Fossil Group (FOSL) Stock Insights
FOSL$6.64-0.01 -0.23%
$392.97M
Market Cap
-5.07
P/E
28.08
Forward P/E
—
Score
Fossil Group (FOSL) Stock Insights
FOSL price $6.64 -0.01 -0.23%
- Ticker
- FOSL
- Price
- $6.64
- Change
- -0.01 -0.23%
- Market cap ?
- $392.97M
- P/E ?
- -5.07
- Forward P/E ?
- 28.08
- Dividend yield ?
- 0.00%
- Beta ?
- 1.56
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
Financials
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3042371000 | 2788163000 | 2541488000 | 2217712000 | 1613343000 | 1870036000 | 1682439000 | 1412384000 | 1144990000 | 1004406000 |
Fossil Group, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, specializes in the global design, development, marketing, and distribution of consumer fashion accessories. Its extensive product range encompasses classic timepieces, cutting-edge smartwatches, various jewelry items, designer handbags, compact leather goods, fashionable belts, and sunglasses. Beyond its own collections, the company also manufactures and distributes…
Fair value
FOSL fair value $5.73. Price $6.64. Price is 16% above fair value.
Above fair value, and more expensive than usual. A larger premium than on 99% of days in the past 5 years.
Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.
Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 54.94M. Growth 0.00%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 12.00% (beta 1.6). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 59.14M. Net debt 186.40M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.
Earnings
| Date | EPS actual | EPS estimate | Revenue | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | — | -0.04 | — | 248.66M |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.13 | -0.35 | 209.70M | 199.33M |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.03 | -0.28 | 224.80M | 204.74M |
| 2026-03-11 | -0.15 | 0.02 | 280.50M | 249.30M |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.63 | -0.02 | 270.20M | 249.36M |
| 2025-08-13 | -0.10 | -0.25 | 220.39M | 226.70M |
| 2025-05-14 | -0.10 | — | 233.29M | — |
| 2025-03-12 | 0.39 | — | 342.30M | — |
| 2024-11-07 | -0.51 | — | 287.80M | — |
| 2024-08-08 | -0.47 | — | 259.99M | 435.50M |
| 2024-05-08 | -0.30 | — | 254.88M | 435.50M |
| 2024-03-13 | -0.30 | — | 421.30M | 435.50M |
| 2023-11-08 | -0.93 | — | 344.10M | 435.50M |
| 2023-08-09 | -0.40 | — | 322.00M | 435.50M |
| 2023-05-10 | -0.61 | — | 325.00M | 435.50M |
| 2023-03-08 | -0.14 | — | 499.10M | 435.50M |
| 2022-11-09 | 0.12 | — | 436.27M | — |
| 2022-08-10 | -0.33 | — | 371.20M | — |
| 2022-05-11 | -0.37 | — | 375.85M | 435.50M |
| 2022-03-09 | 0.64 | 0.26 | 604.20M | 632.53M |
| 2021-11-10 | 0.68 | — | 491.83M | — |
| 2021-08-11 | -0.06 | — | 410.90M | 435.50M |
| 2021-05-12 | -0.53 | — | 363.00M | — |
| 2021-03-10 | 0.11 | — | 528.10M | 333.50M |
| 2020-11-11 | 0.49 | — | 435.50M | — |
| 2020-08-12 | -0.28 | -1.71 | 259.00M | 1.93B |
| 2020-06-03 | -1.50 | -1.51 | 390.70M | 404.10M |
| 2020-02-26 | -0.06 | 0.84 | 711.60M | 18.74B |
| 2019-11-06 | -0.15 | 0.40 | 539.49M | 323.69M |
| 2019-08-07 | -0.04 | -0.07 | 501.40M | 626.74M |
| 2019-05-08 | -0.42 | -0.53 | 465.30M | 708.98M |
| 2019-02-13 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 786.90M | 849.25M |
| 2018-11-07 | 0.19 | -0.11 | 608.83M | 608.83M |
| 2018-08-07 | 0.17 | -0.48 | 576.60M | 1.93B |
| 2018-05-08 | -0.99 | -1.05 | 569.20M | 764.86M |
| 2018-02-13 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 920.80M | 575.50M |
| 2017-11-07 | 0.04 | -0.14 | 688.70M | 6.43B |
| 2017-08-08 | -0.23 | -0.28 | 596.80M | 571.93M |
| 2017-05-09 | -0.35 | -0.21 | 581.80M | 393.83M |
| 2017-02-14 | 1.03 | 1.18 | 959.20M | 1.10B |
Dividends
Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency —.
Safety score 37/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. No dividend history was found. There is no dividend yield.
| Ex-date | Dividend | Record | Payment | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet. | ||||
Insider trades
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Buy | 65.22K | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 65.22K | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Fogliato Franco | Sell | 295.12K | $6.90 | 2.04M |
| 2026-10-05 | Carriero Antonio | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Carriero Antonio | Other | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Freeze Shannon Rebecca | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Freeze Shannon Rebecca | Other | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Lakshmanan Venkataraman Lakshman | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Lakshmanan Venkataraman Lakshman | Other | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Hyne Randall Scott | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | Hyne Randall Scott | Other | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Nair Chandhu | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Nair Chandhu | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | DiGrande Sebastian | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | DiGrande Sebastian | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Edwards Pamela J | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Coulter Suzanne M | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Rey Marc | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 16.28K | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Edwards Pamela J | Buy | 7.21K | $5.58 | 40.22K |
| 2026-08-18 | Tifford Gail B | Sell | 55.67K | $5.49 | 305.62K |
| 2026-05-18 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 24.33K | $4.14 | 100.73K |
| 2026-04-15 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 750.00K | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 225.00K | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | Greben Randy J | Sell | 33.87K | $5.40 | 182.89K |
| 2026-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Buy | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 11.64K | $5.40 | 62.86K |
| 2026-04-15 | Martin Joe T | Buy | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | Martin Joe T | Sell | 21.72K | $5.40 | 117.27K |
| 2026-03-16 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 21.93K | $4.68 | 102.63K |
| 2026-03-16 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 21.93K | $4.68 | 102.63K |
| 2026-03-03 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 72.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Fogliato Franco | Sell | 72.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Martin Joe T | Buy | 30.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Martin Joe T | Sell | 30.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Buy | 28.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 28.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 28.00K | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Greben Randy J | Sell | 28.00K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Corrie Pamela B | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Tifford Gail B | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | MANSELL KEVIN | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Rey Marc | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Coulter Suzanne M | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Edwards Pamela J | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 30.58K | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | Coulter Suzanne M | Buy | 28.17K | $3.62 | 101.98K |
| 2025-11-24 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 20.98K | $2.38 | 49.93K |
| 2025-11-21 | Edwards Pamela J | Buy | 10.00K | $2.37 | 23.70K |
| 2025-11-20 | Tifford Gail B | Buy | 33.00K | $2.40 | 79.20K |
| 2025-11-20 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 41.32K | $2.47 | 102.07K |
| 2025-11-18 | Martin Joe T | Buy | 56.18K | $1.78 | 100.00K |
| 2025-11-18 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 100.00K | $1.82 | 182.00K |
| 2025-11-18 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 50.00K | $1.75 | 87.50K |
| 2025-11-18 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 50.00K | $1.80 | 90.00K |
| 2025-05-16 | Edwards Pamela J | Buy | 2.47K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Buy | 2.47K | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Edwards Pamela J | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | Schoppert Wendy Lee | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 150.00K | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Greben Randy J | Buy | 105.00K | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Martin Joe T | Buy | 129.58K | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Martin Joe T | Buy | 112.50K | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Buy | 105.00K | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 5.93K | $0.97 | 5.75K |
| 2025-04-15 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 270.00K | — | — |
| 2025-03-21 | Martin Joe T | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-03-17 | Greben Randy J | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2025-01-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 1.98K | $1.71 | 3.38K |
| 2024-11-27 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 138.82K | $1.49 | 206.85K |
| 2024-11-26 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 111.17K | $1.37 | 152.31K |
| 2024-11-07 | Skobe Andrew R | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-10-15 | Fogliato Franco | Buy | 1.50M | — | — |
| 2024-09-18 | Fogliato Franco | Other | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | BELGYA MARK R | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | Corrie Pamela B | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | Tifford Gail B | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | Coulter Suzanne M | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | MANSELL KEVIN | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | Rey Marc | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | Jones Kim Harris | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | DAVIS EUGENE I | Buy | 25.00K | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 4.65K | $0.88 | 4.09K |
| 2024-04-15 | BOYER JEFFREY N | Buy | 40.71K | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | BOYER JEFFREY N | Sell | 9.42K | $0.88 | 8.29K |
| 2024-04-15 | Hart Darren E. | Buy | 29.87K | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | Hart Darren E. | Sell | 10.13K | $0.88 | 8.92K |
| 2024-04-15 | Doshi Sunil M | Buy | 24.52K | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | Doshi Sunil M | Sell | 8.94K | $0.88 | 7.87K |
| 2024-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Buy | 15.77K | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 4.65K | $88.00 | 408.94K |
| 2024-03-24 | DAVIS EUGENE I | Buy | 5.93K | — | — |
| 2024-03-24 | DAVIS EUGENE I | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-03-24 | Corrie Pamela B | Buy | 5.93K | — | — |
| 2024-03-24 | Corrie Pamela B | Sell | 0 | — | — |
| 2024-01-15 | Lowenkron Melissa B | Sell | 1.98K | $1.33 | 2.63K |
| 2023-07-15 | Doshi Sunil M | Sell | 3.25K | $2.65 | 8.60K |
| 2023-07-15 | Briedis Holly | Sell | 2.28K | $2.65 | 6.05K |
| 2023-05-24 | Tifford Gail B | Buy | 35.48K | — | — |
| 2023-05-24 | Coulter Suzanne M | Buy | 35.48K | — | — |
Institutional holders
Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.
Institutions holding: 116, holders +22 vs prior quarter. Ownership 64.69%.
| Holder | Shares | Change | Change % | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NANTAHALA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 5.51M | 101.10K | +1.87% | 22.79M |
| BLACKROCK, INC. | 3.69M | 2.84M | +333.39% | 15.26M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 2.39M | 257.79K | +12.09% | 9.89M |
| HG VORA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 2.16M | 0 | 0.00% | 8.96M |
| MILLER VALUE PARTNERS, LLC | 2.14M | -281.74K | -11.62% | 8.87M |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | 1.77M | 645.74K | +57.21% | 7.35M |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 1.66M | 644.89K | +63.32% | 6.88M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 1.36M | 761.52K | +126.48% | 5.65M |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | 1.36M | -2.95K | -0.22% | 5.62M |
| AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC | 1.32M | 156.96K | +13.54% | 5.45M |
| PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. | 979.89K | 0 | 0.00% | 4.06M |
| KANEN WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC | 872.80K | -260.00K | -22.95% | 3.66M |
| QUINN OPPORTUNITY PARTNERS LLC | 741.26K | -25.00K | -3.26% | 3.07M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | 630.54K | 597.24K | +1793.52% | 2.61M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | 608.02K | -1.06M | -63.65% | 2.52M |
| STATE STREET CORP | 600.93K | 358.18K | +147.55% | 2.49M |
| BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 560.70K | 9.90K | +1.80% | 2.32M |
| FUND 1 INVESTMENTS, LLC | 536.98K | 536.98K | New | 2.22M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | 520.46K | -42.40K | -7.53% | 2.15M |
| SECURITY NATIONAL BANK | 493.20K | 493.20K | New | 2.04M |
| STOREBRAND ASSET MANAGEMENT AS | 449.42K | 0 | 0.00% | 1.86M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 439.39K | 313.98K | +250.36% | 1.82M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 366.98K | 366.98K | New | 1.52M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 360.80K | 34.62K | +10.62% | 1.49M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | 360.55K | 54.82K | +17.93% | 1.49M |
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