TKO Group (TKO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
TKO$176.53+2.65 +1.52%
$12.91B
Market Cap
57.58
P/E
38.09
Forward P/E
56
Score
TKO Group (TKO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
TKO price $176.53 +2.65 +1.52%
- Ticker
- TKO
- Price
- $176.53
- Change
- +2.65 +1.52%
- Market cap ?
- $12.91B
- P/E ?
- 57.58
- Forward P/E ?
- 38.09
- Dividend yield ?
- 1.81%
- Beta ?
- 0.69
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Stocklytics score
- 56
- Value
- 58
- Quality
- 44
- Growth
- 65
Stocklytics score rationale: value 58, quality 44, growth 65.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 729216000 | 800959000 | 930160000 | 960442000 | 974207000 | 1095174000 | 1140147000 | 1674968000 | 2804341000 | 4735151000 |
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stands as a significant enterprise within the sports and entertainment industries. Its business activities are primarily organized into four core divisions: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company is responsible for creating a diverse range of content, including live spectacles, television programs, and both lengthy and concise video…
Fair value
TKO fair value $283.74. Price $176.53. Price is 38% below fair value.
Above fair value, and more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 82% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 1.67B. Growth 9.65%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 73.11M. Net debt 3.23B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | — | 1.21 | — | 1.38B |
| 2026-08-03 | 1.34 | 1.41 | 1.55B | 1.54B |
| 2026-05-06 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.60B | 1.59B |
| 2026-02-25 | -0.08 | 0.24 | 1.04B | 1.02B |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 1.12B | 1.12B |
| 2025-08-06 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.31B | 1.23B |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.69 | 0.61 | 1.27B | 876.05M |
| 2025-02-26 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 642.20M | 605.55M |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.28 | 0.52 | 681.20M | 665.12M |
| 2024-08-08 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 851.20M | 771.54M |
| 2024-05-08 | -1.26 | 0.42 | 629.70M | 611.95M |
| 2024-02-27 | -0.16 | 0.50 | 614.00M | 623.29M |
| 2023-11-07 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 684.80M | 647.07M |
| 2023-08-02 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 410.30M | 397.59M |
| 2023-05-03 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 297.60M | 291.47M |
| 2023-02-02 | 0.45 | 0.59 | 325.30M | 333.77M |
| 2022-11-02 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 304.60M | 283.11M |
| 2022-08-16 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 328.20M | 324.43M |
| 2022-05-05 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 333.40M | 324.93M |
| 2022-02-03 | 0.76 | 0.54 | 310.30M | 325.11M |
| 2021-09-29 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 255.85M | 325.11M |
| 2021-06-29 | 0.34 | — | 265.54M | — |
| 2021-03-30 | 0.51 | — | 263.52M | — |
Dividends
Yield 1.78%. Payout ratio 2.31%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 100/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 2% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 23 separate years. Yield is 1.8%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | $0.79 | 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2026-06-15 | $0.79 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-16 | $0.78 | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-31 | Quarterly |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.78 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.76 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.38 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-30 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.38 | 2025-03-14 | 2025-03-31 | Annual |
| 2023-09-21 | $3.86 | 2023-09-22 | 2023-09-29 | Special |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.12 | 2023-06-15 | 2023-06-26 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.12 | 2023-03-15 | 2023-03-27 | Quarterly |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.12 | 2022-12-15 | 2022-12-27 | Quarterly |
| 2022-09-14 | $0.12 | 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-26 | Quarterly |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.12 | 2022-06-15 | 2022-06-27 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.12 | 2022-03-15 | 2022-03-25 | Quarterly |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.12 | 2021-12-15 | 2021-12-27 | Quarterly |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.12 | 2021-09-15 | 2021-09-27 | Quarterly |
| 2021-06-14 | $0.12 | 2021-06-15 | 2021-06-25 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-12 | $0.12 | 2021-03-15 | 2021-03-25 | Quarterly |
| 2020-12-14 | $0.12 | 2020-12-15 | 2020-12-28 | Quarterly |
| 2020-09-14 | $0.12 | 2020-09-15 | 2020-09-25 | Quarterly |
| 2020-06-12 | $0.12 | 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-25 | Quarterly |
| 2020-03-12 | $0.12 | 2020-03-13 | 2020-03-25 | Quarterly |
| 2019-12-12 | $0.12 | 2019-12-13 | 2019-12-26 | Quarterly |
| 2019-09-12 | $0.12 | 2019-09-13 | 2019-09-25 | Quarterly |
| 2019-06-13 | $0.12 | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-25 | Quarterly |
| 2019-03-14 | $0.12 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-03-25 | Quarterly |
| 2018-12-13 | $0.12 | 2018-12-14 | 2018-12-26 | Quarterly |
| 2018-09-13 | $0.12 | 2018-09-14 | 2018-09-25 | Quarterly |
| 2018-06-14 | $0.12 | 2018-06-15 | 2018-06-25 | Quarterly |
| 2018-03-14 | $0.12 | 2018-03-15 | 2018-03-26 | Quarterly |
| 2017-12-14 | $0.12 | 2017-12-15 | 2017-12-26 | Quarterly |
| 2017-09-14 | $0.12 | 2017-09-15 | 2017-09-25 | Quarterly |
| 2017-06-13 | $0.12 | 2017-06-15 | 2017-06-26 | Quarterly |
| 2017-03-13 | $0.12 | 2017-03-15 | 2017-03-27 | Quarterly |
| 2016-12-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2016-09-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2016-06-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2016-03-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2015-12-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2015-09-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2015-06-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2015-03-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2014-12-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2014-09-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2014-06-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2014-03-12 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2013-12-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2013-09-11 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2013-06-12 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2013-03-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2012-12-12 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2012-09-12 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2012-06-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2012-03-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2011-12-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2011-09-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2011-06-13 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2011-03-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2010-12-13 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2010-09-13 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2010-06-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2010-03-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2009-12-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2009-09-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2009-06-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2009-03-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2008-12-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2008-09-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2008-06-11 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2008-03-12 | $0.36 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2007-12-12 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2007-09-12 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2007-06-13 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2007-03-13 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2006-12-13 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2006-09-27 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2006-06-28 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2006-03-29 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2005-12-28 | $0.24 | — | — | Quarterly |
| 2005-09-28 | $0.12 | — | — | Quarterly |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Khan Nick | Sell | 9.19K | $175.19 | 1.61M |
| 2026-10-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 400 | $175.07 | 70.03K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.33K | $193.13 | 257.44K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 4.26K | $194.12 | 826.17K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.42K | $194.99 | 277.08K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.28K | $195.95 | 250.62K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.20K | $197.12 | 236.54K |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | Sell | 100 | $197.64 | 19.76K |
| 2026-09-14 | Emanuel Ariel | Sell | 49.48K | $190.31 | 9.42M |
| 2026-09-12 | Emanuel Ariel | Buy | 97.04K | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Emanuel Ariel | Sell | 97.04K | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 400 | $192.84 | 77.14K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 300 | $196.31 | 58.89K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.00K | $197.60 | 197.60K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.40K | $199.18 | 278.85K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 600 | $200.05 | 120.03K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 2.25K | $201.11 | 451.69K |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | Sell | 600 | $201.91 | 121.15K |
| 2026-08-18 | Schleimer Andrew M | Sell | 9.94K | $194.39 | 1.93M |
| 2026-08-18 | Emanuel Ariel | Sell | 24.70K | $194.39 | 4.80M |
| 2026-08-18 | SHAPIRO MARK S | Sell | 19.12K | $194.39 | 3.72M |
| 2026-08-18 | Khan Nick | Sell | 8.25K | $194.39 | 1.60M |
| 2026-08-17 | Schleimer Andrew M | Buy | 17.75K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Schleimer Andrew M | Sell | 17.75K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Emanuel Ariel | Buy | 44.38K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Emanuel Ariel | Sell | 44.38K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | SHAPIRO MARK S | Buy | 36.98K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | SHAPIRO MARK S | Sell | 36.98K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Nick | Buy | 14.79K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Nick | Sell | 14.79K | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 500 | $195.04 | 97.52K |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 3.80K | $196.29 | 745.90K |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 2.40K | $196.96 | 472.70K |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 900 | $198.24 | 178.42K |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.99K | $199.14 | 396.09K |
| 2026-07-21 | Khan Nick | Sell | 132 | $181.09 | 23.90K |
| 2026-07-21 | Khan Nick | Sell | 12.87K | $181.11 | 2.33M |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | Sell | 3.68K | $182.54 | 672.11K |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | Sell | 3.30K | $183.43 | 605.14K |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.40K | $184.45 | 258.23K |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.70K | $185.29 | 314.99K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 3.36K | $181.13 | 607.87K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.93K | $182.01 | 351.83K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.60K | $183.01 | 292.82K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.67K | $184.28 | 307.75K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 830 | $185.29 | 153.79K |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | Sell | 200 | $186.14 | 37.23K |
| 2026-06-30 | Khan Nick | Buy | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 500 | $199.37 | 99.69K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 600 | $200.31 | 120.19K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 400 | $202.43 | 80.97K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 789 | $203.48 | 160.55K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 800 | $204.76 | 163.81K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 100 | $205.33 | 20.53K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 300 | $206.68 | 62.00K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 600 | $208.15 | 124.89K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 2.20K | $209.02 | 459.84K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.10K | $210.12 | 231.13K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.40K | $211.25 | 295.75K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 300 | $211.81 | 63.54K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 200 | $213.34 | 42.67K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 100 | $214.93 | 21.49K |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | Sell | 200 | $216.06 | 43.21K |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | Buy | 1.75K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | Buy | 1.55K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | Sell | 1.75K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | Buy | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | Sell | 1.24K | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | KRAFT JONATHAN | Buy | 700 | $190.61 | 133.43K |
| 2026-05-14 | KRAFT JONATHAN | Buy | 4.50K | $189.86 | 854.37K |
| 2026-05-13 | Emanuel Ariel | Buy | 6.94K | $185.36 | 1.29M |
| 2026-05-13 | Emanuel Ariel | Buy | 3.87K | $184.60 | 714.03K |
| 2026-05-13 | SHAPIRO MARK S | Buy | 6.00K | $185.40 | 1.11M |
| 2026-05-13 | SHAPIRO MARK S | Buy | 4.81K | $184.62 | 887.47K |
| 2026-05-13 | Schleimer Andrew M | Buy | 1.00K | $186.21 | 186.21K |
| 2026-05-13 | Schleimer Andrew M | Buy | 1.70K | $184.99 | 313.74K |
| 2026-05-06 | Khan Nick | Buy | 58.32K | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | Sell | 3.41K | $185.49 | 633.26K |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | Sell | 5.71K | $186.23 | 1.06M |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | Sell | 394 | $186.93 | 73.65K |
| 2026-04-06 | Khan Nick | Sell | 2.82K | $197.39 | 556.25K |
| 2026-04-06 | Khan Nick | Sell | 4.40K | $198.67 | 874.15K |
| 2026-04-06 | Khan Nick | Sell | 1.90K | $199.44 | 378.94K |
| 2026-04-06 | Khan Nick | Sell | 200 | $200.64 | 40.13K |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 687, holders +11 vs prior quarter. Ownership 99.11%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 5.67M | 353.97K | +6.66% | 1.14B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 4.70M | -550.39K | -10.48% | 946.65M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 4.63M | -1.78M | -27.71% | 932.89M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 4.01M | -164.46K | -3.94% | 807.30M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 3.73M | 184.78K | +5.21% | 753.78M |
| NINETY ONE UK LTD | 3.14M | -479.35K | -13.24% | 632.10M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 3.05M | -47.91K | -1.55% | 613.12M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 2.64M | 73.62K | +2.87% | 530.74M |
| XN LP | 2.49M | 596.67K | +31.48% | 501.70M |
| LINDSELL TRAIN LTD | 2.10M | -350.61K | -14.31% | 422.52M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 2.09M | 693.93K | +49.79% | 420.27M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.73M | -247.03K | -12.50% | 347.54M |
| INVESCO LTD. | 1.60M | 18.00K | +1.14% | 322.05M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 1.37M | -179.26K | -11.58% | 275.45M |
| DARLINGTON PARTNERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | 1.35M | 0 | 0.00% | 271.84M |
| CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, LLC | 1.29M | 6.17K | +0.48% | 260.33M |
| FMR LLC | 821.84K | 391.70K | +91.06% | 165.44M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 786.02K | -198.60K | -20.17% | 158.23M |
| VONTOBEL HOLDING LTD. | 783.74K | -352.13K | -31.00% | 157.78M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 763.93K | 187.72K | +32.58% | 153.79M |
| CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO | 706.69K | -21.11K | -2.90% | 142.26M |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | 699.73K | -131 | -0.02% | 140.86M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 699.73K | 699.73K | New | 140.86M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 680.05K | 505.55K | +289.71% | 136.90M |
| AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC | 637.84K | -230.57K | -26.55% | 128.40M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 23 analysts. Average price target $223.57, +26.6% versus the current price. Low $208.00. High $235.00.
Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn