Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TSM price $438.41 +1.54 +0.35%

Ticker
TSM
Price
$438.41
Change
+1.54 +0.35%
Market cap ?
$2.27T
P/E ?
24.27
Forward P/E ?
0.80
Dividend yield ?
1.01%
Sector
Technology
Industry
Semiconductors
Stocklytics score
74
Value
50
Quality
91
Growth
82

Stocklytics score rationale: value 50, quality 91, growth 82.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
94790920000097744260000010313618000001069985400000133925480000015874150000002263891300000216173600000028943080000003809054300000

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa…

Fair value

TSM fair value $11,922.52. Price $438.41. Price is 96% below fair value.

Below fair value, around its usual discount.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 1.51T. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.88% (beta 1.4). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 5.19B. Net debt -1.70T. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Model uncertainty high for this stock

Compare TSM

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-01-21—5.16—52.75B
2026-10-154.604.4546.06B45.67B
2026-07-164.223.8140.20B39.83B
2026-04-153.493.3135.98B35.35B
2026-01-153.092.9033.14B33.01B
2025-10-162.922.6332.36B32.07B
2025-07-172.502.3831.75B30.21B
2025-05-152.142.0725.80B25.46B
2025-01-162.192.2026.38B26.24B
2024-11-141.951.7923.60B23.31B
2024-08-141.471.4120.66B20.33B
2024-04-181.341.3018.32B18.32B
2024-01-181.461.3819.80B19.68B
2023-11-141.261.1616.89B16.96B
2023-07-131.131.0715.47B15.44B
2023-04-131.401.2116.70B16.99B
2023-01-121.821.8020.54B20.57B
2022-11-141.791.6919.22B19.44B
2022-07-141.551.5017.87B17.68B
2022-04-141.401.3116.94B16.73B
2022-02-251.151.1415.82B15.66B
2021-11-121.081.0514.79B15.12B
2021-07-150.930.8913.33B13.44B
2021-04-150.960.9112.74B12.52B
2021-01-140.970.9212.86B12.64B
2020-10-150.900.9212.34B10.60B
2020-07-160.780.7310.55B10.41B
2020-04-160.750.7310.29B10.06B
2020-01-160.730.7210.37B10.60B
2019-10-170.620.639.46B9.80B
2019-07-250.410.427.77B7.76B
2019-05-200.380.087.09B7.63B
2019-01-170.120.129.39B6.90B
2018-10-180.560.568.52B8.42B
2018-07-190.470.457.63B7.61B
2018-04-190.590.608.51B8.56B
2018-01-180.640.639.20B8.90B
2017-10-190.570.568.31B8.33B
2017-08-140.420.427.03B6.88B
2017-04-130.540.537.71B7.69B

Dividends

Yield 0.86%. Payout ratio 22.39%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 22% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 23 separate years. Yield is 0.9%, which is modest.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-12-10$1.092026-12-102027-01-07Quarterly
2026-09-16$1.102026-09-162026-10-08Quarterly
2026-06-11$0.942026-06-112026-07-09Quarterly
2026-03-17$0.942026-03-172026-04-09Quarterly
2025-12-11$0.802025-12-112026-01-08Quarterly
2025-09-16$0.822025-09-162025-10-09Quarterly
2025-06-12$0.622025-06-122025-07-10Quarterly
2025-03-18$0.542025-03-182025-04-10Quarterly
2024-12-12$0.482024-12-122025-01-09Quarterly
2024-09-12$0.492024-09-122024-10-09Quarterly
2024-06-13$0.432024-06-132024-07-11Quarterly
2024-03-18$0.442024-03-192024-04-11Quarterly
2023-12-14$0.382023-12-152024-01-11Quarterly
2023-09-14$0.372023-09-152023-10-12Quarterly
2023-06-15$0.352023-06-162023-07-13Quarterly
2023-03-16$0.362023-03-172023-04-13Quarterly
2022-12-15$0.352022-12-162023-01-12Quarterly
2022-09-15$0.342022-09-162022-10-13Quarterly
2022-06-16$0.362022-06-172022-07-14Quarterly
2022-03-16$0.382022-03-172022-04-14Quarterly
2021-12-16$0.392021-12-172022-01-13Quarterly
2021-09-16$0.392021-09-172021-10-14Quarterly
2021-06-17$0.352021-06-182021-07-15Quarterly
2021-03-17$0.352021-03-182021-04-15Quarterly
2020-12-17$0.352020-12-182021-01-14Quarterly
2020-09-17$0.342020-09-182020-10-15Quarterly
2020-06-18$0.332020-06-192020-07-16Quarterly
2020-03-19$0.332020-03-202020-04-16Quarterly
2019-12-19$0.332019-12-202020-01-16Quarterly
2019-09-19$0.262019-09-202019-10-17Quarterly
2019-06-24$1.022019-06-252019-07-18Annual
2018-06-25$1.042018-06-262018-07-19Annual
2017-06-26$0.922017-06-282017-07-20Annual
2016-06-27$0.942016-06-292016-07-21Annual
2015-06-29$0.722015-07-012015-07-23Annual
2014-07-14$0.502014-07-162014-08-06Annual
2013-07-03$0.502013-07-082013-07-29Annual
2012-07-05$0.502012-07-092012-07-30Annual
2011-06-29$0.522011-07-012011-07-25Annual
2010-07-06$0.472010-07-082010-07-27Annual
2009-07-15$0.462009-07-172009-08-14Annual
2008-07-16$0.492008-07-182008-08-15Annual
2007-06-08$0.462007-06-122007-07-10Annual
2006-06-20$0.382006-06-222006-07-19Annual
2005-06-13$0.312005-06-152005-07-12Annual
2004-06-14$0.092004-06-162004-07-15Annual

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-07Yuan LipenBuy40$79.393.18K
2026-10-07Yeap Choh FeiBuy52$79.394.13K
2026-10-07Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangBuy59$79.394.68K
2026-10-07Yoo Chue-SanBuy50$79.393.97K
2026-10-07Wu Shien-YangBuy53$79.394.21K
2026-10-07Wei Che-ChiaBuy144$79.3911.43K
2026-10-07Wu Yi-HuangBuy39$79.393.10K
2026-10-07Wang Ying-LangBuy52$79.394.13K
2026-10-07Mii Yuh-JierBuy68$79.395.40K
2026-10-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy40$79.393.18K
2026-10-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy7$79.39556
2026-10-07Lu Chin-ShengBuy36$79.392.86K
2026-10-07Lu Lee-ChungBuy49$79.393.89K
2026-10-07Lin Shyue-ShyhBuy44$79.393.49K
2026-10-07Lin Chris Horng-DarBuy44$79.393.49K
2026-10-07Lee Chun-HsienBuy51$79.394.05K
2026-10-07Ku Yao-ChingBuy46$79.393.65K
2026-10-07Hwang Yuan-KoBuy39$79.393.10K
2026-10-07Huang Jen-ChauBuy28$79.392.22K
2026-10-07Jang Syun-MingBuy46$79.393.65K
2026-10-07Hou Yung-ChinBuy60$79.394.76K
2026-10-07Hsu Kuo-ChinBuy52$79.394.13K
2026-10-07He JunBuy43$79.393.41K
2026-10-07Chuang Tzu-SouBuy46$79.393.65K
2026-10-07Cao MinBuy51$79.394.05K
2026-10-07Chin Yung-PeiBuy67$79.395.32K
2026-10-07Chang Tzonz-ShengBuy51$79.394.05K
2026-10-07Fang Shu-HuaBuy53$79.394.21K
2026-10-07Chuang JuipingBuy46$79.393.65K
2026-10-07Chen Pei-HungBuy43$79.393.41K
2026-10-07Chen Chih-HoBuy31$79.392.46K
2026-09-07Wu Yi-HuangBuy40$76.203.05K
2026-09-07Yoo Chue-SanBuy53$76.204.04K
2026-09-07Yeap Choh FeiBuy54$76.204.11K
2026-09-07Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangBuy61$76.204.65K
2026-09-07Yuan LipenBuy41$76.203.12K
2026-09-07Mii Yuh-JierBuy71$76.205.41K
2026-09-07Wu Shien-YangBuy57$76.204.34K
2026-09-07Wei Che-ChiaBuy149$76.2011.35K
2026-09-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy43$76.203.28K
2026-09-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy5$76.20381
2026-09-07Wang Ying-LangBuy54$76.204.11K
2026-09-07Lu Chin-ShengBuy38$76.202.90K
2026-09-07Lin Chris Horng-DarBuy47$76.203.58K
2026-09-07Lin Shyue-ShyhBuy44$76.203.35K
2026-09-07Lee Chun-HsienBuy52$76.203.96K
2026-09-07Lu Lee-ChungBuy51$76.203.89K
2026-09-07Jang Syun-MingBuy49$76.203.73K
2026-09-07Hwang Yuan-KoBuy40$76.203.05K
2026-09-07Hsu Kuo-ChinBuy55$76.204.19K
2026-09-07Huang Jen-ChauBuy30$76.202.29K
2026-09-07Ku Yao-ChingBuy47$76.203.58K
2026-09-07Hou Yung-ChinBuy61$76.204.65K
2026-09-07Chuang JuipingBuy50$76.203.81K
2026-09-07Fang Shu-HuaBuy56$76.204.27K
2026-09-07He JunBuy46$76.203.51K
2026-09-07Chuang Tzu-SouBuy47$76.203.58K
2026-09-07Chen Chih-HoBuy32$76.202.44K
2026-09-07Cao MinBuy56$76.204.27K
2026-09-07Chin Yung-PeiBuy71$76.205.41K
2026-09-07Chen Pei-HungBuy46$76.203.51K
2026-09-07Chang Tzonz-ShengBuy53$76.204.04K
2026-09-01Yeap Choh FeiBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Yoo Chue-SanBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Wu Shien-YangBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangBuy20.31K——
2026-09-01Wei Che-ChiaBuy204.38K——
2026-09-01Mii Yuh-JierBuy32.20K——
2026-09-01Wang Ying-LangBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Lu Lee-ChungBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Lin Chris Horng-DarBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Lee Chun-HsienBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Hsu Kuo-ChinBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Huang Jen-ChauBuy20.31K——
2026-09-01Jang Syun-MingBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01He JunBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Hou Yung-ChinBuy20.31K——
2026-09-01Chuang Tzu-SouBuy8.18K——
2026-09-01Chin Yung-PeiBuy32.20K——
2026-09-01Chang Tzonz-ShengBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Fang Shu-HuaBuy20.31K——
2026-09-01Cao MinBuy12.88K——
2026-09-01Chuang JuipingBuy8.18K——
2026-08-19Yuan LipenBuy1.00K$73.7773.77K
2026-08-18Yuan LipenBuy1.00K$74.5074.50K
2026-08-18Yuan LipenBuy350$73.5825.75K
2026-08-07Yeap Choh FeiBuy57$73.314.18K
2026-08-07Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangBuy63$73.314.62K
2026-08-07Yuan LipenBuy42$73.313.08K
2026-08-07Wu Yi-HuangBuy41$73.313.01K
2026-08-07Yoo Chue-SanBuy51$73.313.74K
2026-08-07Mii Yuh-JierBuy72$73.315.28K
2026-08-07Wang Ying-LangBuy55$73.314.03K
2026-08-07Wei Che-ChiaBuy152$73.3111.14K
2026-08-07Wu Shien-YangBuy57$73.314.18K
2026-08-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy42$73.313.08K
2026-08-07Tien Bor-ZenBuy7$73.31513
2026-08-07Lin Chris Horng-DarBuy49$73.313.59K
2026-08-07Lu Lee-ChungBuy52$73.313.81K
2026-08-07Lin Shyue-ShyhBuy47$73.313.45K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 3.77K, holders +319 vs prior quarter. Ownership 14.77%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
FMR LLC58.94M-1.46M-2.41%28.15B
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS34.37M1.49M+4.52%16.41B
SANDERS CAPITAL, LLC26.15M-1.91M-6.81%12.49B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO23.83M-155.36K-0.65%10.84B
BLACKROCK, INC.20.11M1.89M+10.36%9.61B
FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC18.87M248.51K+1.33%9.01B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC18.46M15.19M+464.68%8.81B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP17.25M13.36M+343.41%8.24B
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP17.21M-2.05M-10.65%8.22B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP16.84M12.95M+332.98%8.04B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC16.13M12.86M+393.34%7.70B
MORGAN STANLEY15.85M1.08M+7.31%7.57B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/15.28M1.17M+8.33%7.30B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC15.22M11.95M+365.56%7.27B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC14.10M9.73M+223.20%6.73B
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS11.68M370.22K+3.27%5.54B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/11.32M3.16M+38.73%5.41B
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC10.69M-1.33M-11.10%5.10B
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS10.47M484.53K+4.85%5.00B
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/9.51M-167.65K-1.73%4.73B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC9.74M6.56M+206.50%4.65B
UBS GROUP AG9.57M7.81M+442.88%4.57B
COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC8.91M-368.55K-3.97%4.26B
WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC9.26M-66.08K-0.71%4.21B
JUPITER TOPCO LLC8.01M8.01MNew3.82B

Forecast

Consensus Buy from 25 analysts. Average price target $585.57, +33.6% versus the current price. Low $500.00. High $700.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $585.57 for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), 33.6% above the current price of $438.41. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Buy.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

TSM price target

12-month price target
Low$500.00
Average$585.57
High$700.00

The average is 33.6% above the current price of $438.41.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company a buy or sell?

Of 25 analysts, 18 rate Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Buy or Strong Buy, 7 Hold, and 0 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Buy. That split is not a recommendation.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $545.76, revenue $5.48 trillion. 2027, EPS $728.96, revenue $7.53 trillion.

TSM score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for TSM is 74 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

TSM forecast FAQs

What is the TSM price target?

$585.57 average, with a published range of $500.00 to $700.00.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company a buy or sell?

The consensus is Buy from 25 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $545.76. The average revenue estimate is $5.48 trillion.

What will TSM be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

Capital is at risk. Stocklytics is operated by Stocklytics Inc., a Marshall Islands company. It is not regulated by the FCA and does not give investment advice.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TSM$438.41+1.54 +0.35%

$2.27T

Market Cap

24.27

P/E

0.80

Forward P/E

74

Score

Price History