Birkenstock (BIRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target
BIRK$33.34+1.75 +5.54%
$5.93B
Market Cap
16.11
P/E
13.55
Forward P/E
70
Score
Birkenstock (BIRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target
BIRK price $33.34 +1.75 +5.54%
- Ticker
- BIRK
- Price
- $33.34
- Change
- +1.75 +5.54%
- Market cap ?
- $5.93B
- P/E ?
- 16.11
- Forward P/E ?
- 13.55
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 1.30
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- Stocklytics score
- 70
- Value
- 71
- Quality
- 68
- Growth
- 71
Stocklytics score rationale: value 71, quality 68, growth 71.
Financials
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 728548000 | 962125000 | 1242833000 | 1491911000 | 1804690000 | 2097429000 |
Birkenstock Holding plc specializes in the creation and distribution of various foot-related products. While renowned for its extensive collection of footwear, which includes sandals, shoes, and closed-toe designs, the company also expands its offerings to encompass skincare items and accessories. These products are made available to customers through a diverse range of channels, including its own online retail…
Fair value
BIRK fair value $58.45. Price $33.34. Price is 43% below fair value.
Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 99% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 283.87M. Growth 20.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 11.45% (beta 1.3). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 177.89M. Net debt 980.36M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 821.74M | 816.95M |
| 2026-05-13 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 714.40M | 716.62M |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 472.04M | 471.91M |
| 2025-12-18 | 0.60 | 0.42 | 616.47M | 613.14M |
| 2025-08-14 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 747.72M | 749.79M |
| 2025-05-15 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 629.61M | 613.79M |
| 2025-02-20 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 374.56M | 570.85M |
| 2024-12-18 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 499.85M | 488.65M |
| 2024-08-29 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 607.25M | 606.41M |
| 2024-05-30 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 520.03M | 502.96M |
| 2024-02-29 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 333.14M | 375.72M |
| 2024-01-18 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 395.93M | 375.72M |
| 2023-09-15 | 0.46 | — | 516.13M | — |
| 2023-03-31 | -0.13 | — | 184.03M | — |
| 2023-01-30 | 0.36 | — | 493.21M | — |
| 2022-09-30 | 0.31 | — | 314.07M | — |
| 2022-06-30 | 0.32 | — | 396.09M | — |
| 2022-03-31 | 0.50 | — | 382.57M | — |
| 2021-12-31 | -0.05 | — | 229.61M | — |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Pitcher Anne | Buy | 2.27K | — | — |
| 2026-10-01 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Buy | 2.27K | — | — |
| 2026-10-01 | Kumar Nisha | Buy | 2.27K | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | Chu James Michael | Sell | 28.15M | $39.18 | 1.10B |
| 2026-06-08 | Bouyakhf Mehdi Nico | Sell | 30.00K | $43.50 | 1.30M |
| 2026-06-05 | Bouyakhf Mehdi Nico | Sell | 60.00K | $42.07 | 2.52M |
| 2026-04-29 | Arnault Alexandre | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Arnault Alexandre | Sell | 690 | $37.50 | 25.88K |
| 2026-04-29 | Arnault Alexandre | Sell | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Kumar Nisha | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Kumar Nisha | Sell | 690 | $37.50 | 25.88K |
| 2026-04-29 | Kumar Nisha | Sell | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Sell | 744 | $37.50 | 27.90K |
| 2026-04-29 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Sell | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Pitcher Anne | Buy | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | Pitcher Anne | Sell | 325 | $37.50 | 12.19K |
| 2026-04-29 | Pitcher Anne | Sell | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Chu James Michael | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Thukral Nikhil | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Baumann Klaus | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Baum Markus | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Arnault Alexandre | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Arnault Alexandre | Other | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Pitcher Anne | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Pitcher Anne | Other | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Bach Volker | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Reichert Oliver | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Krolo Ivica | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kahan David | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Heesch Christian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Gutzy Jochen | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Bouyakhf Mehdi Nico | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kennedy Ruth Anne Francis | Other | 1.62K | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kumar Nisha | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | Kumar Nisha | Other | 1.62K | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 267, holders +14 vs prior quarter. Ownership 91.98%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATTERTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.L.C. | 99.42M | 0 | 0.00% | 4.28B |
| BAMCO INC /NY/ | 14.74M | 5.37M | +57.37% | 634.25M |
| T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. | 9.28M | -2.53M | -21.45% | 399.43M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 4.65M | 598.02K | +14.77% | 200.00M |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | 4.13M | 948.46K | +29.82% | 177.74M |
| WILLIAM BLAIR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | 2.87M | 290.49K | +11.28% | 123.32M |
| FMR LLC | 2.79M | -2.26M | -44.76% | 119.92M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 2.69M | 391.94K | +17.02% | 115.96M |
| NORGES BANK | 2.18M | 2.18M | New | 93.76M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 2.15M | -354.95K | -14.17% | 92.49M |
| WESTFIELD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LP | 1.97M | -371.66K | -15.89% | 84.65M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 1.66M | 775.41K | +87.39% | 71.55M |
| SWEDBANK AB | 1.60M | 0 | 0.00% | 68.85M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 1.39M | -171.74K | -10.99% | 59.83M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 1.15M | 381.02K | +49.79% | 49.32M |
| LUNATE CAPITAL LTD | 1.01M | 1.01M | New | 43.46M |
| UBS GROUP AG | 1.00M | -1.30M | -56.58% | 43.03M |
| ANOMALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | 936.37K | -478.87K | -33.84% | 40.29M |
| PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/ | 910.10K | 312.90K | +52.39% | 39.16M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 879.31K | -153.02K | -14.82% | 37.84M |
| CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | 857.75K | -654.07K | -43.26% | 36.91M |
| J. GOLDMAN & CO LP | 789.00K | 789.00K | New | 33.95M |
| ARTISAN PARTNERS LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 754.95K | -102.36K | -11.94% | 32.49M |
| MEDIOLANUM INTERNATIONAL FUNDS LTD | 717.85K | 717.85K | New | 31.16M |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 696.97K | -1.28M | -64.78% | 29.99M |
Forecast
Consensus Buy from 17 analysts. Average price target $46.65, +39.9% versus the current price. Low $35.00. High $55.00.
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