Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
AWI$162.49+5.83 +3.72%
$6.87B
Market Cap
20.92
P/E
19.40
Forward P/E
56
Score
Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
AWI price $162.49 +5.83 +3.72%
- Ticker
- AWI
- Price
- $162.49
- Change
- +5.83 +3.72%
- Market cap ?
- $6.87B
- P/E ?
- 20.92
- Forward P/E ?
- 19.40
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.87%
- Beta ?
- 1.16
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Stocklytics score
- 56
- Value
- 50
- Quality
- 64
- Growth
- 54
Stocklytics score rationale: value 50, quality 64, growth 54.
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 835900000 | 893500000 | 975300000 | 1038099999 | 936900000 | 1106600000 | 1233100000 | 1295200000 | 1445700000 | 1620800000 |
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) specializes in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of diverse ceiling systems, primarily catering to the construction and renovation needs of residential and commercial properties across the United States, Canada, and Latin America. The company operates through two main divisions: Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties. AWI's extensive product portfolio includes…
Fair value
AWI fair value $178.64. Price $162.49. Price is 9% below fair value.
Around fair value, but less expensive than usual. A smaller premium than on 78% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 226.70M. Growth 14.41%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 10.67% (beta 1.2). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 42.26M. Net debt 419.10M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-23 | — | 1.99 | — | 438.38M |
| 2026-10-27 | 2.26 | 2.39 | 475.80M | 472.62M |
| 2026-07-28 | 2.36 | 2.25 | 472.00M | 461.67M |
| 2026-04-28 | 1.69 | 1.82 | 410.00M | 409.46M |
| 2026-02-24 | 1.61 | 1.67 | 388.30M | 400.91M |
| 2025-10-28 | 2.05 | 1.99 | 425.20M | 400.87M |
| 2025-07-29 | 2.09 | 1.75 | 424.60M | 421.81M |
| 2025-04-29 | 1.66 | 1.55 | 382.70M | 402.02M |
| 2025-02-25 | 1.50 | 1.37 | 367.70M | 364.98M |
| 2024-10-29 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 386.60M | 351.48M |
| 2024-07-30 | 1.62 | 1.55 | 365.10M | 360.36M |
| 2024-04-30 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 326.30M | 319.44M |
| 2024-02-20 | 1.22 | 1.04 | 312.30M | 305.61M |
| 2023-10-24 | 1.60 | 1.31 | 347.30M | 330.15M |
| 2023-07-25 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 325.40M | 335.50M |
| 2023-04-25 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 310.20M | 310.83M |
| 2023-02-21 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 304.50M | 299.62M |
| 2022-10-25 | 1.36 | 1.47 | 325.00M | 330.36M |
| 2022-07-26 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 321.00M | 316.63M |
| 2022-04-26 | 1.02 | 1.15 | 282.60M | 290.92M |
| 2022-02-22 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 282.50M | 276.32M |
| 2021-10-26 | 1.17 | 1.28 | 292.20M | 317.31M |
| 2021-07-27 | 1.16 | 1.05 | 280.00M | 292.00M |
| 2021-04-27 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 251.90M | 241.43M |
| 2021-02-23 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 238.70M | 231.00M |
| 2020-10-27 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 246.30M | 216.99M |
| 2020-07-28 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 203.20M | 249.26M |
| 2020-04-27 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 248.70M | 250.96M |
| 2020-02-24 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 246.90M | 191.29M |
| 2019-10-28 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 277.10M | 261.04M |
| 2019-07-29 | 1.27 | 1.19 | 272.00M | 254.87M |
| 2019-04-29 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 242.10M | 206.89M |
| 2019-02-25 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 238.90M | 247.86M |
| 2018-10-30 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 260.50M | 281.62M |
| 2018-07-31 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 248.60M | 248.60M |
| 2018-04-30 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 227.30M | 233.05M |
| 2018-02-26 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 104.50M | 287.16M |
| 2017-10-30 | 0.86 | 0.90 | 351.90M | 244.78M |
| 2017-07-31 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 330.80M | 210.15M |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 315.40M | 223.80M |
Dividends
Yield 0.83%. Payout ratio 18.42%. Frequency Quarterly.
Safety score 91/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 18% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 12 separate years. Yield is 0.8%, which is modest.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | $0.37 | 2026-11-05 | 2026-11-19 | Quarterly |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.34 | 2026-08-05 | 2026-08-19 | Quarterly |
| 2026-05-11 | $0.34 | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-26 | Quarterly |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.34 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-19 | Quarterly |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.34 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-20 | Quarterly |
| 2025-08-07 | $0.31 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-21 | Quarterly |
| 2025-05-08 | $0.31 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-22 | Quarterly |
| 2025-03-06 | $0.31 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-20 | Quarterly |
| 2024-11-07 | $0.31 | 2024-11-07 | 2024-11-21 | Quarterly |
| 2024-08-08 | $0.28 | 2024-08-08 | 2024-08-22 | Quarterly |
| 2024-05-08 | $0.28 | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-23 | Quarterly |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.28 | 2024-02-29 | 2024-03-14 | Quarterly |
| 2023-11-01 | $0.28 | 2023-11-02 | 2023-11-16 | Quarterly |
| 2023-08-02 | $0.25 | 2023-08-03 | 2023-08-17 | Quarterly |
| 2023-05-03 | $0.25 | 2023-05-04 | 2023-05-18 | Quarterly |
| 2023-03-01 | $0.25 | 2023-03-02 | 2023-03-16 | Quarterly |
| 2022-11-02 | $0.25 | 2022-11-03 | 2022-11-17 | Quarterly |
| 2022-08-03 | $0.23 | 2022-08-04 | 2022-08-18 | Quarterly |
| 2022-05-04 | $0.23 | 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-19 | Quarterly |
| 2022-03-02 | $0.23 | 2022-03-03 | 2022-03-17 | Quarterly |
| 2021-11-03 | $0.23 | 2021-11-04 | 2021-11-18 | Quarterly |
| 2021-08-04 | $0.21 | 2021-08-05 | 2021-08-19 | Quarterly |
| 2021-05-05 | $0.21 | 2021-05-06 | 2021-05-20 | Quarterly |
| 2021-03-03 | $0.21 | 2021-03-04 | 2021-03-18 | Quarterly |
| 2020-11-04 | $0.21 | 2020-11-05 | 2020-11-19 | Quarterly |
| 2020-08-05 | $0.20 | 2020-08-06 | 2020-08-20 | Quarterly |
| 2020-05-06 | $0.20 | 2020-05-07 | 2020-05-21 | Quarterly |
| 2020-03-04 | $0.20 | 2020-03-05 | 2020-03-20 | Quarterly |
| 2019-11-06 | $0.20 | 2019-11-07 | 2019-11-21 | Quarterly |
| 2019-08-07 | $0.17 | 2019-08-08 | 2019-08-22 | Quarterly |
| 2019-05-08 | $0.17 | 2019-05-09 | 2019-05-23 | Quarterly |
| 2019-03-04 | $0.17 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-03-20 | Quarterly |
| 2018-12-03 | $0.17 | 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-14 | Quarterly |
| 2012-03-30 | $8.55 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-04-10 | Special |
| 2010-12-13 | $13.74 | 2010-12-03 | — | Special |
| 2008-03-07 | $4.50 | 2008-03-11 | 2008-03-31 | Special |
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | Buy | 1.18K | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | Buy | 1.50K | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | TEMPLIN ROY W | Buy | 1.26K | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Shurts Wayne | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Pitre Kathleen | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Osborne William H | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Loughran Barbara | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | HOLLERAN KEVIN | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Holder Richard D | Buy | 876 | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 72.82K | $169.84 | 12.37M |
| 2026-04-28 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 31.67K | $169.84 | 5.38M |
| 2026-04-28 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 72.82K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Winters Michael Carl | Buy | 3.74K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Winters Michael Carl | Sell | 1.63K | $172.77 | 281.44K |
| 2026-04-08 | Winters Michael Carl | Sell | 3.74K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Buy | 13.42K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 5.84K | $172.77 | 1.01M |
| 2026-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 13.42K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 97.83K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 42.55K | $172.77 | 7.35M |
| 2026-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 97.83K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Buy | 4.11K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 1.79K | $172.77 | 309.09K |
| 2026-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 4.11K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 9.15K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 3.98K | $172.77 | 687.62K |
| 2026-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 9.15K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Burge James T. | Buy | 2.02K | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Burge James T. | Sell | 877 | $172.77 | 151.52K |
| 2026-04-08 | Burge James T. | Sell | 2.02K | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Cicali Jessica Marie | Buy | 1.81K | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Cicali Jessica Marie | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Winters Michael Carl | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Winters Michael Carl | Other | 532 | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Cicali Jessica Marie | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 25.74K | $173.50 | 4.47M |
| 2026-02-27 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 10.34K | $173.50 | 1.79M |
| 2026-02-27 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 25.74K | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | Hershey Mark A | Buy | 3.53K | $173.50 | 612.80K |
| 2026-02-27 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 1.32K | $173.50 | 228.33K |
| 2026-02-27 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 3.53K | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 2.41K | $173.50 | 417.79K |
| 2026-02-27 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 1.08K | $173.50 | 186.86K |
| 2026-02-27 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 2.41K | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | Crager Jill A. | Buy | 1.08K | $173.50 | 187.73K |
| 2026-02-27 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 505 | $173.50 | 87.62K |
| 2026-02-27 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 1.08K | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | So Austin | Buy | 2.60K | $173.50 | 450.23K |
| 2026-02-27 | So Austin | Sell | 1.16K | $173.50 | 201.43K |
| 2026-02-27 | So Austin | Sell | 2.60K | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | Burge James T. | Buy | 639 | $173.50 | 110.87K |
| 2026-02-27 | Burge James T. | Sell | 216 | $173.50 | 37.48K |
| 2026-02-27 | Burge James T. | Sell | 639 | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | TEMPLIN ROY W | Buy | 575 | $173.91 | 100.00K |
| 2026-02-25 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 6.27K | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | Hershey Mark A | Buy | 7.67K | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 2.05K | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | Crager Jill A. | Buy | 1.19K | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | Burge James T. | Buy | 330 | — | — |
| 2025-11-21 | Osborne William H | Sell | 300 | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | HOLLERAN KEVIN | Buy | 435 | — | — |
| 2025-10-22 | HOLLERAN KEVIN | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-08-08 | Osborne William H | Sell | 100 | $188.78 | 18.88K |
| 2025-06-13 | TEMPLIN ROY W | Buy | 1.12K | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | Shurts Wayne | Buy | 827 | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | Pitre Kathleen | Buy | 827 | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | Osborne William H | Buy | 827 | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | Loughran Barbara | Buy | 827 | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | Holder Richard D | Buy | 827 | — | — |
| 2025-06-12 | Pitre Kathleen | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Burge James T. | Buy | 990 | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Burge James T. | Sell | 283 | $126.10 | 35.69K |
| 2025-04-08 | Burge James T. | Sell | 990 | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | So Austin | Buy | 8.05K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | So Austin | Sell | 3.02K | $126.10 | 380.44K |
| 2025-04-08 | So Austin | Sell | 8.05K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Buy | 3.35K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 1.46K | $126.10 | 183.98K |
| 2025-04-08 | Crager Jill A. | Sell | 3.35K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Buy | 16.54K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 6.83K | $126.10 | 860.76K |
| 2025-04-08 | Hershey Mark A | Sell | 16.54K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 3.17K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 2.11K | $126.10 | 265.57K |
| 2025-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 1.67K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Sell | 3.17K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 63.85K | — | — |
| 2025-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 27.45K | $126.10 | 3.46M |
| 2025-04-08 | Grizzle Victor | Sell | 63.85K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | So Austin | Buy | 1.67K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | Hershey Mark A | Buy | 2.22K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | Grizzle Victor | Buy | 14.19K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | Crager Jill A. | Buy | 1.34K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | Calzaretta Christopher P. | Buy | 1.97K | — | — |
| 2025-02-26 | Burge James T. | Buy | 325 | — | — |
| 2025-01-31 | So Austin | Buy | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2025-01-31 | So Austin | Sell | 410 | $151.01 | 61.91K |
| 2025-01-31 | So Austin | Sell | 1.27K | — | — |
| 2024-08-28 | Osborne William H | Sell | 800 | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 483, holders +2 vs prior quarter. Ownership 103.13%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 5.16M | -49.56K | -0.95% | 827.24M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 2.22M | -13.63K | -0.61% | 356.09M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.92M | 5.74K | +0.30% | 308.64M |
| LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA | 1.64M | -78.96K | -4.58% | 263.78M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 1.44M | 23.63K | +1.67% | 230.75M |
| BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ | 1.10M | -120.69K | -9.85% | 177.20M |
| FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. | 1.10M | 60.63K | +5.82% | 176.78M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.04M | 34.98K | +3.47% | 167.40M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 1.03M | 235.14K | +29.57% | 165.30M |
| EGERTON CAPITAL (UK) LLP | 925.39K | 477.36K | +106.54% | 148.45M |
| KAYNE ANDERSON RUDNICK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC | 894.08K | -90.24K | -9.17% | 143.43M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 869.85K | 26.89K | +3.19% | 139.54M |
| CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS | 794.51K | 18.42K | +2.37% | 127.45M |
| TIMUCUAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC/FL | 784.13K | 220.68K | +39.16% | 125.79M |
| NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC | 763.19K | -152.82K | -16.68% | 122.43M |
| YACKTMAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LP | 754.94K | 13.01K | +1.75% | 121.11M |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 711.60K | -407.96K | -36.44% | 114.09M |
| RIVER ROAD ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC | 694.21K | 415.55K | +149.13% | 111.37M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 583.20K | -200.56K | -25.59% | 93.56M |
| NORGES BANK | 562.41K | 562.41K | New | 90.22M |
| SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. | 528.21K | 528.21K | New | 84.73M |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | 528.21K | -6.57K | -1.23% | 84.73M |
| GATES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. | 513.28K | 15.02K | +3.01% | 82.34M |
| ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. | 494.82K | -246.17K | -33.22% | 79.38M |
| VAN BERKOM & ASSOCIATES INC. | 464.93K | 18.36K | +4.11% | 74.58M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 10 analysts. Average price target $211.00, +29.9% versus the current price. Low $190.00. High $230.00.
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