El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Stock Insights

LOCO price $14.77 +0.15 +0.99%

Ticker
LOCO
Price
$14.77
Change
+0.15 +0.99%
Market cap ?
$449.35M
Beta ?
0.67
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Restaurants

Fair value

LOCO fair value $16.39. Price $14.77. Price is 10% below fair value.

Below fair value, and cheaper than usual. A larger discount than on 69% of days in the past 5 years.

Fair value is an estimate of what one share is worth if future cash flows arrive as modeled. It is not a forecast of the share price. How discounted cash flow works.

Calculated with a 10-year free-cash-flow discount. Starting free cash flow 41.01M. Growth 8.01%. When analyst earnings forecasts are available, free cash flow in those years is forecast earnings times the company's usual conversion of earnings into free cash flow, kept between 60% and 130%. Years with fewer than 3 analyst estimates are left out. Growth then fades in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10, starting from the last well-covered year's growth, or from the pace across those years when the final year slows sharply, kept between 0% and 20%. Without those forecasts, year-1 growth is analyst revenue growth for the next full fiscal year, or 5-year historical revenue growth when that forecast is missing, held for five years, then fading in a straight line to terminal growth by year 10. Terminal growth 3.00%. Discount rate 8.70% (beta 0.8). Beta is kept between 0.8 and 2.0, which on its own would make the discount rate 8.7% to 15.3%. The rate is then capped at 12%. A cap is used because a discount above 12% pushes higher-beta stocks further from the price. The discount rate stays at least 5 percentage points above terminal growth. Shares 30.43M. Net debt 233.34M. The earnings value is next-12-months earnings per share, or trailing earnings when that forecast is missing, times the median P/E of the company's industry. That median uses listed stocks worth at least $10 billion with a positive P/E of 100 or below, and the industry needs at least eight of them. Otherwise the sector median is used when that group also has at least eight, then the market median of those large companies. The multiple used is the lower of that median and 1.25 times the stock's own 10-year median P/E, then kept between 8 and 30. If the stock has no 10-year median, the peer median is kept between 8 and 30. Fair value is the average of the cash-flow value and the earnings value when both exist. Card and credit companies use the earnings value only, because changes in customer receivables distort free cash flow. Model uncertainty is high when fair value is more than 60% from the price, or when most of the cash-flow value sits after year 10.

Compare LOCO

Earnings

DateEPS actualEPS estimateRevenueRevenue estimate
2026-11-05—0.24—127.03M
2026-08-060.300.28129.57M130.29M
2026-05-070.280.22126.18M122.02M
2026-03-120.250.21123.52M122.58M
2025-10-300.270.23121.52M122.18M
2025-07-310.280.25125.83M124.81M
2025-05-010.190.20119.18M118.20M
2025-03-060.200.14114.28M113.19M
2024-10-310.210.17120.39M113.24M
2024-08-010.260.21122.18M120.39M
2024-05-020.220.14116.15M111.08M
2024-03-070.160.16112.25M109.07M
2023-11-020.190.18120.40M110.51M
2023-08-030.230.21121.49M124.74M
2023-05-040.140.11114.53M113.43M
2023-03-090.160.14115.92M115.35M
2022-11-030.140.12119.88M115.75M
2022-08-040.210.19124.11M125.22M
2022-05-040.070.07110.05M106.69M
2022-03-100.170.12108.96M108.46M
2021-11-040.270.22115.70M122.62M
2021-08-050.290.26121.98M121.98M
2021-05-060.130.12107.72M111.61M
2021-03-110.160.15110.34M—
2020-10-290.280.22110.98M248.09M
2020-07-300.200.0599.60M24.90M
2020-04-300.160.11105.16M65.73M
2020-03-050.180.15107.55M95.60M
2019-10-310.200.18112.07M100.86M
2019-08-010.230.21113.74M103.85M
2019-05-020.150.16108.98M116.24M
2019-03-070.160.14106.26M92.98M
2018-11-010.190.18112.18M106.27M
2018-08-020.220.22111.63M111.60M
2018-05-030.170.16105.76M105.80M
2018-03-080.110.1095.20M86.55M
2017-11-020.150.18101.16M121.44M
2017-08-030.210.20105.57M100.57M
2017-05-040.160.1499.77M87.33M
2017-03-090.120.1392.48M100.21M

Dividends

Yield 0.00%. Payout ratio 0.00%. Frequency Special.

Safety score 43/100 · Watch. Payout ratio is 0% of earnings. Free-cash-flow coverage is not available, so this part stays neutral. Dividend history is short. There is no dividend yield.

Ex-dateDividendRecordPaymentFrequency
2022-10-21$1.502022-10-242022-11-09Special

Insider trades

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-10-16BIGLARI, SARDARSell25.56K$16.50421.67K
2026-08-23Fils IraSell7.21K$16.03115.62K
2026-08-07BIGLARI, SARDARSell550$17.069.38K
2026-08-07BIGLARI, SARDARSell550$17.069.38K
2026-08-05BIGLARI, SARDARSell40.00K$16.90676.00K
2026-08-05BIGLARI, SARDARSell40.00K$16.90676.00K
2026-08-03BIGLARI, SARDARSell10.00K$16.73167.30K
2026-08-03BIGLARI, SARDARSell10.00K$16.73167.30K
2026-07-30BIGLARI, SARDARSell273$16.704.56K
2026-07-30BIGLARI, SARDARSell273$16.704.56K
2026-07-29BIGLARI, SARDARSell3.31K$16.7155.24K
2026-07-29BIGLARI, SARDARSell3.31K$16.7155.23K
2026-07-17BIGLARI, SARDARSell11.00K$16.71183.81K
2026-07-16BIGLARI, SARDARSell2.75K$16.7045.91K
2026-07-15BIGLARI, SARDARSell6.53K$16.71109.17K
2026-07-14BIGLARI, SARDARSell1.21K$16.7320.26K
2026-07-13BIGLARI, SARDARSell75.00K$16.741.26M
2026-07-02BIGLARI, SARDARSell9.53K$16.92161.16K
2026-07-01BIGLARI, SARDARSell132.42K$17.272.29M
2026-06-30BIGLARI, SARDARSell22.60K$16.91382.17K
2026-06-29BIGLARI, SARDARSell100.00K$16.581.66M
2026-06-26BIGLARI, SARDARSell100.00K$16.751.68M
2026-05-29Fils IraSell2.14K$13.9529.91K
2026-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell10.52K$13.95146.80K
2026-05-09Fils IraSell2.48K$14.0034.66K
2026-03-17Wright Robert D.Buy8.26K——
2026-03-17DAVILA TANABuy8.26K——
2026-03-17GARRIDO FRANKBuy8.26K——
2026-03-17Gonzalez DeborahBuy8.26K——
2026-03-17Faginas Cody NancyBuy8.26K——
2026-03-17BABB DOUGLAS JBuy12.01K——
2026-03-17Taylor Joseph GBuy8.26K——
2026-03-17Fils IraBuy15.02K——
2026-03-17Fils IraBuy32.63K$13.32434.58K
2026-03-17Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy53.80K——
2026-03-17Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy116.91K$13.321.56M
2026-03-11Fils IraSell2.30K$11.1025.49K
2026-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell12.27K$11.10136.22K
2026-03-01GARRIDO FRANKOther0——
2026-01-01DAVILA TANAOther0——
2026-01-01Wright Robert D.Other0——
2025-12-31Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy42.82K——
2025-12-31Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell7.68K$10.5080.66K
2025-08-23Fils IraSell4.78K$10.6851.09K
2025-06-06Buller MarkSell11.36K$11.00124.99K
2025-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell10.92K$9.90108.15K
2025-05-29Fils IraSell2.14K$9.9021.18K
2025-05-29Hollandsworth MariaSell2.78K$9.9027.52K
2025-05-15Hollandsworth MariaSell8.10K$9.5076.90K
2025-05-09Fils IraSell2.47K$9.0122.25K
2025-05-09Hollandsworth MariaSell1.24K$9.0111.13K
2025-03-11Borgese Samuel N.Buy8.64K——
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy68.78K——
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell4.03K$10.4242.02K
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy145.37K$10.421.51M
2025-03-11Borgese Samuel N.Buy8.64K——
2025-03-11Taylor Joseph GBuy8.64K——
2025-03-11Buller MarkBuy8.64K——
2025-03-11BABB DOUGLAS JBuy8.64K——
2025-03-11Faginas Cody NancyBuy8.64K——
2025-03-11Hollandsworth MariaBuy12.00K$10.42125.00K
2025-03-11Hollandsworth MariaBuy25.36K$10.42264.20K
2025-03-11FLOYD WILLIAM RBuy13.44K——
2025-03-11Fils IraBuy19.19K——
2025-03-11Fils IraBuy40.57K$10.42422.72K
2025-03-11Gonzalez DeborahBuy8.64K——
2025-03-07Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy45.38K——
2025-03-07Williams Elizabeth GoodmanSell5.58K$10.6359.27K
2025-01-13Taylor Joseph GOther0——
2024-11-07Fils IraSell6.66K$12.9185.97K
2024-11-07Hollandsworth MariaSell9.13K$12.91117.82K
2024-08-23Fils IraSell4.73K$13.3663.21K
2024-08-22BIGLARI, SARDARBuy4.52K$13.4860.88K
2024-08-21BIGLARI, SARDARBuy43.16K$13.59586.56K
2024-08-20BIGLARI, SARDARBuy100.00K$13.421.34M
2024-08-19BIGLARI, SARDARBuy62.33K$13.46838.95K
2024-08-16BIGLARI, SARDARBuy21.32K$13.13280.00K
2024-08-15BIGLARI, SARDARBuy50.55K$13.00657.20K
2024-08-14BIGLARI, SARDARBuy62.36K$12.47777.65K
2024-08-13Biglari Reinsurance Ltd.Other0——
2024-08-13Biglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell0——
2024-08-08Buller MarkSell10.50K$11.76123.48K
2024-05-29Fils IraBuy23.90K——
2024-05-29Fils IraBuy47.62K$10.46498.09K
2024-05-29Hollandsworth MariaBuy31.07K——
2024-05-29Hollandsworth MariaBuy61.91K$10.46647.53K
2024-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy171.43K$10.461.79M
2024-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmanBuy86.04K——
2024-05-29BABB DOUGLAS JBuy8.60K——
2024-05-29Borgese Samuel N.Buy8.60K——
2024-05-29Buller MarkBuy8.60K——
2024-05-29Faginas Cody NancyBuy8.60K——
2024-05-29FLOYD WILLIAM RBuy13.38K——
2024-05-29Gonzalez DeborahBuy8.60K——
2024-05-15Borgese Samuel N.Sell1.14K$11.0112.55K
2024-05-15Hollandsworth MariaBuy45.25K——
2024-05-13Borgese Samuel N.Sell1.90K$10.9620.80K
2024-05-09Borgese Samuel N.Sell9.93K$10.48104.11K
2024-05-09Hollandsworth MariaSell1.42K$10.3514.66K
2024-05-09Fils IraSell2.35K$10.3524.34K

Institutional holders

Latest filed quarter: Q2 2026.

Institutions holding: 154, holders +11 vs prior quarter. Ownership 97.41%.

HolderSharesChangeChange %Value
BIGLARI CAPITAL CORP.3.78M-222.60K-5.56%64.06M
BLACKROCK, INC.2.46M175.47K+7.68%41.72M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP2.05M36.11K+1.79%34.76M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT1.47M14.69K+1.01%24.96M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC1.26M164.92K+15.12%21.30M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC1.11M18.79K+1.72%18.81M
TIETON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC1.03M-23.57K-2.23%17.54M
FIRST EAGLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC995.80K420.51K+73.09%16.89M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP906.68K264.58K+41.20%15.38M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC887.62K219.91K+32.93%15.06M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP729.89K174.81K+31.49%12.38M
HILLSDALE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC.656.10K72.30K+12.38%11.13M
STATE STREET CORP628.22K21.91K+3.61%10.65M
BIGLARI, SARDAR489.25K00.00%8.30M
MONIMUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP455.98K17.71K+4.04%7.73M
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC449.93K-68.97K-13.29%7.63M
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC428.72K4.47K+1.05%7.27M
ARCHON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC420.69K306.19K+267.41%7.13M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC418.40K112.20K+36.64%7.10M
DIVISADERO STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP409.93K-22.37K-5.17%6.95M
HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC371.37K-154.09K-29.32%6.30M
RODGERS BROTHERS INC.352.30K-9.25K-2.56%5.98M
UBS GROUP AG336.59K284.44K+545.37%5.71M
MORGAN STANLEY316.18K133.48K+73.06%5.36M
ASSENAGON ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.301.50K148.74K+97.36%5.11M

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El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Stock Insights

LOCO$14.77+0.15 +0.99%

$449.35M

Market Cap

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P/E

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Forward P/E

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Score

Price History