CF Industries (CF) Fair Value & DCF

CF$123.22+0.85 +0.70%
Agricultural InputsLarge CapValue StockGrowth StockHigh Quality
Compare
Market cap$18.02BEnterprise value$17.74BRevenue (TTM)$7.94BMarket positionTop 25%

Score

72
Bullish
Value
71
Quality
84
Growth
62

CF fair value $206.56. Price $123.22. Price is 40% below fair value.

Worked example

Cash-flow value. Starting free cash flow is $14.23 a share. Year 1 is the first earnings forecast, so it has no growth rate of its own. The forecast then reaches 7.56%, and that pace fades in a straight line to 3% terminal growth by year 10. The discount rate is 8.70% (beta 0.80). It is beta-adjusted and capped at 12%. The cash-flow value is $207.59 a share.

Earnings value. Next-twelve-months earnings per share of $11.99 times 17.14 is $205.53. The peer group is Basic Materials, 41 companies worth at least $10 billion. Peer median 17.7. Own 10-year median 16.6. The multiple used is the average of the two, kept between 8 and 30, which is 17.14.

Fair value is the average of the two, $206.56. The price is $123.22, which is 40.3% below fair value.

CF Industries (CF) Fair Value & DCF

CF price $123.22 +0.85 +0.70%

Ticker
CF
Price
$123.22
Change
+0.85 +0.70%
Market cap
$18.02B
P/E
8.20
Forward P/E
9.62
Dividend yield
1.88%
Beta
0.40
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stocklytics score
72
Value
71
Quality
84
Growth
62

Stocklytics score rationale: value 71, quality 84, growth 62.

AI Score 85. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has strong fundamentals with a net profit margin of 27.5% and a low price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 7.9, indicating good valuation

Fair value

CF fair value $206.56. Price $123.22. Price is 40% below fair value.

Below fair value, but more expensive than usual. A smaller discount than on 97% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price.

Fair value blends a 10-year DCF and an earnings multiple: the average of the DCF value and an earnings value from next-twelve-months EPS times 17.1, a blend of the Basic Materials median (17.7) and the stock's own 10-year median (16.6). How we calculate it →

Compare CF

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2027-02-17—3.57—2.01B
2026-11-042.873.001.86B1.77B
2026-08-054.735.632.22B2.45B
2026-05-063.992.631.99B1.84B
2026-02-182.992.431.87B1.78B
2025-11-052.192.161.66B1.67B
2025-08-062.372.501.89B1.80B
2025-05-071.851.481.66B1.54B
2025-02-191.891.541.52B1.50B
2024-10-301.341.181.37B1.28B
2024-08-072.301.841.57B1.52B
2024-05-010.901.521.47B1.46B
2024-02-141.581.571.57B1.64B
2023-11-020.851.021.27B1.29B
2023-08-022.712.251.77B1.36B
2023-05-012.902.522.01B2.00B
2023-02-154.284.302.61B2.83B
2022-11-022.273.332.32B2.37B
2022-08-016.196.033.39B3.53B
2022-05-044.214.352.87B2.60B
2022-02-153.273.552.54B2.56B
2021-11-030.960.971.36B1.38B
2021-08-091.151.571.59B1.59B
2021-05-050.730.601.05B1.08B
2021-02-170.400.111.10B999.64M
2020-11-04-0.130.05847.00M456.08M
2020-08-050.890.651.20B879.33M
2020-05-060.310.25971.00M783.06M
2020-02-120.250.261.05B826.48M
2019-10-300.370.351.04B1.25B
2019-07-311.120.861.50B1.01B
2019-05-010.270.281.00B875.87M
2019-02-130.210.451.13B2.43B
2018-10-310.130.141.04B1.12B
2018-08-010.630.451.30B928.57M
2018-05-020.240.26957.00M921.56M
2018-02-14-0.02-0.111.10B4.40B
2017-11-01-0.39-0.55870.00M1.20B
2017-08-020.10-0.081.12B449.60M
2017-05-030.050.091.04B414.80M

Dividends

Yield 1.70%. Payout ratio 17.78%. Frequency Quarterly.

Safety score 100/100 · Safe. Payout ratio is 18% of earnings. Dividends use less than 40% of free cash flow. Dividends were paid in 22 separate years. Yield is 1.7%, in a range that is usually sustainable.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2026-11-16$0.602026-11-162026-11-30Quarterly
2026-08-14$0.602026-08-142026-08-31Quarterly
2026-05-15$0.502026-05-152026-05-29Quarterly
2026-02-13$0.502026-02-132026-02-27Quarterly
2025-11-14$0.502025-11-142025-11-28Quarterly
2025-08-15$0.502025-08-152025-08-29Quarterly
2025-05-15$0.502025-05-152025-05-30Quarterly
2025-02-14$0.502025-02-142025-02-28Quarterly
2024-11-15$0.502024-11-152024-11-29Quarterly
2024-08-15$0.502024-08-152024-08-30Quarterly
2024-05-14$0.502024-05-152024-05-31Quarterly
2024-02-14$0.502024-02-152024-02-29Quarterly
2023-11-14$0.402023-11-152023-11-30Quarterly
2023-08-14$0.402023-08-152023-08-31Quarterly
2023-05-12$0.402023-05-152023-05-31Quarterly
2023-02-14$0.402023-02-152023-02-28Quarterly
2022-11-14$0.402022-11-152022-11-30Quarterly
2022-08-12$0.402022-08-152022-08-31Quarterly
2022-05-13$0.402022-05-162022-05-31Quarterly
2022-02-14$0.302022-02-152022-02-28Quarterly
2021-11-12$0.302021-11-152021-11-30Quarterly
2021-08-13$0.302021-08-162021-08-31Quarterly
2021-05-14$0.302021-05-172021-05-28Quarterly
2021-02-12$0.302021-02-162021-02-26Quarterly
2020-11-13$0.302020-11-162020-11-30Quarterly
2020-08-14$0.302020-08-172020-08-31Quarterly
2020-05-14$0.302020-05-152020-05-29Quarterly
2020-02-13$0.302020-02-142020-02-28Quarterly
2019-11-14$0.302019-11-152019-11-29Quarterly
2019-08-14$0.302019-08-152019-08-30Quarterly
2019-05-14$0.302019-05-152019-05-31Quarterly
2019-02-14$0.302019-02-152019-02-28Quarterly
2018-11-14$0.302018-11-152018-11-30Quarterly
2018-08-14$0.302018-08-152018-08-31Quarterly
2018-05-14$0.302018-05-152018-05-31Quarterly
2018-02-15$0.302018-02-162018-02-28Quarterly
2017-11-14$0.302017-11-152017-11-30Quarterly
2017-08-11$0.302017-08-152017-08-31Quarterly
2017-05-11$0.302017-05-152017-05-31Quarterly
2017-02-15$0.302017-02-172017-02-28Quarterly
2016-11-10$0.302016-11-152016-11-30Quarterly
2016-08-11$0.302016-08-152016-08-31Quarterly
2016-05-11$0.302016-05-132016-05-31Quarterly
2016-02-10$0.302016-02-122016-02-29Quarterly
2015-11-12$0.302015-11-162015-11-30Quarterly
2015-08-12$0.302015-08-142015-08-31Quarterly
2015-05-13$0.302015-05-152015-05-29Quarterly
2015-02-12$0.302015-02-172015-02-27Quarterly
2014-11-12$0.302014-11-142014-11-28Quarterly
2014-08-14$0.302014-08-182014-08-29Quarterly
2014-05-14$0.202014-05-162014-05-30Quarterly
2014-02-12$0.202014-02-142014-02-28Quarterly
2013-11-13$0.202013-11-152013-11-29Quarterly
2013-08-14$0.082013-08-162013-08-29Quarterly
2013-05-15$0.082013-05-172013-05-30Quarterly
2013-02-14$0.082013-02-192013-02-28Quarterly
2012-11-14$0.082012-11-162012-11-29Quarterly
2012-08-10$0.082012-08-142012-08-29Quarterly
2012-05-11$0.082012-05-152012-05-30Quarterly
2012-02-10$0.082012-02-142012-02-29Quarterly
2011-11-09$0.082011-11-142011-11-29Quarterly
2011-08-11$0.082011-08-152011-08-29Quarterly
2011-05-12$0.022011-05-162011-05-27Quarterly
2011-02-10$0.022011-02-142011-03-01Quarterly
2010-11-10$0.022010-11-152010-11-29Quarterly
2010-08-11$0.022010-08-132010-08-31Quarterly
2010-05-12$0.022010-05-142010-06-01Quarterly
2010-02-18$0.022010-02-162010-03-01Quarterly
2009-11-12$0.022009-11-162009-11-30Quarterly
2009-08-12$0.022009-08-142009-08-31Quarterly
2009-05-12$0.022009-05-142009-06-01Quarterly
2009-02-12$0.022009-02-172009-03-02Quarterly
2008-11-12$0.022008-11-142008-12-01Quarterly
2008-08-13$0.022008-08-152008-09-02Quarterly
2008-05-13$0.022008-05-152008-06-02Quarterly
2008-02-20$0.022008-02-222008-02-29Quarterly
2007-11-13$0.002007-11-152007-11-30Quarterly
2007-08-13$0.002007-08-152007-08-31Quarterly
2007-05-10$0.002007-05-142007-05-31Quarterly
2007-02-15$0.002007-02-202007-02-28Quarterly

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-05-26Scribner AndrewBuy6.46K——
2026-05-26Scribner AndrewOther0——
2026-04-28DeHaas Deborah LBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28Wagler Theresa EBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28EAVES JOHN WBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28Ellerbusch Susan ABuy1.39K——
2026-04-28Madrazo Yris JesusBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28Noonan Anne PBuy2.21K——
2026-04-28TOELLE MICHAELBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28White Celso L.Buy1.39K——
2026-04-28Williams Trevor LeighBuy4.18K——
2026-04-28Ahmed JavedBuy1.39K——
2026-04-28ARZBAECHER ROBERT CBuy1.39K——
2026-04-01Williams Trevor LeighOther0——
2026-03-17Mayer Erik M.Sell1.50K$124.69187.03K
2026-03-17Hoker Richard ASell3.50K$125.38438.70K
2026-03-17Frost Bert ASell6.00K$126.00756.00K
2026-03-17Will W AnthonySell17.65K——
2026-03-15Will W AnthonyBuy96.86K——
2026-03-15Will W AnthonySell33.16K——
2026-03-13Will W AnthonySell32.66K$130.624.27M
2026-03-13Will W AnthonySell20.37K$131.172.67M
2026-03-12Menzel Susan LSell18.04K$136.062.45M
2026-03-12Frost Bert ASell6.25K$136.69854.32K
2026-03-11Will W AnthonySell28.62K$118.643.40M
2026-03-09Frost Bert ASell5.53K$116.21643.11K
2026-03-06McGrane Michael PatrickSell3.67K$116.50427.09K
2026-03-06Mayer Erik M.Sell2.20K$116.25255.75K
2026-03-06Frost Bert ASell10.00K$119.011.19M
2026-03-05Will W AnthonySell57.36K$109.356.27M
2026-03-05Will W AnthonySell29.50K——
2026-03-05Menzel Susan LSell7.20K$111.00799.20K
2026-03-05Malik Ashraf KSell2.44K$111.00270.73K
2026-03-05Hoker Richard ASell6.18K$109.33676.10K
2026-03-05Dempsey Linda MSell864$107.0092.45K
2026-03-05ARZBAECHER ROBERT CSell5.00K——
2026-03-04Dempsey Linda MSell1.00K$106.00106.00K
2026-03-04Dempsey Linda MSell136$107.0014.55K
2026-03-03Will W AnthonySell30.41K$108.783.31M
2026-03-03Will W AnthonySell33.87K$109.323.70M
2026-03-03Menzel Susan LSell3.91K$106.09415.25K
2026-03-03McGrane Michael PatrickSell2.77K$105.36291.43K
2026-03-03ARZBAECHER ROBERT CSell5.00K——
2026-03-03ARZBAECHER ROBERT CSell1.60K——
2026-03-02Will W AnthonySell44.34K$103.614.59M
2026-03-02Will W AnthonySell45.87K$105.524.84M
2026-03-02Will W AnthonySell44.10K$106.594.70M
2026-03-02Will W AnthonySell1.95K$107.04208.72K
2026-03-02Menzel Susan LSell6.86K$104.00713.23K
2026-03-02Malik Ashraf KSell8.63K$103.08889.70K
2026-03-02Frost Bert ASell5.10K$105.99540.76K
2026-02-27McGrane Michael PatrickBuy1.26K——
2026-02-27McGrane Michael PatrickSell523$99.5452.06K
2026-02-27Mayer Erik M.Buy968——
2026-02-27Mayer Erik M.Sell284$99.5428.27K
2026-02-27Will W AnthonyBuy40.65K——
2026-02-27Will W AnthonySell18.01K$99.541.79M
2026-02-27Will W AnthonySell100.00K$99.069.91M
2026-02-27Will W AnthonySell1.15K$100.00114.80K
2026-02-27Menzel Susan LBuy6.97K——
2026-02-27Menzel Susan LSell3.05K$99.54304.00K
2026-02-27Malik Ashraf KBuy4.06K——
2026-02-27Malik Ashraf KSell1.62K$99.54161.75K
2026-02-27Hoker Richard ABuy1.97K——
2026-02-27Hoker Richard ASell5.62K$98.50553.57K
2026-02-27Hoker Richard ABuy3.48K——
2026-02-27Hoker Richard ASell1.51K$99.54150.40K
2026-02-27Hoker Richard ASell1.97K——
2026-02-27Dempsey Linda MBuy2.32K——
2026-02-27Dempsey Linda MSell1.03K$99.54102.53K
2026-02-27Dempsey Linda MSell1.00K$100.00100.00K
2026-02-27Frost Bert ABuy9.87K——
2026-02-27Frost Bert ASell4.34K$99.54431.70K
2026-02-27Bohn Christopher DBuy10.45K——
2026-02-27Bohn Christopher DSell4.60K$99.54457.68K
2026-02-26Menzel Susan LSell3.21K$97.00311.86K
2026-02-20Will W AnthonySell111.89K$100.2511.22M
2026-01-12Mayer Erik M.Other0——
2026-01-06McGrane Michael PatrickBuy6.15K——
2026-01-06Menzel Susan LBuy7.69K——
2026-01-06Hoker Richard ABuy3.33K——
2026-01-06Frost Bert ABuy10.76K——
2026-01-06Dempsey Linda MBuy2.56K——
2026-01-06Bohn Christopher DBuy38.44K——
2026-01-05McGrane Michael PatrickSell691$80.2655.46K
2026-01-05Malik Ashraf KSell1.04K$80.2683.63K
2026-01-05Will W AnthonySell10.06K$80.26807.74K
2026-01-05Menzel Susan LSell1.85K$80.26148.56K
2026-01-05Hoker Richard ABuy1.07K——
2026-01-05Hoker Richard ASell898$80.2672.07K
2026-01-05Hoker Richard ASell1.07K——
2026-01-05Frost Bert ASell2.62K$80.26210.12K
2026-01-05Dempsey Linda MSell697$80.2655.94K
2026-01-05Cameron Gregory DSell2.29K$80.26183.88K
2026-01-05Bohn Christopher DSell2.84K$80.26227.70K
2026-01-02Will W AnthonySell5.51K$80.13441.60K
2026-01-02Menzel Susan LSell1.09K$80.1387.74K
2026-01-02McGrane Michael PatrickSell639$80.1351.20K
2026-01-02Malik Ashraf KSell593$80.1347.52K
2026-01-02Hoker Richard ABuy540——

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 1.02K, holders +37 vs prior quarter. Ownership 104.36%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BLACKROCK, INC.13.03M838.08K+6.87%1.41B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC10.04M-11.48K-0.11%1.09B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC8.53M793.21K+10.25%923.77M
STATE STREET CORP8.53M643.59K+8.16%923.60M
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/8.47M945.96K+12.57%917.26M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC5.39M207.82K+4.01%629.98M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP3.63M-826.87K-18.54%393.15M
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS3.32M1.15M+53.02%359.63M
INVESCO LTD.3.14M152.27K+5.09%340.35M
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT GMBH3.11M473.10K+17.96%336.37M
NORTHERN TRUST CORP3.08M-24.42K-0.79%333.69M
NORGES BANK3.00M3.00MNew325.30M
FMR LLC2.59M-1.77M-40.61%280.14M
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC2.43M208.62K+9.40%262.79M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC2.35M538.11K+29.67%254.62M
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC2.29M-834.84K-26.69%248.28M
MORGAN STANLEY2.15M-221.32K-9.33%232.97M
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP1.84M104.94K+6.06%198.86M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP1.83M737.60K+67.78%197.67M
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC1.75M32.29K+1.88%189.14M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/1.72M-327.32K-15.98%186.35M
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.1.63M1.63MNew176.64M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC1.63M-9.62K-0.59%176.64M
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC1.62M-565.36K-25.87%175.39M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT1.58M122.33K+8.38%171.19M

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