XP Inc. (XP)
XP price $15.71 -14.71 -48.36%
- Ticker
- XP
- Price
- $15.71
- Change
- -14.71 -48.36%
- Market cap ?
- $8.12B
- P/E ?
- 8.27
- Forward P/E ?
- 1.42
- Dividend yield ?
- 2.42%
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Capital Markets
- Stocklytics score
- 59
- Value
- 74
- Quality
- 46
- Growth
- 58
Stocklytics score rationale: value 74, quality 46, growth 58.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1175913534 | 1997093415 | 3157186289 | 5166770023 | 8595728416 | 12974205794 | 14180430520 | 14817445957 | 19870005560 | 18238085394 |
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. The company operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds…
Fair value
XP fair value $654.81. Price $15.71. Price is 98% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on more than 99% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 21.52B. Growth 14.24% in year 1, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, kept between 0% and 20%. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 9.97% (beta 1.0). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. Years 1 to 5 grow at the year-1 rate, and years 6 to 10 fade in a straight line to terminal growth of 3%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 517.02M. Net debt 74.94B. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, kept between 8 and 40. Fewer than five years of history uses the sector's typical P/E. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Model uncertainty high for this stock
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-16 | — | 0.53 | — | 983.12M |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 941.64M | 935.15M |
| 2026-05-18 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 909.68M | 925.72M |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 901.58M | 866.10M |
| 2025-11-17 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 847.03M | 875.60M |
| 2025-08-18 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 806.82M | 832.08M |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 739.55M | 779.16M |
| 2025-02-18 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 723.75M | 719.34M |
| 2024-11-19 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 796.92M | 801.96M |
| 2024-08-13 | 0.39 | 1.98 | 834.22M | 736.48M |
| 2024-05-21 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 825.62M | 809.26M |
| 2024-02-27 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 832.26M | 841.71M |
| 2023-11-13 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 852.38M | 156.08M |
| 2023-08-14 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 731.07M | 144.41M |
| 2023-05-15 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 610.30M | 125.70M |
| 2023-02-16 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 598.55M | 676.99M |
| 2022-11-08 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 698.25M | 630.13M |
| 2022-08-09 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 697.90M | 654.03M |
| 2022-05-03 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 599.87M | 714.41M |
| 2022-02-08 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 583.87M | 578.45M |
| 2021-11-03 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 609.88M | 1.63B |
| 2021-08-03 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 586.99M | 2.83B |
| 2021-05-04 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 483.84M | 451.72M |
| 2021-02-23 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 461.95M | 1.32B |
| 2020-11-09 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 426.45M | 1.24B |
| 2020-08-11 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 365.44M | 1.37B |
| 2020-05-12 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 393.93M | 1.34B |
| 2019-12-11 | 0.11 | — | 347.85M | — |
| 2019-06-30 | 0.11 | — | 298.68M | — |
| 2019-03-31 | 0.10 | — | 270.12M | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 0.07 | — | 271.52M | — |
Dividends
Yield 2.42%. Payout ratio 19.04%. Frequency Semi-Annual.
Safety score 87/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 19% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 4 separate years. Yield is 2.4%, in a range that is usually sustainable.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | $0.20 | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-18 | Semi-Annual |
| 2025-12-10 | $0.18 | 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-18 | Annual |
| 2024-12-10 | $0.65 | 2024-12-10 | 2024-12-18 | Annual |
| 2023-12-12 | $0.73 | 2023-12-13 | 2023-12-22 | Quarterly |
| 2023-09-11 | $0.58 | 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-25 | Irregular |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Kede de Freitas Lima Rodrigo | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Dos Santos Bruno Constantino Alexandre | Sell | 123.26K | $19.58 | 2.41M |
| 2026-08-03 | Viviani Gustavo Alejo | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | Majolo Jose Luiz | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Benchimol Guilherme Dias Fernandes | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Benchimol Guilherme Dias Fernandes | Other | 101.75M | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | RODRIGUEZ OSCAR | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Maffra Thiago Simoes | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Escobari Martin | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Botelho Bernardo Amaral | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Farinassi Victor Andreu Mansur | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Dos Santos Bruno Constantino Alexandre | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | De Almeida Fabricio Cunha | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Leal Gabriel Klas da Rocha | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Benchimol Guilherme Dias Fernandes | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Da Silva Guilherme Sant'anna Monteiro | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Teixeira Joao Roberto Goncalves | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Pedro Jose Luiz Acar | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Werneck Melissa | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Berenguer Neto Jose De Menezes | Other | 0 | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 348, holders -35 vs prior quarter. Ownership 64.23%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 49.00M | 2.48M | +5.34% | 796.66M |
| DODGE & COX | 32.56M | -162.38K | -0.50% | 529.50M |
| ARGA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LP | 24.64M | 3.94M | +19.06% | 400.70M |
| GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | 20.57M | 0 | 0.00% | 334.41M |
| CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS | 19.37M | 267.37K | +1.40% | 314.97M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 12.56M | 227.70K | +1.85% | 205.51M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 9.70M | -68.19K | -0.70% | 157.65M |
| NINETY ONE UK LTD | 8.06M | 2.91K | +0.04% | 131.03M |
| FMR LLC | 7.98M | -1.11M | -12.21% | 129.70M |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 7.03M | -632.28K | -8.26% | 114.26M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | 6.53M | 3.29M | +101.48% | 106.16M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 6.49M | 508.99K | +8.51% | 105.53M |
| CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS | 5.04M | 36.87K | +0.74% | 81.92M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 4.83M | -315.72K | -6.13% | 78.56M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.85M | 71.46K | +1.50% | 78.43M |
| SPX GESTAO DE RECURSOS LTDA | 4.81M | 3.63M | +305.46% | 78.26M |
| FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INC | 4.47M | 1.46M | +48.26% | 72.69M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | 4.33M | 3.97M | +1126.94% | 70.36M |
| FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 4.11M | -295.08K | -6.70% | 66.76M |
| SEAFARER CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC | 3.91M | 140.00K | +3.71% | 63.59M |
| NORGES BANK | 3.72M | 3.72M | New | 60.52M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 3.17M | 186.07K | +6.24% | 51.51M |
| OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP | 3.12M | -55.20K | -1.74% | 50.68M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 3.05M | 858.55K | +39.16% | 49.61M |
| LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC | 2.81M | -9.39K | -0.33% | 45.64M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 13 analysts. Average price target $37.00, +135.6% versus the current price. Low $37.00. High $37.00.