly
2018-11-23$0.552018-11-262018-12-10Quarterly
2018-08-24$0.552018-08-272018-09-10Quarterly
2018-05-24$0.532018-05-252018-06-08Quarterly
2018-02-22$0.532018-02-232018-03-09Quarterly
2017-11-22$0.532017-11-242017-12-08Quarterly
2017-08-23$0.532017-08-252017-09-08Quarterly
2017-05-24$0.502017-05-262017-06-09Quarterly
2017-02-22$0.502017-02-242017-03-10Quarterly
2016-11-22$0.502016-11-252016-12-09Quarterly
2016-08-24$0.502016-08-262016-09-09Quarterly
2016-05-25$0.472016-05-272016-06-10Quarterly
2016-02-23$0.472016-02-252016-03-10Quarterly
2015-11-23$0.472015-11-252015-12-10Quarterly
2015-08-25$0.472015-08-272015-09-10Quarterly
2015-05-22$0.452015-05-272015-06-10Quarterly
2015-02-20$0.452015-02-242015-03-10Quarterly
2014-11-24$0.452014-11-262014-12-10Quarterly
2014-08-29$2.002014-09-032014-09-17Special
2014-05-22$0.442014-05-272014-06-10Quarterly
2014-02-20$0.442014-02-242014-03-10Quarterly
2013-11-22$0.442013-11-262013-12-10Quarterly
2013-08-23$0.442013-08-272013-09-10Quarterly
2013-05-23$0.332013-05-282013-06-10Irregular
2013-02-20$0.332013-02-222013-03-08Quarterly
2012-11-21$0.332012-11-262012-12-10Quarterly
2012-08-23$0.332012-08-272012-09-10Quarterly
2012-05-23$0.302012-05-252012-06-08Quarterly
2012-02-22$0.302012-02-242012-03-09Quarterly
2011-11-22$0.302011-11-252011-12-09Quarterly
2011-08-24$0.302011-08-262011-09-09Quarterly
2011-05-25$0.252011-05-272011-06-10Quarterly
2011-02-22$0.252011-02-242011-03-10Quarterly
2010-11-23$0.252010-11-262010-12-10Quarterly
2010-08-25$0.252010-08-272010-09-10Quarterly
2010-05-25$0.122010-05-272010-06-10Quarterly
2010-02-02$0.122010-02-042010-02-18Quarterly
2009-11-23$0.122009-11-262009-12-10Quarterly
2009-08-18$0.122009-08-202009-09-03Quarterly
2009-05-19$0.122009-05-212009-06-04Quarterly
2009-02-03$0.122009-02-052009-02-19Quarterly
2008-11-18$0.122008-11-202008-12-04Quarterly
2008-08-19$0.122008-08-212008-09-05Quarterly
2008-05-20$0.122008-05-222008-06-05Quarterly
2008-02-12$0.122008-02-142008-02-28Quarterly
2007-11-19$0.122007-11-222007-12-06Quarterly
2007-08-21$0.122007-08-232007-09-06Quarterly
2007-05-22$0.122007-05-242007-06-07Quarterly
2007-02-22$8.002007-02-262007-03-05Special
2007-02-06$0.122007-02-082007-02-22Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2027-11-08Scheiwer Mark JOther5.25K$72.60381.37K
2026-11-16Scheiwer Mark JOther7.59K$56.87431.93K
2026-10-26Scheiwer Mark JBuy13$58.74750
2026-10-02Scheiwer Mark JBuy500——
2026-10-02Scheiwer Mark JSell500——
2026-10-02Scheiwer Mark JSell1.56K$49.0276.42K
2026-10-02Scheiwer Mark JOther49.12K$47.622.34M
2026-10-01Sandoval Brian EBuy575——
2026-10-01Johnson Stephen LBuy144——
2026-09-30Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$45.88150
2026-09-28Scheiwer Mark JBuy15$50.27750
2026-09-05Baxter Nathan EricSell12.02K$57.53691.68K
2026-09-04Evans David CBuy118——
2026-09-04Aviles EdithBuy118——
2026-09-04Candelino RobertoBuy77——
2026-09-04Miller Austin ScottBuy53——
2026-09-04HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDBuy37——
2026-09-04Shumlin Peter EBuy170——
2026-09-04Johnson Stephen LBuy155——
2026-09-04Kingdon Mark DBuy118——
2026-09-04Hanft AdamBuy118——
2026-09-04Miaritis NickBuy72——
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JBuy16——
2026-09-04Scheiwer Mark JBuy47——
2026-09-04Sandoval Brian EBuy179——
2026-08-31Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$53.41150
2026-08-31Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$53.41217
2026-08-26Scheiwer Mark JBuy12——
2026-08-10Kingdon Mark DSell831$61.6551.23K
2026-08-03Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.Sell28.79K$67.421.94M
2026-08-03Hagedorn Partnership, L.P.Sell1.21K$68.1682.27K
2026-07-31Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$56.55150
2026-07-31Baxter Nathan EricBuy88$56.555.00K
2026-07-31Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$56.55217
2026-07-30Johnson Stephen LSell1.17K$68.3280.00K
2026-07-27Scheiwer Mark JBuy4——
2026-07-01Johnson Stephen LBuy105$68.577.20K
2026-07-01Miaritis NickBuy16.04K——
2026-07-01Baxter Nathan EricBuy29.17K——
2026-07-01Sandoval Brian EBuy420$68.5728.80K
2026-06-30Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$52.42150
2026-06-30Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$52.42217
2026-06-30Baxter Nathan EricBuy95$52.425.00K
2026-06-26Scheiwer Mark JBuy11——
2026-06-26HAGEDORN JAMESBuy1.27K——
2026-06-05Johnson Stephen LBuy158——
2026-06-05Scheiwer Mark JBuy16——
2026-06-05Scheiwer Mark JBuy48——
2026-06-05Shumlin Peter EBuy173——
2026-06-05Evans David CBuy121——
2026-06-05Aviles EdithBuy121——
2026-06-05Hanft AdamBuy121——
2026-06-05Candelino RobertoBuy79——
2026-06-05Kingdon Mark DBuy121——
2026-06-05Miaritis NickBuy74——
2026-06-05HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDBuy38——
2026-06-05Miller Austin ScottBuy55——
2026-06-05HAGEDORN JAMESBuy2.77K——
2026-06-05Sandoval Brian EBuy177——
2026-05-29Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$50.53150
2026-05-29Baxter Nathan EricBuy99$50.535.00K
2026-05-29Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$50.53217
2026-05-29HAGEDORN JAMESBuy40$50.532.00K
2026-05-26Scheiwer Mark JBuy13——
2026-05-26HAGEDORN JAMESBuy1.51K——
2026-04-30Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$51.04217
2026-04-30Baxter Nathan EricBuy98$51.045.00K
2026-04-30Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$51.04150
2026-04-30HAGEDORN JAMESBuy39$51.042.00K
2026-04-28Baxter Nathan EricSell5.90K$65.38385.55K
2026-04-27Scheiwer Mark JBuy11——
2026-04-27HAGEDORN JAMESBuy1.23K——
2026-04-01Johnson Stephen LBuy6$61.01366
2026-04-01Sandoval Brian EBuy472$61.0128.80K
2026-04-01Johnson Stephen LBuy112$61.016.83K
2026-03-31Baxter Nathan EricBuy91$54.675.00K
2026-03-31Hagedorn ChristopherBuy4$54.67217
2026-03-31Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$54.67150
2026-03-31HAGEDORN JAMESBuy37$54.672.00K
2026-03-30HAGEDORN JAMESSell1.72K——
2026-03-30HAGEDORN JAMESBuy1.72K——
2026-03-30HAGEDORN JAMESSell637$60.2038.35K
2026-03-26Scheiwer Mark JBuy124——
2026-03-26HAGEDORN JAMESBuy3.00K——
2026-03-06Miaritis NickBuy64——
2026-03-06Miller Austin ScottBuy48——
2026-03-06Evans David CBuy105——
2026-03-06Scheiwer Mark JBuy12——
2026-03-06Scheiwer Mark JBuy42——
2026-03-06Shumlin Peter EBuy153——
2026-03-06Aviles EdithBuy105——
2026-03-06Kingdon Mark DBuy105——
2026-03-06HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELDBuy33——
2026-03-06Candelino RobertoBuy68——
2026-03-06HAGEDORN JAMESBuy2.40K——
2026-03-06Hanft AdamBuy105——
2026-03-06Johnson Stephen LBuy138——
2026-03-06Sandoval Brian EBuy151——
2026-02-27Scheiwer Mark JBuy3$55.54150
2026-02-27Baxter Nathan EricBuy90$55.545.00K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 480, holders +19 vs prior quarter. Ownership 87.51%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.4.46M15.59K+0.35%303.79M
FMR LLC4.10M1.96M+91.32%279.02M
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC3.63M231.23K+6.80%247.30M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC2.42M-78.60K-3.14%165.14M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC1.98M19.94K+1.02%134.77M
STATE STREET CORP1.60M82.69K+5.44%109.09M
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC1.58M173.44K+12.29%107.91M
ARIEL INVESTMENTS, LLC1.41M448.34K+46.57%96.10M
BRANDES INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LP1.34M527.01K+65.16%90.98M
QUANTINNO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP1.28M1.06M+486.35%87.05M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP1.23M-62.01K-4.81%83.64M
EPOCH INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC.1.22M400.05K+48.60%83.31M
DEPRINCE RACE & ZOLLO INC1.14M55.25K+5.08%77.82M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP1.14M38.35K+3.48%77.68M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP964.13K68.28K+7.62%65.67M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/886.13K227.53K+34.55%60.35M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC831.21K11.15K+1.36%56.63M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP813.38K279.31K+52.30%55.40M
NORGES BANK675.84K675.84KNew46.03M
MORGAN STANLEY634.80K37.64K+6.30%43.24M
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC625.26K-54.26K-7.98%42.59M
UBS GROUP AG596.25K133.71K+28.91%40.61M
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC585.62K191.54K+48.61%39.89M
HARVEY PARTNERS, LLC542.73K105.23K+24.05%36.97M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP532.63K-11.63K-2.14%36.28M

Forecast

Consensus Buy from 9 analysts. Average price target $77.25, +26.6% versus the current price. Low $75.00. High $79.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $77.25 for The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), 26.6% above the current price of $61.03. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Buy.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

SMG price target

12-month price target
Low$75.00
Average$77.25
High$79.00

The average is 26.6% above the current price of $61.03.

Is The Scotts Miracle-Gro a buy or sell?

Of 9 analysts, 6 rate The Scotts Miracle-Gro Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Buy. That split is not a recommendation.

The Scotts Miracle-Gro earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $4.42, revenue $3.29 billion. 2027, EPS $4.78, revenue $3.37 billion.

SMG score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for SMG is 61 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

SMG forecast FAQs

What is the SMG price target?

$77.25 average, with a published range of $75.00 to $79.00.

Is The Scotts Miracle-Gro a buy or sell?

The consensus is Buy from 9 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the The Scotts Miracle-Gro stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $4.42. The average revenue estimate is $3.29 billion.

What will SMG be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is The Scotts Miracle-Gro's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SMG$61.03+1.37 +2.30%

$3.55B

Market Cap

47.44

P/E

12.76

Forward P/E

61

Score

Price History