Velocity Financial (VEL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

VEL price $15.94 +0.37 +2.38%

Ticker
VEL
Price
$15.94
Change
+0.37 +2.38%
Market cap ?
$629.33M
P/E ?
5.84
Forward P/E ?
5.68
Dividend yield ?
0.00%
Beta ?
0.75
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Financial - Mortgages
Stocklytics score
55
Value
49
Quality
51
Growth
66

Stocklytics score rationale: value 49, quality 51, growth 66.

Financials

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
7547100094931000121520000152784000165840000181310000248380000131718000482776000714448000

Operating across the United States, Velocity Financial, Inc. functions as a specialized real estate finance firm. Its core business involves generating and overseeing investment loans, which are typically secured by 1-4 unit residential rental properties and smaller commercial real estate assets. The company delivers its financial offerings to clients via an extensive network of independent mortgage brokers…

Fair value

VEL fair value $42.61. Price $15.94. Price is 63% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 98% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Model uncertainty high for this stock

Compare VEL

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-04—0.71—93.15M
2026-08-050.710.6594.99M85.57M
2026-05-060.680.6485.22M68.50M
2026-03-110.930.67102.90M67.80M
2025-11-060.690.67172.29M52.54M
2025-08-070.730.54151.59M43.04M
2025-05-010.550.52119.26M40.37M
2025-03-060.600.48124.89M42.70M
2024-11-070.470.4849.27M42.64M
2024-08-010.450.41107.09M50.20M
2024-05-020.510.3998.61M46.20M
2024-03-070.460.3893.69M47.50M
2023-11-020.370.3535.48M43.40M
2023-08-030.380.3330.17M35.70M
2023-05-040.330.2929.47M30.20M
2023-03-090.270.2924.99M27.70M
2022-11-030.290.3025.18M27.60M
2022-08-040.310.2928.36M27.30M
2022-05-050.360.2814.24M25.70M
2022-03-100.290.2351.55M22.00M
2021-11-030.230.1920.44M21.50M
2021-08-050.250.1723.49M17.01M
2021-05-060.200.2015.26M13.49M
2021-03-160.290.1322.66M—
2020-11-110.120.1415.49M—
2020-08-120.170.1411.82M49.30M
2020-05-130.290.0816.77M19.34M
2020-04-070.05—16.26M—
2020-01-170.20—14.43M—
2019-06-300.30—13.86M—
2019-03-310.23—37.87M—
2018-12-310.02—33.71M—
2018-09-300.28—33.29M—
2018-06-300.22—31.01M—
2018-03-310.05—12.55M—
2017-12-310.05—12.36M—
2017-09-300.18—25.91M—
2017-06-300.14—24.29M—
2017-03-310.09—21.98M—

Dividends

Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.

Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
No data yet.

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-09-10Szczepaniak Mark RSell2.00K$18.0336.06K
2026-09-01Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.60K$18.0028.80K
2026-08-11Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell4.33K$19.0682.53K
2026-08-11Tam FionaSell1.23K$19.0023.41K
2026-08-10Szczepaniak Mark RSell2.00K$18.1636.32K
2026-08-06Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.60K$18.0028.80K
2026-08-06Szczepaniak Mark RSell400$18.007.20K
2026-07-28Szczepaniak Mark RSell400$18.007.20K
2026-07-07Tam FionaSell68$19.001.29K
2026-07-07Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell2.17K$19.0041.13K
2026-07-01Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.60K$18.5729.71K
2026-06-30Kelly Roland ThomasBuy858$18.4615.84K
2026-06-30Farrar Christopher D.Buy1.27K$18.4623.48K
2026-06-26Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.0728.42K
2026-05-26Pitstick JohnSell3.60K$17.1761.86K
2026-05-26Schaefer Joy L.Sell3.60K$17.1761.86K
2026-05-21Beckett Dorika MBuy5.41K$17.5595.00K
2026-05-21Schaefer Joy L.Buy5.41K$17.5595.00K
2026-05-21Pitstick JohnBuy5.41K$17.5595.00K
2026-05-01Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$19.3030.36K
2026-04-17Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell2.13K$20.0042.60K
2026-04-01Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.1328.52K
2026-03-31Kelly Roland ThomasSell814$18.2214.83K
2026-03-30Kelly Roland ThomasSell14.03K$18.03252.94K
2026-03-17Kelly Roland ThomasSell5.16K$18.0693.21K
2026-03-02Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.3228.82K
2026-02-02Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell1.77K$20.3336.02K
2026-02-02Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$20.5332.29K
2026-01-28Kelly Roland ThomasSell16.17K$20.22326.96K
2026-01-28Farrar Christopher D.Sell64.70K$20.221.31M
2026-01-28Szczepaniak Mark RSell23.54K$20.22475.98K
2026-01-28Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell18.57K$20.22375.59K
2026-01-28Tam FionaSell4.25K$20.2285.96K
2026-01-26Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell1.77K$20.0035.40K
2026-01-23Farrar Christopher D.Sell23.17K$19.39449.29K
2026-01-23Szczepaniak Mark RSell4.33K$19.3983.94K
2026-01-23Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell4.14K$19.3980.27K
2026-01-23Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.42K$19.3927.46K
2026-01-23Tam FionaSell453$19.398.78K
2026-01-21Farrar Christopher D.Sell25.68K$19.53501.55K
2026-01-21Szczepaniak Mark RSell3.37K$19.5365.89K
2026-01-21Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell3.43K$19.5366.99K
2026-01-21Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.75K$19.5334.22K
2026-01-21Tam FionaSell541$19.5310.57K
2026-01-15Farrar Christopher D.Buy89.28K$19.601.75M
2026-01-15Farrar Christopher D.Buy89.28K$19.601.75M
2026-01-15Tam FionaBuy3.06K$19.6060.00K
2026-01-15Tam FionaBuy3.06K$19.6060.00K
2026-01-15Kelly Roland ThomasBuy14.03K$19.60274.99K
2026-01-15Kelly Roland ThomasBuy14.03K$19.60274.99K
2026-01-15Taylor Jeffrey T.Buy19.13K$19.60374.99K
2026-01-15Taylor Jeffrey T.Buy19.13K$19.60374.99K
2026-01-15Szczepaniak Mark RBuy19.13K$19.60374.99K
2026-01-15Szczepaniak Mark RBuy19.13K$19.60374.99K
2026-01-15Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$19.5130.69K
2026-01-13Farrar Christopher D.Sell8.85K$18.70165.57K
2026-01-13Szczepaniak Mark RSell4.25K$18.7079.57K
2026-01-13Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell3.46K$18.7064.68K
2026-01-13Kelly Roland ThomasSell2.11K$18.7039.44K
2026-01-13Tam FionaSell681$18.7012.73K
2025-12-31Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell3.05K$20.1361.39K
2025-12-16Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell7.57K$20.03151.65K
2025-12-02Kelly Roland ThomasSell6.66K$19.38128.97K
2025-12-01Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$19.3430.41K
2025-11-03Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.5029.09K
2025-10-01Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.0528.37K
2025-09-02Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.8529.63K
2025-08-12Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.0028.30K
2025-07-01Szczepaniak Mark RSell1.57K$18.4428.99K
2025-06-30Farrar Christopher D.Buy1.20K$15.7618.97K
2025-06-30Kelly Roland ThomasBuy1.20K$15.7618.97K
2025-05-23Beckett Dorika MBuy5.76K$16.4894.99K
2025-05-23Pitstick JohnBuy5.76K$16.4894.99K
2025-05-23Pitstick JohnSell4.38K$16.4872.13K
2025-05-23Schaefer Joy L.Buy5.76K$16.4894.99K
2025-05-23Schaefer Joy L.Sell4.38K$16.4872.13K
2025-05-01TOBI III SPE I LLCBuy1.67M$2.964.95M
2025-05-01TOBI III SPE I LLCSell1.67M——
2025-03-27SPG GP, LLCBuy446.39K$4.942.21M
2025-03-27SPG GP, LLCSell258.83K$18.734.85M
2025-03-27SPG GP, LLCBuy892.78K$2.962.64M
2025-03-27SPG GP, LLCSell892.78K$2.962.64M
2025-03-27SPG GP, LLCSell446.39K$4.942.21M
2025-03-06TOBI III SPE I LLCBuy1.67M——
2025-03-06TOBI III SPE I LLCSell1.67M——
2025-03-06SPG GP, LLCBuy892.78K$2.962.64M
2025-03-06SPG GP, LLCBuy446.39K$4.942.21M
2025-03-06SPG GP, LLCSell446.39K$4.942.21M
2025-03-06SPG GP, LLCSell892.78K$2.962.64M
2025-02-14Kelly Roland ThomasSell1.21K$18.5622.36K
2025-02-14Szczepaniak Mark RSell2.68K$18.5649.70K
2025-02-14Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell2.87K$18.5653.30K
2025-02-14Tam FionaSell638$18.5611.84K
2025-02-14Farrar Christopher D.Sell5.37K$18.5699.61K
2025-01-23Szczepaniak Mark RSell4.32K$18.4279.59K
2025-01-23Taylor Jeffrey T.Sell4.07K$18.4274.88K
2025-01-23Kelly Roland ThomasSell2.11K$18.4238.92K
2025-01-23Tam FionaSell543$18.4210.00K
2025-01-21Farrar Christopher D.Buy45.00K——
2025-01-21Tam FionaBuy3.75K——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 106, holders 0 vs prior quarter. Ownership 100.81%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
SNOW PHIPPS GROUP, LLC13.35M00.00%246.50M
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT GMBH12.64M00.00%233.29M
BEACH POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP6.58M6.58M+207284.37%121.51M
BLACKROCK, INC.1.49M-152.09K-9.26%27.50M
HBK INVESTMENTS L P737.50K00.00%13.61M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP656.73K74.17K+12.73%12.12M
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.505.50K22.79K+4.72%9.33M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC487.01K6.36K+1.32%8.99M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC357.20K71.83K+25.17%6.59M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC272.54K23.04K+9.23%5.03M
STATE STREET CORP249.73K31.59K+14.48%4.61M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC235.33K-39.80K-14.46%4.34M
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC.124.13K36.40K+41.48%2.29M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP123.90K49.50K+66.53%2.29M
MAN GROUP PLC116.92K40.54K+53.08%2.16M
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD116.61K10.74K+10.15%2.15M
MORGAN STANLEY102.53K14.08K+15.92%1.89M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC102.19K35.45K+53.11%1.89M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP92.14K11.48K+14.24%1.70M
TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL91.22K32.32K+54.87%1.68M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC89.50K4.10K+4.80%1.65M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.89.50K89.50KNew1.65M
NFJ INVESTMENT GROUP, LLC72.61K00.00%1.34M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC71.55K12.64K+21.46%1.32M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO67.60K-1.79K-2.58%1.25M

Forecast

Consensus Buy from 3 analysts. Average price target $20.00, +25.5% versus the current price. Low $20.00. High $20.00.

Insights · Dividends · Forecast · Financials · Learn

Stocklytics home · Screener

Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $20.00 for Velocity Financial (VEL), 24.8% above the current price of $16.02. Of 3 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 Hold, and 1 Sell or Strong Sell, giving a consensus of Buy.

Forecasts are third-party estimates and often wrong. They are not investment advice.

VEL price target

12-month price target
Low$20.00
Average$20.00
High$20.00

The average is 24.8% above the current price of $16.02.

Is Velocity Financial a buy or sell?

Of 3 analysts, 2 rate Velocity Financial Buy or Strong Buy, 0 Hold, and 1 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus label is Buy. That split is not a recommendation.

Velocity Financial earnings and revenue forecast

Analyst averages on file: 2026, EPS $2.81, revenue $278.20 million. 2027, EPS $3.03, revenue $306.74 million.

VEL score and fair value

The Stocklytics Score for VEL is 55 out of 100. It averages value, quality, and growth against a large-cap US universe. It is not a price target and not a buy or sell rating. Fair value is a separate estimate on the fair value tab.

VEL forecast FAQs

What is the VEL price target?

$20.00 average, with a published range of $20.00 to $20.00.

Is Velocity Financial a buy or sell?

The consensus is Buy from 3 analysts. This is not a recommendation.

What is the Velocity Financial stock forecast for 2026?

Analysts' average EPS estimate for 2026 on file is $2.81. The average revenue estimate is $278.20 million.

What will VEL be worth in 2030?

No reliable forecast exists that far out.

When is Velocity Financial's next earnings report?

The next earnings date is shown on the stock page when a future report is on the calendar. This forecast does not invent a date.

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Velocity Financial (VEL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

VEL$15.94+0.37 +2.38%

$629.33M

Market Cap

5.84

P/E

5.68

Forward P/E

55

Score

Price History