Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Insights

VNDA price $3.90 -0.09 -2.13%

Ticker
VNDA
Price
$3.90
Change
-0.09 -2.13%
Market cap ?
$236.11M
Beta ?
0.69
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology

Fair value

VNDA fair value $16.91. Price $3.90. Price is 77% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on more than 99% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 42.74M. Growth 15.16%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 60.46M. Net debt -72.23M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Model uncertainty high for this stock

Compare VNDA

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-10-28—-0.68—69.20M
2026-08-05-1.04-0.5850.53M61.92M
2026-05-06-0.82-0.5351.72M54.98M
2026-02-11-2.39-2.1857.22M59.27M
2025-10-29-0.38-0.3156.26M59.27M
2025-07-31-0.46-0.3452.59M58.73M
2025-05-07-0.50-0.5550.04M45.13M
2025-02-13-0.08-0.1453.19M52.25M
2024-11-06-0.09-0.1747.65M49.15M
2024-07-31-0.08-0.2150.47M50.73M
2024-05-08-0.070.0547.46M48.50M
2024-02-07-0.04-0.0945.27M37.00M
2023-11-080.000.0038.81M44.50M
2023-07-270.03-0.1346.06M50.50M
2023-05-030.06—62.50M—
2023-02-080.120.0864.48M67.60M
2022-11-020.060.0965.32M71.00M
2022-08-030.050.1164.39M67.00M
2022-05-05-0.11-0.0160.19M58.00M
2022-02-230.120.0968.02M70.04M
2021-11-030.140.1870.09M75.00M
2021-07-280.170.1467.90M75.00M
2021-05-050.150.1562.67M68.50M
2021-02-100.150.1467.65M62.82M
2020-10-280.110.1060.31M163.43M
2020-08-050.160.0462.21M15.55M
2020-05-060.010.0058.00M—
2020-02-250.080.1160.93M83.78M
2019-11-061.840.0759.48M2.26M
2019-07-310.210.0059.06M—
2019-05-010.060.0647.71M333.99M
2019-02-130.190.1353.04M2.79M
2018-11-070.200.0349.13M11.34M
2018-08-010.140.0647.35M94.70M
2018-05-020.14-0.0543.59M123.51M
2018-02-14-0.04-0.1244.28M132.83M
2017-11-07-0.10-0.1041.34M45.47M
2017-08-02-0.03-0.2142.06M392.52M
2017-05-02-0.17-0.1337.41M41.82M
2017-02-15-0.01-0.0938.24M344.20M

Dividends

Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.

Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
No data yet.

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-06-04McGuire Daniel PatrickBuy80.00K——
2026-06-04Chrousos PhaedraBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04Duncan Charles CliffBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04DUGAN RICHARD WBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04Ward Anne SempowskiBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04Honore TageBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04Mitchell Stephen RayBuy41.60K——
2026-06-04McGuire Daniel PatrickOther0——
2026-06-04McGuire Daniel PatrickOther0——
2026-06-04McGuire Daniel PatrickOther0——
2026-06-04McGuire Daniel PatrickOther0——
2026-05-18Mitchell Stephen RaySell25.84K——
2026-04-22Duncan Charles CliffBuy57.10K——
2026-04-22Duncan Charles CliffOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther0——
2026-04-01Polymeropoulos Christos Vasilios MihaelOther61.20K$7.05431.46K
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther0——
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther77.50K$7.05546.38K
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther61.20K$11.36695.23K
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther28.60K$20.28580.01K
2026-04-01Howell Scott LaverneOther25.00K$11.32283.00K
2026-03-02Williams TimothySell42.43K$8.27350.76K
2026-03-02Moran Kevin PatrickSell42.44K$8.27350.82K
2026-03-02Wijkstrom JoakimSell30.80K$8.27254.59K
2026-03-02Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosSell156.24K$8.171.28M
2026-03-02Birznieks GuntherSell42.43K$8.27350.73K
2026-02-23Honore TageSell30.00K$8.03240.90K
2026-02-18Wijkstrom JoakimBuy125.00K——
2026-02-18Birznieks GuntherBuy125.00K——
2026-02-18Williams TimothyBuy125.00K——
2026-02-18Moran Kevin PatrickBuy125.00K——
2026-02-18Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy525.00K——
2025-08-07Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy10.00K$4.1541.50K
2025-06-13Mitchell Stephen RaySell7.00K$4.5932.13K
2025-06-05Mitchell Stephen RayBuy59.23K——
2025-06-05Chrousos PhaedraBuy59.23K——
2025-06-05DUGAN RICHARD WBuy59.23K——
2025-06-05Honore TageBuy59.23K——
2025-06-05Ward Anne SempowskiBuy59.23K——
2025-05-21Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy481$4.392.11K
2025-05-21Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy9.52K$4.4041.88K
2025-05-16Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy20.00K$4.2284.47K
2025-03-06Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$5.0125.05K
2025-03-06Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$5.0225.10K
2025-03-05Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$5.0325.15K
2025-03-05Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$5.0125.05K
2025-03-03Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy10.00K$4.7147.05K
2025-03-01Wijkstrom JoakimSell15.52K$4.7673.88K
2025-03-01Birznieks GuntherSell26.94K$4.76128.24K
2025-03-01Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosSell96.00K$4.76456.96K
2025-03-01Moran Kevin PatrickSell26.94K$4.76128.24K
2025-03-01Williams TimothySell26.94K$4.76128.24K
2025-02-28Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy10.00K$4.7647.60K
2025-02-27Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy10.00K$4.7647.60K
2025-02-26Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$4.7823.90K
2025-02-26Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy5.00K$4.7523.75K
2025-02-25Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy10.00K$4.4644.64K
2025-02-21Moran Kevin PatrickBuy2.00K$4.398.78K
2025-02-18Wijkstrom JoakimBuy125.00K——
2025-02-18Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy450.00K——
2025-02-18Moran Kevin PatrickBuy125.00K——
2025-02-18Birznieks GuntherBuy125.00K——
2025-02-18Williams TimothyBuy125.00K——
2024-11-14Mitchell Stephen RaySell5.00K$5.1725.86K
2024-07-29Moran Kevin PatrickSell2.25K$5.9213.33K
2024-05-22Chrousos PhaedraBuy21.89K——
2024-05-22Chrousos PhaedraBuy40.20K$5.14206.64K
2024-05-17Honore TageBuy20.53K——
2024-05-17Honore TageBuy37.58K$5.48205.93K
2024-05-17DUGAN RICHARD WBuy20.53K——
2024-05-17DUGAN RICHARD WBuy37.58K$5.48205.93K
2024-05-17Mitchell Stephen RayBuy20.53K——
2024-05-17Mitchell Stephen RayBuy37.58K$5.48205.93K
2024-05-17Ward Anne SempowskiBuy20.53K——
2024-05-17Ward Anne SempowskiBuy37.58K$5.48205.93K
2024-03-05Williams TimothySell8.94K$4.1837.40K
2024-03-05Wijkstrom JoakimSell9.23K$4.2138.83K
2024-03-05Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosSell24.29K$4.13100.27K
2024-03-05Moran Kevin PatrickSell8.90K$4.2037.41K
2024-03-05Birznieks GuntherSell8.68K$4.1335.88K
2024-03-04Williams TimothySell8.15K$4.4135.92K
2024-03-04Wijkstrom JoakimSell7.50K$4.4133.09K
2024-03-04Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosSell30.88K$4.24131.07K
2024-03-04Moran Kevin PatrickSell5.80K$4.4825.98K
2024-03-04Birznieks GuntherSell8.73K$4.3037.49K
2024-02-16Williams TimothyBuy125.00K——
2024-02-16Wijkstrom JoakimBuy32.70K——
2024-02-16Moran Kevin PatrickBuy125.00K——
2024-02-16Polymeropoulos Mihael HristosBuy450.00K——
2024-02-16Birznieks GuntherBuy125.00K——
2023-08-21Wijkstrom JoakimSell3.72K$5.8421.75K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 177, holders +2 vs prior quarter. Ownership 83.57%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.7.65M377.75K+5.19%46.84M
STATE STREET CORP3.52M500.84K+16.61%21.52M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC3.50M1.89M+118.12%21.41M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC3.44M-318.20K-8.46%21.06M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.52M42.55K+1.71%15.45M
AIGH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.04M-705.83K-25.67%12.51M
ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC1.92M122.47K+6.82%11.73M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP1.73M-44.24K-2.50%10.57M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC1.60M-278.19K-14.79%9.81M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC1.48M40.82K+2.83%9.08M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP1.35M-49.13K-3.51%8.26M
MARSHALL WACE, LLP1.23M629.99K+105.70%7.50M
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC1.21M44.65K+3.82%7.43M
KRENSAVAGE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC1.18M00.00%7.22M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC1.13M116.51K+11.48%6.92M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC1.04M198.03K+23.62%6.34M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC758.30K697.80K+1153.39%4.64M
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD729.21K729.21KNew4.46M
FEDERATED HERMES, INC.714.28K138.89K+24.14%4.37M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.646.26K646.26KNew3.96M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC646.26K94.49K+17.12%3.96M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP600.62K149.64K+33.18%3.68M
MORGAN STANLEY477.97K37.18K+8.43%2.93M
LIONHUNTER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC400.25K400.25KNew2.45M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO399.82K11.85K+3.06%2.45M

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Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Insights

VNDA$3.90-0.09 -2.13%

$236.11M

Market Cap

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P/E

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Forward P/E

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Score

Price History