Aura Minerals (AUGO) Fair Value & DCF
AUGO fair value $169.76. Price $81.31. Price is 52% below fair value.
Worked example
Cash-flow value. Starting free cash flow is $2.23 a share. Year 1 is the first earnings forecast, so it has no growth rate of its own. The forecast then reaches 12.27%, and that pace fades in a straight line to 3% terminal growth by year 10. The discount rate is 8.70% (beta 0.80). It is beta-adjusted and capped at 12%. The cash-flow value is $248.24 a share.
Earnings value. Next-twelve-months earnings per share of $7.36 times 12.39 is $91.27. The peer group is Gold, 13 companies worth at least $10 billion. This stock has no 10-year median P/E, so the peer median of 12.4 is kept between 8 and 30, which is 12.39.
Fair value is the average of the two, $169.76. The price is $81.31, which is 52.1% below fair value.